WASHINGTON — There’s been a big decline over the previous yr in voters who suppose their vote will probably be counted precisely, a pattern pushed primarily by Republicans — most of whom nonetheless consider false claims that President Joe Biden didn’t legitimately win the 2020 election, in response to a brand new NBC Information ballot.
Two-thirds of all registered voters, 66 p.c, say they’re assured their vote will probably be counted precisely, down from 85 p.c in October 2020. And 29 p.c say they don’t seem to be assured that their vote will probably be counted precisely sooner or later, in comparison with 11 p.c who mentioned the identical a yr in the past.
Whereas Democrats have stayed regular on the problem (89 p.c say they’re assured their vote will probably be counted precisely), Republicans’ confidence within the vote has fallen dramatically as former President Donald Trump has spent a lot of the previous yr making baseless and false claims about fraud within the 2020 presidential election.
Final yr, 84 p.c of Republicans mentioned they have been assured within the vote depend, about on par with Democrats. However now, 41 p.c of Republicans share that view, whereas 50 p.c say they don’t seem to be assured their vote will probably be counted precisely.
There’s been a slight uptick in mistrust amongst independents, too — from 84 p.c assured and 13 p.c not assured in October 2020 to 76 p.c assured and 22 p.c not assured now.
Simply 22 p.c of Republican adults consider that Biden was elected legitimately, whereas 71 p.c of independents and 93 p.c of Democrats mentioned they consider that Biden’s election was authentic.
General, 58 p.c of adults consider Biden was legitimately elected, whereas 38 p.c say he was not. Majorities of most demographic teams consider within the legitimacy of Biden’s election. However simply 35 p.c of rural voters, 42 p.c of whites with out a school diploma and 21 p.c of these not vaccinated in opposition to Covid-19 say Biden’s election was authentic.
As compared, after the contested 2000 presidential election in Florida was finally determined by the Supreme Court docket in a choice that decided the winner, the general public’s belief within the legitimacy of the presidential election dipped to an analogous level.
From January 2001, when he was inaugurated, to that November, the portion of adults who mentioned President George W. Bush’s election was authentic went from 55 p.c to 58 p.c, with the portion who felt it was not authentic dropping, from 39 p.c to 35 p.c.
Over that point, the overwhelming majority of Republicans (nearly 90 p.c) mentioned that Bush’s election was authentic, however the portion of Democrats who mentioned the identical grew from 20 p.c to 32 p.c by November.
The NBC Information ballot was performed Oct. 23-26 of 1,000 adults — 650 of whom have been reached solely by cellphone — and it has an general margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 proportion factors.
The margin of error for the ballot’s 820 registered voters is plus-minus 3.4 proportion factors.