BRENNAN’S BETS: NFL Week 7 picks

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BEST BETS

BENGALS 4-2 AT RAVENS 5-1

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LINE: Baltimore by 6 1/2

CHEWABLE: I turned a Cincinnati Reds fan after I was 10 years outdated. Beloved the Massive Pink Machine — Johnny Bench, Pete Rose, Lee Could, Tony Perez — and bear in mind pretending to be sick so I may keep residence from college to observe them in Recreation 3 of the 1970 World Collection. They’d misplaced the primary two and so they wanted me. Because it turned out, all my cheering via a TV from North Bay didn’t assist. The Reds misplaced that recreation and three extra, happening to Boog Powell, Brooks Robinson, Bobby Grich, Frank Robinson and the remainder of the Orioles in 5. On Sunday, Cincinnati exacts a small measure of revenge in opposition to Baltimore. There are good causes to love the Bengals over the favoured Ravens: Their thrilling offence led by Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and their eighth-ranked (complete yards) defence that has the fifth-best factors allowed (18.5) per recreation. The Ravens are the most popular staff within the AFC with 5 straight wins, however they squeaked by the Lions and wanted OT to beat the Colts. The Bengals are 4-2 and would have a four-game successful streak going had they prevailed in OT in opposition to the Packers. Because the man who stated the Jags would finish their 20-game dropping streak by beating the Dolphins 24-21 (Jacksonville received 23-20), I’m calling this the upset of Week 7.

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TAKING: CINCINNATI +6 1/2

SCORE: Bengals 33, Ravens 20 (Coincidentally sufficient, Orioles outscored Reds 33-20 within the ’70 Collection).

JETS 1-4 AT PATRIOTS 2-4

LINE: New England by 7

CHEWABLE: Is that this a trick? The quantity appears method low. Pats-Jets video games are like watching a Disney film. You recognize there’s going to be a contented ending for the Pats. They’ve received the previous 11 conferences and haven’t misplaced in regulation to the Jets in 22 video games. In Week 2, they intercepted rookie QB Zach Wilson 4 instances on their option to a 25-6 pasting. Including to their urgency for the same result’s the very fact the Pats are 0-4 at residence this season. They have been 20-4 at Gillette Stadium in Tom Brady’s final three seasons with the staff … Wilson should have loved not getting intercepted or sacked final week. He leads the league within the former class, with 9, and is second within the latter with 18 … Whereas he’ll make life uncomfortable once more for Wilson, Invoice Belichick may need to take this chance to open issues up for his personal rookie QB. Mac Jones has but to throw for greater than the 281 yards he had in his debut in opposition to the Dolphins. He did hit a career-high 10.9 yards per completion in final week’s six-point loss to the Cowboys … Victories are too uncommon for the Pats that they dare take the Jets frivolously.

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TAKING: NEW ENGLAND -7

SCORE: Patriots 27, Jets 10

TEXANS 1-5 AT CARDINALS 6-0

LINE: Arizona by 17 1/2

CHEWABLE: It’s nuts to wager on a staff that the unfold has three scores behind on the opening kickoff. One misstep, a breakdown or a turnover, and also you want 4 touchdowns to cowl. However then, isn’t it extra loopy to assume that the Texans can maintain near unbeaten Arizona? Houston misplaced 31-3 in Indianapolis final week and the Colts will not be almost pretty much as good because the Playing cards. Can’t think about the house staff struggling any type of a letdown with DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt being a few their leaders. These two weren’t on pleasant phrases with administration once they left Houston final season. How keen will they be to throw jiggers of salt into their former staff’s many open wounds? Not that Arizona wants the additional fireplace. Regardless of being the one staff with a “0” within the loss column, the Playing cards are the Rodney Dangerfields of the NFL … They may get their new weapon, Zach Ertz, concerned as a lot as attainable in his debut. The Texans have allowed extra fantasy factors (12.82) to tight ends than any staff within the league … The Texans are nonetheless with out injured OT Laremy Tunsil, which is dangerous information for QB Davis Mills and means Watt must be in place to shine … The Playing cards, Pats and Rams are pretty much as good because it will get for Survivor Pool pickers.

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TAKING: ARIZONA -17 1/2

SCORE: Cardinals 40, Texans 6

THE REST ….

WFT 2-4 AT PACKERS 5-1

LINE: Inexperienced Bay by 7 1/2

CHEWABLE: So let’s get this straight: Alongside together with his common job, Aaron Rodgers is a wannabe GM and now an proprietor? No marvel he doesn’t have time for a hair reduce … In search of its first win in opposition to a high quality opponent, the Soccer Group received’t discover it at Lambeau Subject, the place the house facet has completed on prime in its previous seven … Smug Aaron has the offence ranked a strong twenty third in common yards per recreation and fifteenth in common factors per recreation, however the defence is working at top-five effectivity and (maybe on orders from the QB) centered on getting stronger with current signings … The Soccer Group has lined simply one in every of its six video games and Taylor Heinicke can’t sustain in a shootout with Rodgers, who’s 113-75 ATS since 2009. However Chase Younger has recorded a sack in every of the previous two and there’s simply an excessive amount of expertise on the Washington ‘D’ for it to not make extra noise.

