News

Brazil may have its own January 6 moment – or worse | Opinions


On October 2, Brazil will hold its ninth democratic election since the end of the military regime in 1985. But this fledgling democracy, the second largest in the Western Hemisphere, is on the way. threatened. The biggest threat comes from current far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who is seeking re-election.

Bolsonaro is significantly behind challenger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with recent polls showing only 31 percent of voters supporting him. But defeat to Bolsonaro does not mean that Brazil will immediately return to the path to democracy, prosperity or political sobriety.

Bolsonaro has a fervent support base, many of them armed extremists, from the military, police and militias similar to the Proud Boys in the United States. If he loses at the polls, there is an imminent danger that Brazil will experience something similar to the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. Or worse.

As president, Bolsonaro used the highest office in the country to fan the flames of misinformation. This trend became tragically evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, when he personally promote the use of unproven (and now disproven) treatments and opposition to vaccination. The result is Brazil bag some of the highest mortality rates in the world.

As his first term drew to a close, Bolsonaro increased his attacks on the Brazilian electoral system. He’s recently declare that the counting machine had errors, but there was no proof. The High Electoral Court (TSE), the body responsible for election security, strongly rejected Bolsonaro’s baseless claims. But as polling day approaches, the president’s speech becomes even more radical, as he seeks to rally his base against the electoral institutions that are the backbone of Brazilian democracy.

We are not suggesting that Bolsonaro would lead a traditional coup, with tanks rolling down the street, as happened in 1964. But we do see major threats to democracy and have could revolt if, as predicted, Bolsonaro loses at the polls. Here’s why.

Bolsonaro joined the army in the 1970s, during the military dictatorship of Brazil (1964-1985). He has spent most of his career defending the regime and positioning himself as an advocate of torture and genocide.

Bolsonaro has a dangerous rivalry with the military, which continues to be largely conservative, which has endured no serious reforms or purges after the end of the dictatorship.

The current vice president and his new executive are senior generals. According to monitoring groups, the number of military personnel in government roles has also doubled during Bolsonaro’s tenure.

Some retired generals have taken up security roles, but others have been strategically placed in positions where they have no expertise, such as the health ministry. Other appointments show how the Bolsonaro government has militarized its relationship with certain segments of society. For example, of the 39 political appointees in Bolsonaro’s FUNAI, the government organization that deals with indigenous peoples of Brazil, the majority have police or military backgrounds. This makes Bolsonaro’s government one of the most militarized in Latin America – second only to Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuela.

During his tenure, Bolsonaro severed Brazil’s democratic institutions and fueled dissent against the government’s anti-democracy, to the extent that some of his generals refused to defend the abolitionist system. existing votes before the polls.

One of the military appointees to the country’s High Electoral Court was also suspended from his participation earlier this month, for making baseless claims about voter fraud. This shows the scale of suspicion that has been raised in elections by forces close to the president.

If a pro-Bolsonaro uprising occurs, it will likely be waged by the president’s armed establishment, which includes police, soldiers, and radically armed civilians. Many members of these professions embraced Bolsonaro’s radical views and declared allegiance to him, possibly despite the chain of military command to which they belonged.

This makes it possible for them to commit acts of violence that undermine democracy if they believe that is what Bolsonaro wants. All of this must also be understood in the context of Brazil’s high levels of state violence.

The most striking feature of the Brazilian police force is its lethality. In 2020 alone, according to Amnesty International, police killed 6,416 people. The state of Rio de Janeiro, where Bolsonaro holds congressional office and spent most of his political career, has one of the deadliest police forces in the country.

The frequent police killings, especially of low-income Blacks, became a horrifying fact of life in the city. Regular Bolsonaro praise police violence and even said that they should get a medal for murder. It is easy to imagine how this mentality could be used against political protesters in the case of mass mobilization to defend democracy.

Bolsonaro’s tough words did not only attract the police. It resonated with a significant portion of the population tired of the daily violence in Brazil and frustrated with the government’s apparent inability to tackle crime and social problems. Bolsonaro, while ironically failing to protect his citizens, has encouraged vigilance, especially by promoting gun rights, which until recently were restricted. made in Brazil.

Bolsonaro provided support Legal changes to make guns easier, and frequently promotes gun culture and violence. Between 2018 and 2022, gun licenses have increased by 473%. Bolsonaro frequently poses with his thumb and index finger in a gun shape, especially on the campaign trail. In 2021, he told a group of supporters: “Everybody needs to buy a gun, man. Armed people were never enslaved.”

“You can’t be enslaved” is a frequent refrain, as Bolsonaro has always suggested that Brazil is teetering on the brink of becoming a communist country. He portrayed political opponents not as democratic competitors, but as enemies who threatened to be defeated at all costs.

He and his sons have frequently called for violence against leftists. During the 2018 election, he urged his supporters to shoot Brazilians who voted for progressive candidates.

This provocative rhetoric could have foreseen tragic consequences. In July 2022, one of Bolsonaro’s supporters did exactly that: He attacked the birthday party of Marcelo Arruda, a leftist political figure, and assassinated him. During the protests, Bolsonaro supporters marched through the streets with mock coffins featuring pictures of several Supreme Court justices.

Many Brazilian organizations are campaigning against Bolsonaro’s campaign to undermine electoral and democratic institutions. As election day approached, the TSE worked to bring additional transparency to the process, including military personnel and representatives of civil society monitoring and reminding police commanders of their duty to security and order throughout the voting period. In addition, various professional organizations, including bar associations and judges, have publicly supported the TSE and the electoral process.

The consequences of the election and the peaceful transfer of power are yet to be seen if Bolsonaro loses the election. Even if Bolsonaro loses and no uprising occurs, the incoming president will need to remove military members from the government, deal with increasingly fascist police and restrict access to guns. None of this will be easy, but Brazil’s democracy depends on it.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial views of Al Jazeera.



Source link

news7h

News7h: Update the world's latest breaking news online of the day, breaking news, politics, society today, international mainstream news .Updated news 24/7: Entertainment, Sports...at the World everyday world. Hot news, images, video clips that are updated quickly and reliably

Related Articles

Back to top button