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Electric cars begin to gain more coverage than combustion cars



While gas prices have dropped from their highs earlier this summer, drivers are still having a hard time getting gas pumping. Unless of course you are a tram owners, and therefore feel very smug when flipping through refueling stations to charge at home.

More EV use is expected in a time of high gas prices, but one of the open questions in the industry is whether EV drivers will often get more miles on average than gas. diesel car owners.

In many countries, it is difficult to read clearly, mainly because electric vehicles still make up a very small percentage of the total number of cars on the road. But to see where things can go, we can turn to Norway. The latest data released from the nation’s statistics agency shows that battery-powered vehicles now drive more miles per year on average than cars that run entirely on petrol or diesel. diesel oil. The average travel distance of the following two segments has decreased steadily over the past 15 years.

This is remarkable. It highlights the growing capabilities of the latest electric vehicle models, and also has implications for oil demand from trucking. The amount of oil to replace an electric vehicle depends on how fast we switch to kilometers or miles to electric, not the number of cars.

To better understand this, consider a family of two cars, where one is electric and the other is an internal combustion engine. EVs have much lower operating costs, so families will likely start switching more miles to EVs once they’re comfortable with the vehicle. For example, the commute to work involves a predictable route and often accounts for the largest share of a person’s driving. So while the family still has an internal combustion car and uses it occasionally for longer trips, the household’s electricity-to-mileage ratio grows faster than one might expect. , especially if one considers only the number of cars.

This effect is not surprising; people prefer to use more cheaper things. But it doesn’t always get the wisdom of the market. A few years ago, some oil power prospects not only assumed that EV adoption would be muted, but that each EV would move less than an equivalent internal combustion vehicle on average. This now looks like a very shaky assumption. Not only will higher range make people use their electric vehicles more, but even lower range trams can use some of the miles used to travel along high-traffic routes. can be predicted.

A few other things stand out in the data. One is that you can actually see the point when Tesla Model WILL, the first true long-range EV to hit the market. Average distance traveled per EV increased sharply in 2013 and 2014 – shortly after Model WILL launched – then rose a few more years and is now at an all-time high.

This once again points to the potential for electric vehicles to improve, and also the potential for their effects to extend beyond being an urban phenomenon and spread more widely across the country. With more long-range EVs hitting the market, it seems reasonable to expect the 2022 data to show a continuation of the trend.

Another interesting point is hybrid car also give relatively high numbers. Data for crossbred only available from 2016 onwards, but they are currently available in pure EV and diesel carand it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few years.

The full transition to electric mobility will take a long time. Last year, electric vehicles still accounted for only 17% of the total travel miles of the passenger car fleet in Norway and only about 1.5% of the total number of kilometers traveled by the global passenger car fleet. Until more fleets of vehicles go all-electric, the total distance covered by electric vehicles will still have some work to do.

However, at BNEF, we expect this same effect to start showing up in the data for more countries in the coming years. Average annual EV mileage in Chinafor example, increased rapidly from 2017 to 2020 before slowing down a bit due to the pandemic, when ride-hailing usage dropped.

Counting auto sales and fleet size is still important, but for the impact of the energy market, it’s best to also track the distance traveled.

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