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Can Minsk Agreement Help De-escalate Russia-Ukraine Tensions?

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is the latest Western leader to visit Moscow to find out if two ceasefire agreements brokered seven years ago between Kyiv and Moscow can defuse military tensions and end the war. war in eastern Ukraine or not.

Parted by France and Germany in 2014 and 2015 after Russian-backed separatists attacked and occupied territory in Ukraine’s Donbas region, Minsk I and II are being hailed as a way to avoid a conflict. new breakthrough in Europe.

Speaking to the media after his meeting with Scholz on Tuesday, Vladimir Putin said agreements should be the “baseline” to find a solution to current tensions.

The Russian president recalled his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, who last week in Moscow said that agreements were the “only way” to build peace, and US secretary of state Antony Blinken, who said the US and Ukraine had “united” end” in favor of agreements. as the best way forward.

But negotiations under the so-called Normandy format – Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany – have stalled. The agreement written in terms of what Kyiv now considers coercion, and the Ukrainian interpretation differs from that of Moscow, analysts To speak. For Kyiv, they mean restoring territorial integrity; For Moscow, they mean the possibility of exercising a veto over Ukraine’s future.

“The Minsk process is not a red herring like a dead duck,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior expert on Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

What are the Minsk contracts?

Kyiv said it signed the Minsk agreements after Russian forces intervened in the Donbas war to support Ukrainian separatists, causing heavy military damage to Ukrainian troops in Ilovaisk in 2014 and Debaltseve in 2014. 2015. Moscow denies any involvement.

Signed in September 2014 – six months after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula – Minsk I is an unprecedented 12-point truce: Kyiv estimates 14,000 people have been killed since fighting broke out. .

Vladimir Putin, Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande attend a meeting on resolving the Ukraine crisis, with Alexander Lukashenko seen nearby, in Minsk... Russian President Vladimir Putin (second L), President Ukraine Petro Poroshenko (R), German Chancellor Angela Merkel (4th) and French President Francois Hollande (3rd) attend a meeting on resolving the Ukraine crisis, with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (L) seen nearby, in Minsk, February 11, 2015. The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine began peace talks in Belarus on Wednesday, while in Ukraine, separatists pro-Moscow has tightened pressure on Kiev by launching some of the worst skirmishes of the war.  REUTERS / Mykola Lazarenko / Press Service of the President of Ukraine / Document broadcast via Reuters

Vladimir Putin, Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel and François Hollande attend a meeting on resolving the Ukraine crisis, with Alexander Lukashenko, left, in Minsk in February 2015 © Reuters

Troubled in February 2015, Minsk II came up with a formula designed to reintegrate Russian-backed breakaway regions into Ukraine by giving Moscow some say in Ukrainian politics. Critics note that then-president Petro Poroshenko signed it because Kyiv’s forces were facing defeat.

It was signed by representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of two pro-Russian separatist regions. It has also been endorsed by the United Nations Security Council. But it was never fully implemented by both sides. Minsk II is where diplomatic efforts are now in focus.

What are the central provisions of Minsk II?

The main provisions of Minsk II included an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons; OSCE supervision; and the full resumption of economic and social links between the two sides, such as pensions.

To the extent that the OSCE is still monitoring the area and the casualty rate has slowed, these parts of the agreement have been partially met.

More controversial, and interpreted differently by both sides, are the provisions demanding the restoration of Ukrainian government control of the border with Russia; withdraw all foreign armed formations, military equipment and mercenaries; and Ukrainian reforms will bring a degree of autonomy to the eastern Donbas region.

What are the main sticking points?

One is sequencing. Ukraine wants to control its international borders before Local elections were held in Russia-supported breakaway regions. It also wants Russian forces – which Russia denies are present – to leave.

On the contrary, Moscow wants elections before Ukraine regained control of the border. Analysts say this will prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO, because Russian-backed MPs-elect from Donbas will be able to block such membership plans in the Ukrainian parliament.

“You may like it, you may not like it – but deal with it, my beauty,” Putin said at a press conference with Macron last week, in a candid comment to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky. .

Kyiv takes a different look at what Donbas’ autonomous status means. Ukraine’s foreign minister last week speak: “Between our red lines: zero tolerance for sovereignty, territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders; there is no ‘direct dialogue’ with the occupying government of Russia. . . and only the Ukrainian people have the right to determine the course of foreign policy”.

“Fundamentally, Russia wants to control the circumstances in which the election takes place,” Gould-Davies said. “I don’t see any democratically elected leader of Ukraine able to do the Russian version.”

Another issue is Moscow’s decision to issue more than 600,000 Russian passports to the Donbas separatists – even though Ukraine’s constitution does not allow dual citizenship. Furthermore, on Tuesday, Russia’s parliament passed a resolution calling on Putin to recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk states to be located in the Donbas – a recognition that Western officials said would means the death of Minsk. When asked about this solution, Putin said that Russia would first look to “unrealized possibilities in the implementation of the Minsk agreements”.

Is there a way forward?

Judging by Putin’s recent statements, no. “People can see that the current government in Kyiv is moving to sabotage the Minsk agreements,” he said last week. “There has been no movement on key issues such as constitutional reform, amnesty, local elections and the legal aspects of the Donbas special status.”

Ukraine fears that the West will be forced to reach an agreement with Kyiv but has hinted at a compromise. On Monday in Kyiv, Scholz said Zelensky had assured him that he would draft draft laws on the special status of Donbas, constitutional amendments and electoral laws for the Minsk talks.

“Ukraine is making a huge contribution here,” said Scholz.

Even so, simply responding to the Minsk agreement was seen by many Ukrainians as a concession to Russia’s military aggression. Western diplomats say the prospect of Kyiv negotiating directly with the separatists, which Zelensky has ruled out, would also mark his political death.

That could cause a rift that would then give Putin an excuse to intervene militarily. The last time Ukraine introduced constitutional changes that appeared to serve Moscow’s line in 2015, riots in the capital left three security officials dead.

On the contrary, according to the Ukrainian interpretation, Donbas will not influence Kyiv through parliament, the alleged scheme to use Russia’s Donbas to gain political control and foreign policy of Ukraine will fail. .

“It would be a defeat for Russia. . . and its security requirements go far beyond Minsk,” says Gould-Davies.

Additional reporting by Victor Mallet in Paris, Guy Chazan in Berlin

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