Health

A new report suggests that the number of COVID-19 deaths may actually be up to three times higher than we thought


More than 6 million people have died from COVID-19 worldwide, according to official quantity. But the more comprehensive figure, which counts COVID-19 deaths directly or indirectly, could be as much as three times higher, according to the report. a new study published in Lancet.

“We can say with confidence that the pandemic has killed an additional 18.2 million people,” said Dr Chris Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington and a co-author of the paper.

Those 18.2 million people represent what epidemiologists call “excessive death,” Or the number of additional people who died in a given period — in this case, January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2021 — compared to the number of people expected to die during the same period. some time in the past. The new study draws on data from 74 countries that track excess deaths and uses computer models to extrapolate those figures to 191 countries worldwide.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

To understand the approximate number of deaths caused by COVID-19, the researchers compared deaths reported in 74 countries in 2020 and 2021 with previous data for 11 years. On average, 80% of the 18.2 million deaths beyond the expected number recorded on the death certificate were caused by COVID-19. The remaining 20% ​​are due to multiple causes, such as chronic diseases such as diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease, but the researchers identified these causes as well related to COVID-19. Saying blaming a heart attack on COVID-19 may seem like a giant leap, but the researchers determined that there is no other reason why deaths from cardiovascular and other diseases are increasing. increase in 2020 and 2021 except for overcrowded hospitals, fear of virus infection prevent people from visiting the doctor regularly care for their chronic conditions and other pandemic-related impediments to healthcare. Excessive deaths among the elderly, a population group particularly vulnerable to the worst effects of the virus, are more likely to be caused by COVID-19 than people in other age groups.

“Had one increase in deaths coded for dementia, Murray said. “But most likely these could be people in nursing homes or caregivers of the elderly who died and were never tested. [for COVID-19]. ”

Geography made a big difference, with which populations were most at risk of dying from COVID-19. Some places — including Iceland, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, and Taiwan — actually experienced a reduction in overall mortality during the two-year period studied compared with similar periods in the past. This could be because effective lockdown protocols lead to lower rates of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases like influenza, the researchers say. These pandemic measures also have the potential to reduce mortality from injuries that can occur outside of safer areas of the home.

But the numbers are much worse elsewhere. The worst-affected regions of the world are South Asia, North Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe. By country, the largest number of excess deaths occurred in India, with 4.07 million lives lost; US, 1.13 million USD; Russia, 1.07 million USD; Mexico, 798,000 and Brazil at 792,000.

Part of the reason those countries rank first is simply because their populations are high. A more accurate measure of pandemic deaths by country is the number of excess deaths per 100,000 people. Measured that way, the five hardest hit countries or regions are Bolivia, with 735 deaths per 100,000 people; Bulgaria, in 647 place; Eswatini, in southern Africa, is at 635; North Macedonia, with 584; and Lesotho, at position 563.

The authors of the paper carefully removed confounding factors unrelated to COVID-19. For example, the model they built excluded deaths potentially related to natural disasters such as heat waves — such as the one that occurred in Europe in July and August 2020. By contrast. , they included data showing an increase in opioid deaths in some areas of the United States, which is linked to pandemic isolation and reduced access to addiction treatments. And they are particularly mindful of officially-recorded excess deaths due to diabetes or obesity.

“We know that diabetes and obesity are the biggest risk factors, aside from age, for death from COVID,” says Murray. “So we pretty much doubt that it’s just miscoded COVID deaths.”

Immunization efforts are also hampered, especially among children in developing countries, which could lead to an increase in vaccine-preventable diseases. Around the world, the emotional and psychological effects of the pandemic’s fear and isolation may have taken its toll on deaths from an increase in depression and other mental conditions. The authors of the paper write: “There is compelling evidence that rates of anxiety and depression increase during pandemics,” which may lead to an increase in suicide deaths. ”

The study was not without flaws, particularly the 74 countries from which official mortality and cause of death reports were reliable, accounting for only 38% of the 191 countries included. to the article in general. No computer model is perfect, and attributing every one of the 18.2 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 to the pandemic may be an overestimation. The authors concede: “Direct measurement would be preferable for modeled excess mortality.

Yet another 18 million deaths occurred during a pandemic that is hard to explain otherwise. COVID-19 may not have claimed all the lives of those who died, but it certainly took a huge part. “We don’t have hard and fast evidence for it,” says Murray. “But we are saying that the majority of these 18.2 million people will not die but from the pandemic.”



Source link

news7h

News7h: Update the world's latest breaking news online of the day, breaking news, politics, society today, international mainstream news .Updated news 24/7: Entertainment, Sports...at the World everyday world. Hot news, images, video clips that are updated quickly and reliably

Related Articles

Back to top button