The San Francisco 49ers have a long way to go if they want to win their first Super Bowl since 1995. WOMENnot necessarily because they will face a lot of strong competition – NFC is pretty weak this year – but because they have to win four games in a row with Mr. Irrelevant of 2022 below center. Leading to the knockout round, that did not hinder the 49ers in spite of. They won 10 consecutive games, five of which featured Purdy as the team’s signal caller. He is yet to score a game with fewer than two touches and has a passing tally of 119 since taking over from injured Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s a great story and bettors seem inclined to think it’s something more.
What are the odds?
Based on US Odds, since Week 18 of the regular season ended, the 49ers have seen a staggering 17.7% stakes on them to win the Super Bowl. What’s even crazier is that in most cases these numbers show great odds against a underrated team, but the 49ers don’t have that problem. They have the third best odds to win it all (+500), just behind the Kansas City Chiefs (+350) and the Buffalo Bills (+400). In fact, the team with the second most bets to win the Lombardi Cup, the Cincinnati Bengals, has an even worse odds of winning it all (+850). Normally, I think bettors would flock to the team will not only pay more when it comes to winning it all, but also one more win away than it did last year.
Weak NFC can lead to bettors for the 49ers?
Is NFC really so bad that bettors are willing to make less money to gain confidence in supporting the hottest team in NFC? It seems so and they have reason to believe in SF’s chances. During the year, the 49ers let their opponents score just 16.3 points per game, while scoring 33.5 points per game with Purdy in midfield. Finish a full 17-game season, this equates to 277 points allowed and 570 points given. There was only one team in the Super Bowl Era that allowed less totals while scoring more: BILLIONMr. 2007 New England Patriots, who went 16-0 in the regular season.
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Great numbers don’t always get you a Super Bowl victory
However, as I’m sure all of you know, that team didn’t win the Super Bowl. That said, of the seven teams to have scored 500 or more points in a season while allowing fewer than 300, five went on to represent their conference in the Super Bowl (the 1998 Vikings and 2019 Ravens did not). Only two actually won it all — the 1999 Rams and 1994 49ers. By that logic, the odds of the 49ers reaching the Super Bowl should be pretty high, so why is there still a sense of unease in regard to them winning it all?
Bet on Brock?
Purdy is the obvious answer. Despite playing phenomenally well, he is still a seventh-round rookie. Another factor may be the 49ers’ lack of difficult opponents since Purdy came into the fold. Although Purdy did face two playoff teams, he only faced one with a winning record — the Seattle Seahawks. I’ll admit, even as a 49ers fan, this scares me a bit as well. With such an inexperienced man under center, it’s hard to come back if the 49ers fall behind early. Since Purdy took over the starting gig, the 49ers have had only one game where the team was forced to throw the ball more often than they ran it — Week 17 against the Las Vegas Raiders. That was a game the 49ers should’ve dominated. I mean, for goodness sake, the Raiders didn’t even play Derek Carr in that game, yet when push came to shove, Purdy had a difficult time pulling out the win. Who knows? If Tashaun Gipson didn’t make that game-sealing interception in overtime, maybe the 49ers wouldn’t have ended the season on a ten-game win streak.
Can the 49ers play from behind?
Yes, Purdy eventually did pull the 10-point comeback, but he should’ve never been in that position. What happens when the 49ers fall behind against an offense like Philadelphia’s or Buffalo’s that doesn’t succumb to pressure and can consistently score even against the best defenses in the NFL? That’s where I’m worried.
Best of the bunch?
Given the problems every other team in the NFC has, I wouldn’t be surprised if the 49ers represented their conference in the Super Bowl, but should they go up against the Chiefs, Bills, or Bengals, I’d have a hard time believing they’d win. They’ve already lost by 21 to the Chiefs this season, and while the 49ers did make the switch at quarterback a few weeks later, and perhaps hadn’t come into form at that point yet, 21 points is still a lot. Yes, Tom Brady and the Bucs beat the New Orleans Saints in the 2020 playoffs after losing 38-3 in the regular season, but Purdy isn’t Brady, despite their low draft statuses.
The talent is there — but can they put it all together?
The 49ers have the talent to win it all. That’s undeniable. However, the quarterback position is and has long been the most important position in football, and quarterbacks making their first career postseason start tend to struggle.
How rookie QBs have fared in recent years
Since the NFL changed its playoff format in 2002, teams with quarterbacks making their first-ever postseason starts have gone 24-46, including a poor performance 1-4 last season (Carr, Hurts, Jones, Murray, Burrow). To be fair, the only QB to have won, Joe Burrow, made it to the Super Bowl, and one game away from Ja’Marr Chase is to win that one. I expect the 49ers to beat the Seahawks, as they have done twice this year. So with that said, maybe the 49ers have a phenomenal chance after all.
