College Bowl Picks 2021: Expert tips, tips, surname strategy, confidence profile

Based on over eight years of proven results in thousands of real-world football pools, we’ll put together a framework that gives you the best chance of winning the 2021 college selection contest. or confidence score group.

This analysis is brought to you by TeamRankings.com, the only site that uses advanced analytics and game theory to optimize picks for football office teams. To see their recommended picks for every game, customized for your pool size and scoring system, see College swimming pool selection in 2021.

MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Three value picks for select groups (coming soon)

College Bowl Picks: How to Win the College Ball Competition

Determine the bowl’s favorite dishes – Objective

Picking the team you think is likely to win every game is often not the best strategy for winning your team. You also need to factor in popularity, especially in larger groups. Of course, you also shouldn’t blindly try to judge who is the best team. You should rethink trusting yourself in that department.

• Betting market information is the most objective metric: If you want the best starting point, check out the spreads for games.
• Biased pickers: Things like winning records and recent performances or overestimating the importance of a memorable match are all common pitfalls.

Regional bias emerges: In college football, there aren’t many regular games between the top teams in different games, so some groups exhibit strong regional preferences.

Take last year’s Gator Bowl between 4-6 Kentucky and 8-3 NC State, for example.

• NC State ranked in the AP poll when it came to the game while Kentucky did not.
• However, Kentucky is a lover of betting.
• Our models gave Wildcats 54% chance of winning.
• Due to COVID-19 restrictions, many teams, including the SEC, have held a conference-only schedule.
• Due to a strange year, Kentucky faces a tough group that makes their record appear worse than a typical team.

Kentucky won a close game, 23-21, and a small percentage of the public won that game. However, it is not an annoyance in the betting markets.

THAN: Bowl Pick ’em Picks from TeamRankings.com

College Bowl Selection: How to Identify Underrated or Failing Teams

Use the popularity of Pick a Bowl to identify underrated teams

To win a college auto pick, you’ll need to get at least one right where your opponent is wrong. That’s the only way to end up with the most points. That seems pretty obvious, but it’s often overlooked in terms of pick strategies.

Picking an arbitrary number of bowls will not win you.

• There is no magic number to win in a pool.
• If you make the right choice and your entire team makes the same choice, you gain nothing.
• If you make a risky pick and do it right, you will get a solid place in the rankings.
• If you choose wrong and your opponent chooses right, you will lose your position.

Under are often (but not always) unpopular choices, so you need to evaluate both the risks and possible rewards of every pick. One useful approach is to identify groups that fall into one of two categories:

1. Favorites are picked with significantly lower odds than their odds to win

We often refer to these teams as “value-loving teams.” They are as close as you can get to undisputed picks in a billiards competition, as the team that is more likely to win is also the team that is underrated. West Virginia playing the Army in the 2019 Liberty Bowl is a recent example.

• West Virginia is preferred rather than an encounter.
• West Virginia’s objective win rate is about 80 percent.
• However, only about 68% of the public chose the Climbers to win outright in swimming pools.

It’s not a huge difference, but it’s a great reason to stick with a team like West Virginia, which is relatively underrated. If you go with the odds, you’ll win over 32 percent of your total bet, a whopping four out of five times you’ve played out your total stake.

2. Moderately inferior people are significantly underrated by the general public

In most cases, the public will choose the favorite videos more. The key to differentiating your entry might be finding slightly underdogs that have a solid chance of winning (40% or higher) but are extremely unpopular compared to other similar underdogs . If you were going to pick a nasty game where the bottom team has a 45% chance of winning, would you like to:

• Do it when only 10 percent of your opponents choose the same outcome; or
• Do it when 40% of your opponents have the same result.

You should prefer the former.

To win in a pool, you have to play some of the main games correctly. Sometimes that means making sensible shuffles as a handful of others do to increase your odds of winning the contest.

