Johannesburg, South Africa – In December, South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) will hold its election conference, and key provinces have indicated that they will support President Cyril Ramaphosa’s bid to be re-elected as leader. party religion.
But a personal scandal could leave him facing an impeachment vote before the convention takes place.
On June 1, 2022, former national spy agency boss Arthur Fraser filed a criminal complaint against Ramaphosa, accusing him of money laundering and bribery to cover up. a February 2020 burglary at his game farmin which it was alleged that $4 million in illegal cash was stolen.
Ramaphosa then issued a statement confirm a robbery took place at his Phala Phala farm but denies any wrongdoing.
The opposition wants Ramaphosa to answer questions about the scandal. But the president must also answer a number of investigative agencies including the elite anti-crime agency, the Hawks, as well as the office of the Public Protection Agency and the Reserve Bank of South Africa.
In August, Ramaphosa declined to answer questions in parliament regarding the theft and again reiterated that he wanted “law enforcement agencies that are investigating the incident to have space to do their work.” their”.
On September 9, several opposition parties marched to the office of the Right of Public Protection Kholeka Gcaleka to demand the release of a report on the alleged robbery.
But while law enforcement agencies are busy investigating various aspects of the theft, Parliament Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula has appointed a independent control panel including the country’s top judge, former Chief Justice Sandile Ngcobo, to conduct a preliminary review of whether Ramaphosa should face an impeachment inquiry into alleged misconduct related to the theft. or not.
The three-person panel has yet to begin the review, but will have 30 days from when it begins to report back to the speaker. If the panel recommends impeachment, a congressional special committee will decide whether to call an impeachment vote in parliament. If at least two-thirds of lawmakers support the proposal, the president will be removed from office immediately.
Although the ANC still holds a majority in parliament – 230 out of 400 – Ramaphosa has enemies within the party, the scandal has sparked a wave of public outcry and impeachment is likely to be completed before that. election conference of the ANC.
‘Ramaphosa must go’
In South Africa’s political system, there are no direct presidential elections. The leader of the party with the majority in parliament becomes the president.
Since the fall of apartheid in 1994, Nelson Mandela and Kgalema Motlanthe are the only presidents who have not been stripped of power.
Former presidents Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma were both forced to resign over allegations of misconduct.
Ramaphosa took office in 2018 after defeating a Zuma-backed candidate in the ANC general election and pledging to root out state corruption.
He has faced a difficult few years, tasked with steering the country through Pandemic caused by covid-19 as well as facing high unemployment, violence and crime, massive unrest, crippling power outages and internal ANC disputes.
But the Phala Phala farm scandal is now the biggest threat to his presidency.
The public was outraged by the scandal, with #RamaphosaMustGo and #PhalaPhalaFarm regularly trending on social media and objector called on him to resign.
Opposition political parties have called for his resignation, with the biggest demand coming from Julius Malema, the former leader of the ANC youth union who now leads the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters.
“Ramaphosa must know that his days are numbered in the office of the president,” Malema told thousands of EFF members at the party’s ninth anniversary on July 30.
Malema and his EFF were instrumental in removing former President Zuma by interrupting his speeches in parliament and perpetuating calls for his resignation.
Ramaphosa has also faced dissent from within the ANC over the Phala Phala farm scandal, with ANC supporters joining the protests and senior party figures indirectly pointing quote or urge him to give up.
In July, senior ANC politician Mavuso Msimang said on a radio program that Ramaphosa “should temporarily resign as head of state until his name is erased”.
At a gathering in the Eastern Cape on September 18, Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu criticized politicians for “hoarding money under mattresses while the whole country starves”.
Meanwhile, at a memorial service for ANC head Jessie Duarte held in July, Mbeki told mourners that the country could face an “Arab Spring” uprising. Arab” if the ANC doesn’t get its home and develop concrete plans to deal with the country’s many problems – especially youth unemployment 66.5 percent.
“You can’t have too many unemployed people, too many people living in poverty, defying the law and facing corrupt leadership and can’t expect the situation to not explode one day,” Mbeki said. there”.
Ramaphosa did not immediately respond to Mbeki’s criticism, but speaking to ANC members at the KwaZulu-Natal conference in July, he said that the challenges facing South Africa were far from over.
“[Unemployment] didn’t start two years ago,” he said. “We have lived with this problem for many years, and we have joined with our social partners to find or create the steps we need to take to address all of these challenges.”
Allies of Ramaphosa say that Africa’s oldest anti-corruption movement is unpopular in the party, and this is causing infighting and calls for Ramaphosa’s removal.
‘No one else to manage’
Oscar van Heerden, an author and political commentator who served as a member of the ANC in the 1980s, said Ramaphosa’s opponents might make life difficult for him but unlikely to win the vote. impeachment. as he is still supported by rankings and records in the ANC, which is also worried about the 2024 election results and considers Ramaphosa a safer bet.
Zuma and Mbeki were removed from their posts only after they were deposed as ANC leaders.
“If Ramaphosa wins the race for the presidency of the ANC, which I think he will, the ANC will be more prepared to win the 2024 election,” van Heerden said.
Benedict Xolani Dube, head of the Xubera Research and Development Institute, told Al Jazeera that – although he thinks the country needs new leadership – Ramaphosa will survive as president because divisions within the ANC have could threaten its electoral chances and because ANC politicians opposed Ramaphosa still demanded his support in order to be nominated in the next election.
“This is a predicament for the ANC and the country: without him, there is no one else to run,” Dube said.
“[But] we no longer see the ANC as a messiah who will change everything. We need the leadership of the country.”
Political analyst Levy Ndou told Al Jazeera that if the National Prosecution Service brought charges against Ramaphosa, it could change the situation.
“Without proof,” he said, “there is nothing to stand for and the ANC will continue to support Ramaphosa as there is currently no one else to replace him.”
