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Analysis-A hasty rebuilding could put Turkey at risk of another earthquake disaster.


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows collapsed and damaged buildings after an earthquake in Hatay, Turkey February 10, 2023. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

By Ceyda Caglayan and Can Sezer

ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s plan for rapid reconstruction after the devastating earthquake that rocked the country risks another disaster unless urban planning and building safety carefully reviewed, the architects and engineers said.

Days after Turkey’s worst earthquake in modern history, Erdogan vowed to rebuild the southern disaster zone within a year, a conservative estimate given at $25 billion and Others are expected to be much higher.

Authorities say more than 380,000 apartments in 105,794 buildings are in urgent need of demolition or have collapsed, out of a total of 2.5 million structures across the region.

According to Reuters calculations, the construction boom defined Erdogan’s two-decade rule in which his government collected about $38 billion in earthquake-related taxes. The tax, still in effect, could provide quick financing to start rebuilding efforts.

Faced with elections in June, Erdogan’s government has come under fire for both its response to the devastation and what many Turks see as long-running policies. years has caused tens of thousands of buildings to be destroyed so easily.

Mr. Erdogan said the government would cover the rent for those leaving the quake-hit cities. “We will rebuild these buildings within a year and give them back to the people,” he said.

But experts believe he needs to carefully enforce seismic safety standards and build safer structures in the area, which lies between one of three fault lines that cut through Turkey.

“Not only need to replace destroyed buildings, but also to re-plan cities based on scientific data such as not building on fault lines and learning from past mistakes.” Esin Koymen, former director of the Istanbul Economic Department said. architect.

“The first priority is new planning, not new buildings.”

MORE THAN 1 MILLION HOMESTAY

The earthquakes on February 6, also struck neighboring Syria, displaced more than a million people and killed more people than the latest official tally of 46,000 in both countries.

They ravaged southern Turkey in the dead of winter, with near-freezing overnight temperatures, leaving many emergency tents inadequate for the homeless. More than 2 million others have been evacuated from an area once home to more than 13 million people.

The earthquakes show the weakness of Turkey’s infrastructure, experts say, as they have devastated both modern and ancient buildings, including hospitals, mosques and homes. church and school.

Some are now worried that the government’s ambitious timeframe will leave little time to correct past mistakes.

“When they say ‘we start building in a month, we finish in a year’, without city planning, frankly, this means the disaster we are in. experienced went unnoticed,” said Nusret Suna, deputy director of the Police Department. Department of Civil Engineers.

“It takes months to draw up city plans… it would be a mistake to ignore them.”

Urbanization Minister Murat Kurum last week said the government would consider detailed geological surveys in the city’s reconstruction plan and tenders would be held.

“FRIENDLY COMPANY”

Bank of America JPMorgan (NYSE:NYSE) puts the cost of rebuilding homes, transmission lines and infrastructure at about $25 billion, or 2.5% of GDP. Another report from the business association Turkonfed estimated housing damage at $70.8 billion.

And analysts say the cost could exceed initial estimates.

For more than 20 years in power, Mr. Erdogan has used major real estate projects to showcase Turkey’s rising prosperity. Public and private buildings boosted jobs and new housing supply, and helped rank in his poll.

The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, which could be delayed by the earthquake, pose the biggest political challenge for Mr Erdogan to date as the cost-of-living crisis weighs on Turks The period before the disaster happened.

Some critics say the state has exacerbated the crisis by giving “friendly” companies lucrative construction contracts for years in return for political and financial support.

“Unfortunately, the rental system instead of science continues to dominate everything,” said Pinar Giritlioglu, head of the Istanbul City Planning Department.

The government has vowed to investigate anyone suspected of being responsible for the collapse of the buildings and has arrested dozens of people so far.

ANTI-DYNAMIC BUILDINGS

Although there is no definite data on more than 20 million buildings in the country, former Urbanization Minister Mehmet Ozhaseki said when he took office in mid-2018 that “probably more than 50% of all buildings” violated the regulations. about housing. The Department of Urbanization did not immediately respond to questions about current figures.

Opposition politicians accuse Mr. Erdogan’s government of failing to enforce construction regulations and misspending special taxes collected after the last major earthquake in 1999 to make buildings viable better earthquake resistance.

Erdogan has repeatedly denied what he calls lies by the opposition aimed at hindering investment.

In 2018, the government issued an amnesty for existing buildings that violated building codes – for a fee, a practice also practiced under governments prior to 1999.

According to Urbanization Minister Kurum, while the state agency TOKI has built only 1 million earthquake-resistant houses in the past two decades, accounting for about 5% of all buildings in Turkey, the private sector built more than 2 million permanent houses during the same period.



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