Hello and welcome back to Max Q. I hope everyone had a peaceful holiday and a joyful New Year. Thanks again to all Max Q readers, whether you’ve been with me on many issues or you’re a recent subscriber. I’m so glad you’re here.
I will depart from my usual format for newsletters. Instead, with an egg in the face by the end of 2023, I wanted to make some predictions for next year and what I think it will be available to the space industry.
2022 may already be the the most blockbuster years in space in recent memory — at least since 1969. SpaceX’s historic rhythm, the launch of the Space Launch System and the return of the Orion capsule, technical demonstrations Big tech, ispace’s completely private moon mission… it’s been a big year.
Only one lots of to look forward to – a lot, that next year might even surpass this year to be the biggest year for the space industry. But many questions remain, especially regarding the short-term economic outlook, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and (ahem) some announced timelines may or may not materialize. Here are two predictions – click the link above to read the rest.
1. More pressure when debuting
It is clear that there will be increasing pressure on the launch market as more and more next-generation vehicles come online. We’re looking not just for heavy rockets — like SpaceX’s Starship and United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan — but also a range of smaller, mid-lift launch vehicles that are aimed at low cost and high tempo. . These include Relativity’s Terran 1, Astra’s Rocket 4, ABL Space Systems’ RS1, Rocket Factory Augsburg’s One launcher, and Orbex’s Prime micro-launcher. As we mentioned above, space industry timelines are notoriously complicated (and this caveat applies to the entire post), but it’s likely that at least some of the new rockets will fly once again. first next year.
Demonstrating new vehicles lowers prices and increases inventory, meaning more dates and launch dates are available for private and government concerns — and incumbents will need to work hard. force to keep the lead they have established.
2. Big developments from the UK, China and India
The international space scene will continue to evolve. While there’s much to look forward to from Europe, we’ve got our eyes on the UK, China and India. From the UK we hope to see the country launch into space for the first time with Virgin Orbit’s “Start Me Up” Quest from the Cornwall Cosmodrome. We are also expecting a lot of activity from the Indian Space Research Organization, as well as the launch Skyroot over there. China has had a successful 2022 — including completing its own space station in orbit and sending many astronauts — and we anticipate no slowdown next year as the nation This country seeks to keep pace with US industrial growth.
It is difficult to say exactly how the decentralization of private space beyond a handful of major vendors and launch locations will affect the industry, but it will certainly help diversify projects and stakeholders. The agency is entering orbit.
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