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TAKING: WASHINGTON +7 1/2

SCORE: Packers 24, WFT 20

CHIEFS 3-3 AT TITANS 4-2

LINE: Kansas Metropolis by 5

CHEWABLE: If there was an MVP award handed out on the six-game mark, it must go to Derrick Henry. No offensive participant is operating away with a statistical class the best way he’s as soon as once more dominating the speeding race. Henry has averaged 145 yards alongside the bottom (whereas scoring 10 TDs) over the previous 5 video games. He has additionally rumbled for 260 yards greater than the runner-up and, with 783 yards, is on tempo for a document 2,218-yard season. The Chiefs’ run defence ranks twenty seventh (prediction throughout the prediction: Henry is about to have his first 200-yard speeding day of the season) whereas Okay.C. can be permitting extra yards per play (6.7) and averaging fewer sacks (1.2) than some other staff … All people talks about Patrick Mahomes’ eight interceptions, however two have bounced off Tyreek Hill’s arms and one other was within the grasp of seldom-used WR Marcus Kemp. A lot much less is alleged about Mahomes’ league-leading 18 TD passes, which places him on tempo to complete with greater than 50. I just like the determined, last-place Chiefs to select up a highway win over the first-place Titans, who nonetheless should be somewhat tuckered after the emotion draining Monday evening shootout. However the line is just too excessive.

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TAKING: TENNESSEE +5

SCORE: Chiefs 30, Titans 28

FALCONS 2-3 AT DOLPHINS 1-5

LINE: Atlanta by 2 1/2

CHEWABLE: Not even their very own moms can just like the Dolphins lately. They’ve dropped 5 in a row, together with what was the Jaguars’ first victory in 21 video games. The defence that was imagined to make them a contender within the AFC East is ranked thirtieth in yards allowed per recreation and tied for thirtieth in factors allowed per recreation. Their coach hasn’t waived the white flag, however he has been throwing the purple one at odd instances. And, to prime it off, they look like closing in on a commerce for Deshaun Watson that will be met with disapproval from all Miami moms … Atlanta had a bye week after beating the Jets in London however earlier than the break, Matt Ryan was discovering his groove, having thrown eight TD passes in opposition to no picks within the final three video games.

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TAKING: ATLANTA -2 1/2

SCORE: Falcons 34, Dolphins 27

PANTHERS 3-3 AT GIANTS 1-5

LINE: Carolina by 3

CHEWABLE: Hardly ever has Daniel Jones gone toe-to-toe with a QB who turns the ball over greater than he does, however that’s the case this week. By means of a half dozen video games, Sam Darnold has a 9-6 edge within the class … Darnold was not the lone perpetrator on this previous Sunday’s 34-28 loss to Vikings that prolonged the Carolina slide to a few video games. D.J. Moore dropped three passes, whereas Robby Anderson dropped 4 and Chuba Hubbard two … The Panthers actually miss Christian McCaffrey on such a day. Hubbard solely had 65 yards (together with 61 speeding) from scrimmage. McCaffrey does that in his sleep … The Giants have been holding out hope for RB Saquon Barkley (ankle), WR Kenny Golladay (knee) and WR Kadarius Toney (knee), however as of Thursday none of them had practiced. With out these weapons, Panthers ‘D’ ought to dominate.

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TAKING: CAROLINA -3

SCORE: Panthers 20, Giants 14

EAGLES 2-4 AT RAIDERS 4-2

LINE: Las Vegas by 3

CHEWABLE: In a ballot to find out the NFL’s most obnoxious followers, the Eagles and Raiders would end 1-2 and supporters would beat the hell out of one another for prime spot recognition. That is the Eagles’ first highway recreation in opposition to the Raiders since they moved from Oakland. There must be an over/beneath set on what number of of their travelling devoted spend time in a Sin Metropolis jail. Win or lose, it received’t make a distinction, however the intestine feeling right here is they are going to be blissful lawbreakers. The Raiders received final week in Denver whereas rallying across the turmoil created by the Jon Gruden Affair. They’re residence to a greater staff right here. The Eagles are 2-1 on the highway and final week got here up simply six factors brief in a comeback try in opposition to Tampa. Jalen Hurts is twenty fifth on the league’s speeding record with 300 yards and he has additionally thrown for greater than 300 yards twice. His scrambling goes to present the Raiders complications. Solely Tom Brady has tossed for extra yards than Derek Carr, who will probably be going through the league’s fifth-best cross defence on Sunday. Each groups are weak in opposition to the run, however that’s one thing the guests are higher geared up to take advantage of. The Eagles are 37-25 ATS as highway ‘canines since 2005. Over the identical span, the Raiders are 13-31 are residence favourites.

