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Climate change: How the crisis affects tornadoes


And after this night of deadly extreme weather, what meteorologists and climatologists say is history, questions about whether climate change is increasing tornadoes are beginning to arise. head appears.

In Kentucky, a series of tornadoes uprooted trees, destroyed homes and infrastructure, and kill at least 70 people. Governor Andy Beshear said at a news conference that the tornado had reached “a level of devastation unlike anything I’ve ever seen,” he said.

But unlike other extreme weather phenomena such as droughts, floods and hurricanes, scientific research on the link between the climate crisis and tornadoes is not robust, making the link particularly difficult. .

The short-lived scale of tornadoes, coupled with extremely inconsistent and unreliable historical records, makes it difficult to link outbreaks to climate change, scientists say caused by humans in the long run becomes extremely difficult.

Victor Gensini, a professor at Northern Illinois University and one of the leading experts on tornadoes, said last night’s outbreak was one of the most remarkable tornado events in US history – and in when climate change might be part of its violent behavior, it’s not. but it’s clear what that role is.

“When you start putting a lot of these facts together, and you start looking at them in aggregate terms, the statistics are pretty clear that there’s not just change – a change, if you want – where to go Gensini told CNN, “But these events are probably becoming stronger, more frequent and also more variable.”

Gensini’s research shows that over the past four decades, the frequency of tornadoes has decreased increased in large areas of the Midwest and Southeast, while decreasing in parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the area has traditionally been referred to as “tornado alley”. Some studies have also shown that climate change could contribute to an eastward shift of tornado canyons, leading to more tornadoes occurring in more densely populated states east of the Mississippi River, such as like this tornado outbreak.

“It’s also common when you have La Niña in place to see the eastward shift with the highest tornado frequency,” Gensini said. “But if you look at the last 40 years, the research I’ve done … has shown that places like Nashville, Tennessee for example – or Mayfield, Kentucky, which we saw were attacked last night – frequency their tornadoes, their risk of experiencing a tornado has increased over the past 40 years.”

Tornadoes form under particularly specific atmospheric conditions, but are primarily driven by warm, moist air from high-altitude divergent winds. Scientists have warned that an increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere is drastically altering the climate system, even causing jet streams – fast-flowing air flows in the upper atmosphere that affect to daily weather that can cause tornadoes. – Behaving oddly.

Tornado tore through candle factory in Kentucky, causing many people to search for loved ones

Jennifer Marlon, a climate scientist at the Yale School of the Environment, told CNN that it’s too early to say what happened last night, but there are “some really important signs that this is very likely.” may be related to climate change”, and the scientists are “observing changes in outbreaks, not only the severity of individual outbreaks and cyclones, but also quiet time.”

For example, if any tornadoes last night were rated EF-5 (estimated winds of 260 mph or higher), it would end a streak of 3,126 days since the last EF-5, which is longest run without a record since records began in 1950. The last EF-5 tornado was tornadoes Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013.

And as climate disasters worsen and broaden in scope, Marlon also points to key factors that increase disaster risk across society during this time, including worsening weather disasters. currency, increasing exposure due to a growing population and more vulnerable infrastructure assets.

That took shape in Mayfield, Kentucky, where officials said the city’s main fire station and some police properties were rendered inoperable due to the tornado system that wreaked havoc last night. Now, authorities are looking for alternative ways to deal with emergency calls.

“All of this is increasing disaster risk, with far more consequences, including deaths, but also enormous economic losses,” she said.

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As the climate crisis intensifies, more people will be vulnerable to the most severe consequences of extreme weather events. Experts say cities should not delay adaptation plans any longer, and instead treat them as a larger emergency response system.

But Gensini says one thing is for sure: regardless of climate change, these types of tornado disasters will continue to get worse as people change the landscape and build larger, colorful cities than.

“We have more assets and more targets for severe storms,” he said. “So even if you remove climate change, which could very well make matters worse, we still have a problem of human and social vulnerability.”

CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller contributed to this report.

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