US April WTI Crude Oil (CL1: COM) closed 1.7% higher on Friday but down 4.2% for the week at $104.70/bbl; The contract for delivery last month is now down 9.5%, or $11, in the past two weeks on fears of a global shortage caused by sanctions on Russian oil and the war in Ukraine. has yet to materialize in the physical market.
US natural gas (NG1: COM) rose 2.9% for the week to $4,863/MMBtu following a larger-than-usual weekly storage drop and short-term weather forecasts showing cool temperatures and relatively good heating demand.
Essentially, the oil market is still tight but “until we get some sort of resolution on what Russia’s end goal is, you’re going to have a lot of sentiment and a lot of volatility in oil prices.” Tortoise portfolio manager Rob Thummel told Bloomberg, adding that current oil prices including at least $20/bbl geopolitical premium.
The International Energy Agency, which last year called for an end to new oil, gas and coal projects as a way to help the environment, this week warned of an “emergency” to security. energy, days after stating in its monthly report that the potential loss to Russia’s oil exports “could not be underestimated.”
IEA 10 point plan announced focus on cutting consumption, including reducing speed limits on highways, rallying cars, working from home, eliminating business travel by plane, taking trains instead of planes, and applies “Sunday without a car”.
Energy closed at the bottom of the industry charts for the week, -3.8%but the group has increased 33% compared to the beginning of the year.