College Bowl Pool Picks: How to find the best strategy for adventurous teams

Apply the right level of risk

Now comes the hardest and most complicated part of gaining an advantage over your opponents in your playgroup. If you are in a typical bowling pool, you need to find the exact combination of the 40+ choices you should make. You may also need to add a confidence score rating for each pick.

Here are some factors that will influence your risk strategy:

• Pool size: The more entries you have to beat, the more risks you need to take.
• Format/Type: Pick a winner (where there’s some mismatch) versus pick by spread (where every game is closer to an even number).
• Scoring structure: A confidence score (where some games are much more important) or a fixed, constant point where all games count equally.
• Prize structure: How many places are paid, and how much is the reduction?

The methods we use to optimization of options for bowl tanks This is beyond the scope of this post, but here are some quick tips:

Choose a Strategy for a Smaller Bowl Pool

• The pick strategy should focus on the favorites in the winning pool of the game.
• Be selective in taking risks.
• Let others shoot themselves in the foot with extremely nasty picks that are personally unlikely.
• You can often gain a solid advantage simply by remaining vigilant.

Sure, some shuffle will happen that you’ll miss, but with around 40 games to choose from, the cumulative risk/reward strategy of remaining extra cautious often pays off. It might still be a good idea to consider underrated teams if they’re just the weakest, or it’s possible to make a calculated bet on an extremely underrated team. Just don’t go overboard.

Choose a Strategy for the Bigger Bowl Pool

• Your chances of winning in a large pool (say 100+ entries) are pretty small.
• Unlike small groups, playing it safe rarely improves those odds.
• With a big contest, at least one entry is likely to fall into more unpleasant choices, increasing the need to risk yourself.
• Usually you need to take a lot of games on value options, even some risky picks, and hope to hit them.

Another way to increase your chances of cashing out in a big pool is to play multiple entries. You can diversify your risk by doing a different set of calculated games in each entry. Ours Bowl Pick ’em Picks products offer suggestions to play up to three different items in the same group.

College bowl selection: Specify confidence scores, select based on disparity

THAN: Bowl Pick ’em Picks from TeamRankings.com

Choosing a Strategy for Bowl Confident Pool

In the group stage confidence profile, it is important to understand the relative impact of every match.

• For example, you may need to specify a unique confidence value between one and 43 points for each selection.
• That means that your correct choice of 36 points is as valuable as your correct selection of all eight of the choices one-, two-, three-, four-, five-, six, seven- and eight your points.
• Therefore, it is not worth worrying too much about your less reliable options.
• Your more reliable pick strategy can determine whether it’s going to be an award-winning year for you.
• For example, instead of making a bunch of nasty selections with low confidence, think about concentrating your risk on a smaller number of larger bets.

Choose a strategy for the bowl tank based on the spread point

Many players don’t understand the role of great balance in teams.

• If your pool has an update point spread per game, you won’t have a better than 50-50 chance of getting most of the picks right.
• The top professional college football bettors hover only between 55-60 percent long-term accuracy over the full-time spread – and that’s the odds of giving up on most games.
• The popularity of the pick becomes a greater driver of optimal strategy in these groups.
• In cases where the public favors one party heavily, you should usually choose the other way around.
• Also, keep an eye out for old contest spreads and line values ​​based on movement and news for some advantage.

Get expert picks from Bowl Pool experts

We hope this article has been helpful in explaining some of the key strategies you can use to win college football pitching competitions. Is applying this level of analysis to choosing your 2021 bowl complicated and time consuming? Sure. However, if you’re really serious about winning, the expected long-term rewards can easily justify the effort.

However, if you want to outsource all the numbers being assigned to office pool specialists, we are here to help. We produce or collect all the data mentioned in this post (updated odds, algorithmic game predictions, public pick trends, etc.) out game-specific custom pick recommendations for all of your college pick’em pools

You only need to answer a few questions about your team and within seconds you will have choices that maximize your chances of winning. Find out more here:

THAN: Bowl Pick ’em Picks from TeamRankings.com

TeamRankings also provides data-driven college bowl betting options.