Sports

BRENNAN BETS: For NFL picks, I should listen to me more often

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Tua Tagovailoa is a smart man.

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Requested about all of the speak of his workforce buying and selling for embattled Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, the Miami Dolphins sign caller replied:  

“I do hear it. I simply don’t take heed to it.”

I do know precisely what he means.  

There’s a bit voice in my head that tells me the fitting workforce to select in each recreation when handicapping NFL video games.  

However I tune it out nearly half the time.

Name it stubbornness. Or stupidity.  

I ought to take heed to me extra usually.

I knew higher than to take the Washington workforce with no identify at Lambeau Area in opposition to the red-hot Inexperienced Bay Packers, who on Sunday as a result of the primary workforce in NFL historical past to reel off six straight wins following a season opening loss by at the very least 35 factors.  

I used to be lured by the 7 1/2 factors I used to be getting, nevertheless it’s simply plain dumb to guess in opposition to Aaron Rodgers, who has thrown 15 landing cross and one interception in the course of the streak.

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What was I pondering by backing the Philadelphia Eagles in opposition to the Las Vegas Raiders?

I knew the three factors wasn’t sufficient in opposition to Derek Carr, who receives zero respect regardless of the very fact he has handed for extra yards (2,269) this season than each quarterback not named Tom Brady.  

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles in the first half at Allegiant Stadium Oct. 24, 2021. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws the ball in opposition to the Philadelphia Eagles within the first half at Allegiant Stadium Oct. 24, 2021. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports activities)

Perhaps we’ll all begin leaning a bit extra Carr’s approach after Sunday’s 33-22 win through which he related on 31-of-34 throws. The 91.2 completion proportion is the second highest single recreation mark ever by a quarterback who tried at the very least 30 passes. The file is held by Drew Brees, who accomplished 29-of-30 passes (96.67 p.c) because the Saints beat the Colts 34-7 on Dec. 16, 2019.

And the Chicago Bears, properly, don’t get me began.  

Truthfully, I don’t guess the Bears as a result of I’m a Bears fan. I do know the distinction between my head and my coronary heart.  

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I simply actually thought they’d at the very least cowl a 12 1/2 level unfold in opposition to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers every week after Rodgers whipped them once more and rubbed it of their face, and Brady publicly mocked them.  

I didn’t anticipate Justin Fields would take such an enormous step backwards and {that a} sixth spherical working again can be the one Chicago participant to indicate up.

In the meantime, Brady’s doing issues not even Brady has executed earlier than.  

His 18 landing passes by the primary 4 video games at house is essentially the most of any quarterback in NFL historical past.

For the primary time in his profession he has at the very least 200 completions (203) and 20 TD passes (21) within the first seven video games of the season.  

Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown in the first quarter against the Chicago Bears in the game at Raymond James Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates with teammates after scoring a landing within the first quarter in opposition to the Chicago Bears within the recreation at Raymond James Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photograph by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Photographs)

Solely two different quarterbacks in NFL historical past have completed the feat: Andrew Luck in 2018 and Peyton Manning in 2013.

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When Tony Romo joked that Brady didn’t care about conserving the ball that he threw to change into the primary QB to ever heave 600 TD passes — saying that he’ll simply get No. 700 as a substitute — you began doing the mathematics.

He ought to hit that mark halfway by the 2023 season.  

You already know, when he’s 46.  

Anyway, I needs to be pleased with a 7-5 file (heading into Monday) in a tricky week that noticed three groups arrange as double-digit favourites. These video games are all the time powerful to name, however I did get two of them proper, taking Jared Goff and the chip on his shoulder to cowl in opposition to the Rams and the Cardinals to return by regardless of giving up every week excessive 17 1/2 factors to Houston.

My solely remorse with the latter is I initially had the Texans scoring 5 factors, however then thought that they had a significantly better likelihood of kicking two discipline objectives then sacking Kyler Murray ultimately zone for a security.  

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So my 40-6 prediction was a bit bit off the ultimate rating of 31-5.

To not toot my very own horn however I did have the Bengals as a Greatest Guess whereas underdogs getting 6 1/2 factors from the Ravens, and I picked them to win outright by a 33-20 rating – despite the fact that Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson entered the day with a 5-0 profession mark in opposition to Cincinnati.

The Bengals walked away with a 41-17 victory

The rating prediction was off as a result of I forgot Ja’Marr Chase is so good (see beneath).

I additionally gave the Jets approach an excessive amount of respect, predicting they might lose 27-10 to the Pats, who beat them 54-13. I’ll by no means make that mistake once more.

