Astros sign theft scandal will likely hurt Carlos Beltran’s 2023 Hall of Fame chances

Carlos Beltran’s Hall of Fame resume is pretty much complete as we head into 2017, his 40s season.

The best rookie of the year of the 1999 US National Championship ended an impressive career. He topped 400 homers, 300 stolen bases, 2,600 hits, 1,500 runs, 1,500 RBI and has a whopping 70.9 bWAR. His place as one of the greatest pitchers in baseball has been secured; he’s had more hits, more RBIs, more doubles, more triples, and more stolen bases than Mickey Mantle, the gold standard for transforming hit stars.

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All he’s really missing is a World Series ring, and he’s seen as one of the potential final pieces needed for the rising Houston Astros, whose young stars just need a little bit more. veteran leader – and pops from both sides of the disc – to put it all together. Beltran signed as a freelance agent in December 2016.

When the Astros defeated the Dodgers in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series, Beltran had the long-awaited championship. I was on the pitch after the final with the rest of the media, the players and family members. I saw his smile, one I couldn’t take my eyes off, as he hugged his son and celebrated the end of a long career with teammates and former Astros icons.

His legacy seems secure, his place in Cooperstown now secure.

Only, it’s not.

In February 2020, news of the Astros’ nefarious sign theft scandal broke. And not only did Beltran participate, but he also reported as motivation behind cheating. Is different The report indicates that this was not a scheme Beltran had first joined after he had arrived in Houston. His reputation is forever polluted

The scandal cost him his new job, as a Mets manager, ahead of his first game.

But what about his Hall of Fame chance? That is a good question. He’s on the ballot for the first time next winter, as part of the potential 2023 class. We haven’t really seen a case like this. Definitely cheating with PED. That’s what kept Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro out of Cooperstown. But stealing signs illegally is not the same as using a PED. No health problems, just a big competition.

Will it have the same effect? Is that an unbridgeable bridge for Hall of Fame voters? And it’s not just about Beltran, even though he’s the first. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa have a lot of years left in their careers – and then a five-year wait before they qualify for the BBWAA vote – but they’re on the Cooperstown track. Maybe Alex Bregman too.

Of course, it is impossible to know what the landscape will look like 15 years from now.

I’m a Walk of Fame voter and honestly, I’m undecided on Beltran. At the World Series this past fall, I spoke with half a dozen other Hall voters on this exact topic, knowing that Beltran would on the ballot for 2023. Some told me the scandal would not affect their ballot, while others were unsure how they would approach the ballot. I will be speaking to more voters, and others in the game, over the next year. Honestly, I don’t know how voters will approach Beltran, although I feel it’s relatively certain that he won’t enter Cooperstown on his first ballot.

Let’s take a look at his field resume.

The test slip switch is at 8th position at all times on bWAR for central fields, at 70.1; The average Hall of Fame holder is 71.6, just a hair taller than Beltran. In a vacuum, that would bode well for his chances of being elected, if not on his first ballot once earlier. He’s been a nine-time All-Star, three-time Golden Glove, and two-time Silver Skater, and he’s received MVP votes for seven seasons (though usually by secret ballot).

He’s one of only five players in MLB history to have at least 400 home players and 300 bases stolen – he has 435 and 312 respectively – and the rest are Willie Mays, Andre Dawson, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. He regularly plays the All-Star Game, with three Golden Gloves

And he is a post-season monster. Remember his 2004 performance with the Astros? In 12 games playing for the Astros, he hit eight hosts with 14 RBIs, six stolen bases, averages of 0.435 and 1,557 OPS. In the 65 post-season games of his career, Beltran finished with a .305/.412/.609 slash, with 16 home runs, 11 RBIs, and 42 RBIs, in walking ( 37) more than the number of attacks (33). He didn’t make it to the World Series until that 2017 season with the Astros, but his team’s failure in the NLCS wasn’t his fault; in 26 NLCS games in his career, Beltran hit .326 with eight host sets, 17 RBIs, seven stolen bases, and 1,126 OPS. Though all anyone seems to remember is the so-called triple attack against Adam Wainwright in 2006.

And while he likely has stats to join, he’s not a solid padlock. Remember that 70.1 bWAR? Well, another elite central minion, Kenny Lofton, finished with 68.4 bWAR and 622 stolen bases (15th all-time) and he didn’t even get 5% of the vote the minimum required to stay on the ballot for another year. To be clear, Lofton voting after his first year was a farce – he was certainly the victim of a crowded vote for the Class of 2013 and a maximum of 10 votes – and I’m not saying that Beltran even will even approach Hall with the same fate. Just pointing out that if Lofton wasn’t deemed worthy of a top 10 spot in the voter election, Beltran probably wouldn’t be seen by most as a padlock.

It’s reasonable to think that the Astros sign-stealing scandal would ensure that he doesn’t get elected in his first year on the ballot.