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French election polls: the race for the presidency

France will vote in two rounds in April on whether to hand President Emmanuel Macron to a second five-year term or assign another candidate to the presidency in a flurry of unpredictability. election that could mark a shift to the right in French politics.

First round of voting, including all candidates received enough signatures to run, taking place on April 10.

The two candidates with the most votes will then face off on April 24.

Based on the latest polls, Macron will be among the frontrunners, most likely to face Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right Rassemblement National, in a repeat 2017 election. Macron’s lead over Le Pen in the second round polls is many narrower than five years ago, with a poll this week, put it with within the margin of error.

The prospect of a winner after securing the presidency will depend on another group of votes: the legislative elections in June. Guarantee the majority of the 577 sandals in the National Assembly, the lower house, will be the decisive factor to be able to enact policies. A president whose supporters have no control over congress will face a potentially difficult and ineffective “cohabitation” with hostile lawmakers.

Emmanuel Macron

Emmanuel Macron, the center incumbent, comfortably led the first polls. France is strong after the pandemic economic recovery increased his rating, this further increase after Russia Invades Ukraine. Macron has sought to play a leading role in diplomatic efforts to avert war and still regularly calls Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to try to broker peace. Macron’s campaign focus on his efforts to liberalize the economyincluding plans increase retirement age. Macron must convince voters that he is more than a president of the rich and that he can be trusted with immigration, a key battleground in the debate.

Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

After overcoming challenges from the right opponents, Marine Le PenChances of making it to the second round have improved in recent weeks. Leaders of the far right Rassemblement National Yes reappear is the most likely candidate to face Macron in the opening match in what will be repeated Election 2017. Analysts say her focus on economic issues, such as helping people cope with high energy prices, has helped her win over working-class voters. Le Pen tried “Detox” her side image but her niece, Marion Maréchalannounced his support for rival Eric Zemmour.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a leftist veteran who founded La France Insoumise, or “France Unbowed”, after defecting from the Socialist party, as the leading leftist candidate in French politics. He wants to lower the retirement age to 60, legalize marijuana and welcome migrants. With French broken left unable to unify behind a candidate, his chances of making it to the second round look slim, even though he has slight increase in polls.

Eric Zemmour

Eric Zemmour

Eric Zemmour, an anti-immigration television polemicist recently convicted of hate speechdon’t know where from reached second place in the polls last fall by calling for “no immigration” and criticizing Le Pen as unlikely to win. His new party, Reconquest, offers a harder line alternative for conservatives and far-right voters. But the war in Ukraine was undermine his position by reminding voters of his support for Putin and pushing his main issues – immigration and crime – down the list of priorities.

Valerie Pecresse

Valerie Pecresse,

Valerie Pecresse, the elected leader of the Île-de-France region around Paris, won the nomination for the centre-right Les Républicains. Initial polls suggested she could pose a serious challenge for Macron on a run, but her support waned. Calling himself two-thirds Angela Merkel and one-third Margaret Thatcher, Pécresse has taken a hardline stance on immigration, wanting to cut public spending and against sexual harassment. She must win central voters and conservatives are courting candidates from the far right.

Yannick Jadot

Yannick Jadot

Yannick Jadot, an MEP and leader of the European Green Party Ecologie-Les Verts, calls himself a pragmatic environmentalist. He led the Greens Party to third place in the EU elections in 2019 and like Macron, he refuse to be branded from the left or right.

Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussela journalist, became general secretary of the French Communist Party in 2018. He supports re-industrialization, a shorter work week and retirement at 60, but is also unhappy with some on the left. care about the environment – and attract bons vivants from the socialists – by cheerfully arguing that a higher minimum wage would allow people to enjoy “good wine, good meat and good cheese” to the benefit of the economy. health and improve eating habits.

Anne Hidalgo

Anne Hidalgo

Anne Hidalgo, Socialist Mayor of Paris since 2014, best known for its efforts to eliminate much of the car capital of France, gaining fans international but enemies in Paris and its suburbs. However, her poll numbers are low and have recently fallen, suggesting that her hopes for the presidency are remote.

Christiane Taubira

Christiane Taubira

Christiane Taubiraminister of justice in the Socialist government of François Hollande, entered the race after win the online “people’s main contest” organized by leftist activists. Her opponents ignored that vote and refused to unite behind her back. She has represented the French territory of French Guiana in South America in Congress for nearly two decades and is considered an LGBT icon for her work in legalizing same-sex marriage. She withdrew from the race on March 2nd after failing to secure 500 sponsors among the elected officials need to become a candidate.

Sources and Methods

At each point in time, the FT poll consists of the most recent vote intent poll from ten pollsters, compiled by NSPpolls, European elections and FT journalists. The averages of their results are weighted to give more recent polls greater influence.

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