I used to be particularly completely satisfied to see the Sunday evening recreation evolve the best way it did. In case you missed it …..

WENTZ IS A WINNER

If not for the accidents he will get enjoying as exhausting as he does, Carson Wentz would most likely nonetheless be in Philadelphia with a Tremendous Bowl MVP award on his resume.  

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As a substitute, he’s in Indianapolis, clearly becoming proper in with the Colts.

Wentz gained the head-to-head with Jimmy Garoppolo because the underdogs prevailed 30-18 on a wet, miserable-looking evening in San Francisco.  

Each groups desperately wanted the victory, and Wentz willed the third in 4 video games for the guests.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz (2) passes the football against San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) during the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium October 24, 2021. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz (2) passes the soccer in opposition to San Francisco 49ers defensive finish Nick Bosa (97) in the course of the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium October 24, 2021. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports activities)

Their numbers have been equally unspectacular:

Wentz accomplished 17-of-26 for 150 yards, with two landing passes and no interceptions.

Jimmy G. was good on 16-of-27 for 181 yards, one TD and two picks.

Garoppolo additionally fumbled twice, shedding one in all them, whereas sacked twice for 12 yards.

Wentz fumbled twice, shedding one, and was sacked as soon as for 3 yards.

The latter additionally had a few gutty runs amongst his 4 carries for 23 yards and a landing.

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“They have been def not splendid circumstances,” Wentz stated afterwards of the situations, “however we had enjoyable with it.”

Wentz is Philip Rivers, with out the arm power. And final season, whereas turning 39, Rivers led the identical Colts to an 11-5 file earlier than shedding 27-24 within the wild card recreation to the Payments.

Wentz is nineteenth amongst beginning quarterbacks within the passing yardage class, however he’s thrown only one interception will 11 TD passes this season.  

That’s taking good care of the pigskin.

Wentz now has a number of TD passes together with zero interceptions in 4 straight video games, tying Peyton Manning (2006-07) for the longest such streak in franchise historical past.

“I’m loving all the pieces he’s doing,” Colts linebacker Darius Leonard informed the NBC Sports activities guys after the sport. “He’s being an awesome chief, an awesome teammate, and he’s doing an awesome job by shutting these rattling doubters up.”

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Darius Leonard #53 of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates a defensive stop against the San Francisco 49ers during the second half at Levi’s Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Darius Leonard #53 of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates a defensive cease in opposition to the San Francisco 49ers in the course of the second half at Levi’s Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Photographs)

Leonard sounded irked with “anyone speaking trash” about Wentz after his fall from grace in Philadelphia.  

“Folks gotta perceive that is the following chapter in his life and he’s stepping up in each approach he presumably can,” stated Leonard. “I simply pray that he continues to get higher and continues to steer this offence.”

If he does, the Colts nonetheless have a shot on the AFC South crown. They’ve acquired a great defence, an enormous play receiver in Michael Pittman, and Jonathan Taylor, who’s now second in speeding yards behind Derrick Henry.

The Colts (3-4) host the first-place Titans (5-2) in an enormous AFC South matchup subsequent Sunday.

Opening line from the DraftKings Sportsbook has the Colts favoured by one.

Different early Week 8 odds from the individuals at DraftKings:

Packers +3 1/2 at Cardinals

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Rams -14 1/2 at Texans

Steelers +3 at Browns

Eagles -3 1/2 at Lions

49ers -3 1/2 at Bears

Panthers +3 at Falcons

Dolphins +13 1/2 at Payments

Bengals -10 at Jets

Patriots +5 1/2 at Chargers

Jaguars +3 1/2 at Seahawks

Washington +3 at Broncos

Bucs -4 1/2 at Saints

Cowboys -2 at Vikings

Giants +9 1/2 at Chiefs

THINGS THAT MAKE YOU GO HMMM …

The Panthers have the third greatest defence within the league by way of yards allowed per recreation, at 307.4 behind simply the Payments (270.2) and Browns (295.6). So how did they lose 25-3 to a Giants workforce that was lacking Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and Kadarious Toney? Sam Darnold, that’s how. The Carolina QB accomplished 16-of-25 for simply 111 yards and an interception. In the course of the workforce’s present 4 recreation shedding streak he has seven picks and jus 4 TD passes. No marvel the Panthers are supposedly desirous about Watson … Panthers missed Christian McCaffrey greater than ever earlier than. Canadian Chuba Hubbard had simply 28 yards speeding (on 12 carries) and 28 yards receiving (on 4 catches) … The Cardinals are 7-0 for the primary time since 1974. That season they completed 10-4 then misplaced the divisional playoff recreation 30-14 in Minnesota … The Jets nonetheless haven’t scored a primary quarter level. The final workforce to be held off the board within the opening quarter-hour of the primary six video games was the 2008 Detroit Lions. They completed the season 0-16 …  

