But the reality is that the world’s two leading nuclear powers are dueling each other for the most intense test of will since the fall of the Soviet Union. A Russian invasion of Ukraine could trigger the biggest clash of conventional armies in Europe since World War Two. For Americans is the prestige of the West, the perception of America’s global power, and the possibility of secondary consequences that weigh heavily on the home country – such as soaring energy prices due to the crisis.
The hero in the Kremlin, who has 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, is keeping the world guessing with a game of power poker. That’s exactly how Putin, who lives to take down his opponents, likes it. Some analysts believe that the Russian leader is deceiving and making threats of aggression to win equal pay for the superpower in negotiations with the US. Others point to the attempt to destabilize Ukraine in the context of an invasion or a nationalist game for popularity at home. But Putin can also sense American weakness and division in Europe, and reason that if he ever smothered Ukraine’s hopes for a pro-Western future, now is the time.
With the United States denying his request, and with so much of his credibility clouded by the crisis, it seems unlikely that he will pack up and go home.
“The only thing I’m confident about is that that decision is absolutely, only, absolutely, Putin’s decision,” Biden said at a White House press conference on Wednesday. “No one else is going to make that decision; no one else is going to influence that decision. He’s making that decision.”
Why Ukraine is important to Putin
To understand that decision, it is necessary to appreciate why Ukraine is so important to the Russian leader. For the former KGB officer, the collapse of the Soviet Union was a historic disaster. He interpreted NATO’s eastward expansion as an affront to a great civilization. This explains why he demanded concessions that Biden could never accept – including ensuring that Ukraine would never join NATO and demanding the removal of Western troops and weapons from the alliances. former Warsaw Pact states such as Poland and Romania, which he considers a threat to Russian security. .
“But think about what he has,” continued the President. “He has eight time zones, a burning tundra that won’t freeze naturally, a situation where he has a lot of oil and gas, but he’s trying to find his place in the middle world. China and the West.”
Biden’s Strategy
Putin’s challenges help explain Biden’s approach to the crisis. He has spent weeks trying to unite Western allies, which Putin is trying to divide, on a package of sanctions that could effectively cut Russia off from the Western economy. This is why Biden’s comments Wednesday were so damaging – as he essentially acknowledged the West was not on the same page. But he is also telling the truth. For example, French President Emmanuel Macron this week called for a European channel for Putin, offering to split with the US for the Russian leader to exploit.
Just as sanctions promise to disrupt many of Russia’s links with the developed world, Biden appears to be playing a risky mind game with Putin as he tackles his lonely decision. He paints a picture of a protracted and bloody uprising in Ukraine at a time when Washington is weighing an effort to arm the Kyiv government like the Afghan Mujahedeen who ousted the Soviet Union from Afghanistan in the 1980s.
“You can go in and over time, with great economic loss, go in and occupy Ukraine. But how many years? One? Three? Five? Ten? It’s going to happen? In fact. It’s that. consequences,” Biden said Wednesday. The chances of a quagmire in Ukraine must weigh heavily on Putin, given his sensitivity to political opposition and the high numbers of conscripts in the Russian military who could be starting to return home in body bags. It could also add to a more limited infiltration of special and irregular forces and intelligence assets.
One of the most curious aspects of the US approach to the Ukraine crisis is the US rhetoric about an impending invasion and the leaking of intelligence reports about the Russian accumulation. . It is difficult to say whether the authorities have covered up their politics to show they are not surprised if Russian tanks cross the border. Washington may also emphasize the threat to press the Europeans into threats of sanctions. For example, the US has long been at odds with Germany over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, built to transport Russian gas to Western Europe. The new government in Berlin has now signaled that it will stop the flow of gas if Russia invades Ukraine. Still, it sometimes seems like the US has come close to poking fun at Putin with their claims of a likely invasion – including those by Biden on Wednesday. Such a tactic could increase the pressure on the Russian leader – but it’s a big gamble.
Republicans Attack Biden
But Putin is not the only one under great political pressure. So does Biden.
A Russian invasion would represent a serious challenge to Europe – which still relies on the US as guarantor of security – creating a foreign policy headache for a term. the president is already reeling from crises. World politics will be rocked by a ostracized Russia even determined to defeat Washington’s goals. Biden may have to rush troops to bolster NATO allies in the Baltic to stave off Russian expansionism. And a new European stalemate will distract the United States from its main strategic struggle in the coming decades: the global challenge posed by China.
Furthermore, the principles that underpin American leadership of a community of free nations would be broken if a strongman could destroy a smaller democracy without consequence. In particular, China and Taiwan will monitor the US response.
The crisis also has far-reaching domestic implications.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell addressed those attacks on Thursday, describing Biden’s comments about a possible “small incursion” of Russia as “strange and devastating.” .”
“Why is our President speculating as a passive observer on the sidelines? He is not an expert. He is not Putin’s psychoanalyst. He is the President of the United States of America. United,” said the Kentucky Republican.
His scornful critique emphasizes that Biden, like Putin, cannot afford to lose the test of will that will unfold in the tense days to come.