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TAKING: PHILADELPHIA +3

SCORE: Eagles 24, Raiders 20

LIONS 0-6 AT RAMS 5-1

LINE: Los Angeles by 15

CHEWABLE: As survivor picks go, you’re protected with the Rams. Mismatches don’t get a lot greater between groups in the identical league. The primary recreation for each Matt Stafford and Jared Goff in opposition to their former groups will virtually definitely carry out the most effective in each. Goff has a lot much less to work with. Do you know that within the final 35 years, Cooper Kupp and Randy Moss are the one gamers to have 600 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns via the primary two weeks? In the meantime, does anybody know Goff’s weak point higher than Rams coach Sean McVay? On the identical time, Dan Campbell owes it to his QB to return up some contemporary, modern performs after throwing him beneath the bus following final week’s 34-11 loss to the Bengals. The embarrassment Lions suffered dropping to the Bengals may work to the benefit of these betting on them in Week 7. They’re 22-8 ATS as a highway canine after a house defeat of 10 or extra factors, 17-8 ATS after dropping by 20 or extra since 2007.

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TAKING: DETROIT +15

SCORE: Rams 37, Lions 23

BEARS 3-3 AT BUCCANEERS 5-1

LINE: Tampa Bay by 12 1/2

CHEWABLE: Fake you’re one of many Bears. You’re coming off one other loss to your fiercest rival, throughout which its quarterback declared loud and clear, in your home, that he “owns” you. “He’s proper,” everybody says. They’re proper. Brady jokes about it on a podcast, one other clip that everybody sees and laughs at. You thought you have been a staff on the rise, but you have a look at the unfold and it’s an insult too. You’re in all probability seething whenever you take the sector in opposition to Brady on Sunday. You may persuade your self that the primary 44-year-old in historical past to achieve the two,064 yards in passing by Week 6 continues to be carrying a mocking smile via his facemask. The Bucs need to enhance to 6-1 for the primary time in franchise historical past, however they could be peeking previous you, a non-divisional staff, to their assembly with the second-place Saints. What you must know is that your staff really has owned theirs through the years, with a 40-20 all-time document that features a 20-19 victory at Soldier Subject in Week 5 final 12 months, Brady’s first in Tampa. Your operating recreation stays depleted by harm and sickness, leaving rookie sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert to shoulder the load. Herbert was good final week in his first begin, however the Bucs have the most effective run defence within the league by far, permitting a median of 54.8 yards per recreation. Justin Fields should give you his finest passing efficiency — after throwing for 68, 209, 111 and 174 yards in his first 4 begins — however you’ve seen some good indicators from him and Tampa’s cross defence is twenty seventh. Are you able to beat Tampa? It could be a large upset. Both method, the unfold is just too excessive.

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TAKING: CHICAGO +12 1/2

SCORE: Buccaneers 30, Bears 21

COLTS 2-4 AT NINERS 2-3

LINE: San Francisco by 4

CHEWABLE: The perfect coaches have their groups prepared coming off a bye and Kyle Shanahan is an efficient coach. His injury-riddled roster misplaced three straight earlier than the break to Packers, Seahawks and Cardinals, all by a landing or much less. Within the Colts, San Fran is returning to a squad that’s getting its act collectively. It’s not simply the 31-3 beating of Houston final week. It’s Jonathan Taylor and the operating recreation, the return of T.Y. Hilton and sure, Carson Wentz. The veteran quarterback has thrown 9 TD passes, together with six prior to now three weeks and has only one decide on the season. Anticipated to be again beneath centre for San Fran is Jimmy Garoppolo, however he’ll be lacking his favorite receiver, as George Kittle is on IR with a calf harm. Shanahan simply is perhaps able to let WR Brandon Aiyuk out of the doghouse … Indy suffered a troublesome break dropping security Julian Blackmon to a season-ending torn Achilles at observe Wednesday, however the defence is fired up by DT DeForest Buckner, who’s anxious to point out his former staff the error of its method in letting him go.

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TAKING: INDIANAPOLIS +4

SCORE: Colts 27, Niners 24

SAINTS 3-2 AT SEAHAWKS 2-4

Line: New Orleans by 4 1/2

CHEWABLE: It’s getting near must-win time for the Seahawks, who need to nonetheless be within the wild-card race when Russell Wilson surprises everybody by getting back from a mangled finger two weeks sooner than essentially the most beneficiant forecast. Eye-catching stat: Seattle is 15-6 ATS as a house ’canine since 2009 … It took Geno Smith a half to get going, however he did direct the Seahawks to twenty second-half factors in Pittsburgh. If he picks up the place he left off, Seattle holds the benefit within the passing recreation with D.Okay. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett … The Seahawks had the worst run defence within the league till they did an honest job on rookie Najee Harris (3.4 yards per carry) in final week’s time beyond regulation loss in Pittsburgh. Harris nonetheless managed 81 yards speeding, nonetheless, and now Seattle has Alvin Kamara coming to city. He had 122 yards from scrimmage, together with 71 speeding, and two TDs because the Saints beat WFT 33-22 earlier than the bye.

TAKING: SEAHAWKS +4 1/2

SCORE: Seahawks 24, Saints 21