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TAKE IT TO THE BANK …

The fan who was handed Brady’s 600 TD ball by Mike Evans, who was unaware of the milestone, gave it again to the Bucs for the promise of one other recreation ball, a signed jersey, and $1000 to spend within the workforce retailer. Clearly, he wasn’t pondering. That ball might have made him a really wealthy man had he bought it on the open market … Simple cash was made for anybody betting Zach Ertz would go to the top zone in his first recreation with the Cardinals, who might nearly put up factors at will (after a gradual begin) in opposition to the Texans. On Nationwide Tight Ends Day, Ertz really scored the longest landing of his profession when he    attached with Kyler Murray on a 47-yarder within the third quarter. The previous Eagle, who had three catches for 66 yards, additionally turned the primary participant to catch a TD cross for 2 totally different groups in consecutive weeks … No one noticed this coming – within the 27-3 loss to the Titans, Patrick Mahomes had his first profession recreation with out 250 yards passing or a passing TD. He additionally threw an interception for a sixth straight recreation.  

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CHASING HISTORY …

At 21 years and 237 day outdated, Bengals rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase was the second youngest participant in league historical past to have at the very least 200 receiving yards in a single recreation when he reached 201 in opposition to the Ravens. The youngest to perform the feat was Mike Evans at 21 years and 87 days outdated … Chase now has 754 receiving yards, behind solely Rams WR Cooper Kupp, who’s at 809. No receiver in NFL historical past has been off to a quicker begin by seven video games. The earlier file of 685 yards was held by the Bears’ Harlon Hill in 1954 … Chase and Falcons TE Kyle Pitts (163) are the primary gamers 21 years outdated or youthful to have greater than 150 yards receiving yards on the identical week.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT …

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle had seven catches for 83 yards in a 30-28 loss to the Falcons. The efficiency gave him 44 receptions on the season, transferring him previous Anquan Boldin (42 in 2003) and Michael Thomas (42 in 2016) for the second most by a receiver within the first seven video games of his profession. The file of 46 is held by former Bronco Eddie Royal, who in 2008 had 46 catches in his first seven video games … With 174 completions to this point, Mac Jones is   solely the third quarterback in NFL historical past to search out his goal with at the very least 170 passes in his first seven begins. The opposite two are Joe Burrow (195) and Justin Herbert (181) … Burrow has tied a Bengals franchise file set by Boomer Esiason with 17 landing passes by the primary seven video games of the season. After setting the mark in 1988, Esiason slowed down considerably, ending with 28 TD passes together with 14 interceptions and three,572 passing yards. Nonetheless, he was named the NFL MVP, regardless of the very fact Jim Everett had extra scoring throws (31) and three different QBs – Dan Marino (4,434), Everett (3,964) and Randall Cunningham (3,808) – had extra passing yards. Esiason was given the nod for main the Bengals from a 4-11 mark in 1987 to an AFC-best 12-4 one 12 months later … Cherished Burrow’s reply when informed on the post-game podium somebody had in contrast him to Joe Montana. “Calm down,” he stated bashfully, a few occasions. “Let me be me.”

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UPDATED NFL CHART 

IN ORDER, THE COLUMNS ARE:

FAVOURITE LINE UNDERDOG

THE TEAM THAT COVERED IS IN CAPS

BROWNS 2 Broncos

PACKERS 7 1/2 Washington

Chiefs 5 TITANS  

Falcons 2 1/2 DOLPHINS

PATRIOTS 7 Jets

Panthers 3 GIANTS

Ravens 6 1/2 BENGALS

RAIDERS 3 Eagles

Rams 15 LIONS

CARDINALS 17 1/2 Texans

BUCS 12 1/2 Bears  

Sunday evening

Niners 4 COLTS

Monday  

Saints 4 1/2 Seahawks

Solar betting columnist Don Brennan:

THIS WEEK: 7-5

SEASON: 57-48-1

BEST BETS THIS WEEK: 3-0

BEST BETS SEASON: 14-7

Fantasy Soccer guru Dan Bilicki:

THIS WEEK: 5-7

SEASON: 47-58-1

BEST BETS THIS WEEK: 0-0

BEST BETS SEASON: 4-2

NFL columnist Rob Longley:

THIS WEEK: 8-4

SEASON: 58–47-1

BEST BETS THIS WEEK: 1-0

BEST BETS SEASON: 6-0  

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