Come on, don’t hide Thursday night, it’s been pretty awful. The good run we ran ended up hitting a roadblock, and it did so wonderfully.
It’s a new day and we’re counting on the numbers and trends to back bets in favor of shot on goal (SOG).
On the five-game standings, I see value, and as such, we have five NHL turns of the night.
Vladimir Tarasenko on 2.5 SOG (-142 FD)
I know the odds aren’t high here, but this is a case of not wanting to tie another outcome to a play I really enjoy.
Tarasenko has been playing consistently lately, beating SOG in seven of his last nine home games. His efforts have led the team, averaging 6.0 in the last five.
Wild have been more generous with road hits, allowing 32.1 in their last 10 and 31.8 in their last 5.
In Tarasenko’s only meeting with Minnesota this season, he finished with 5 SOGs in 8 tries.
As we’ll dig into more closely, Wild has recently allowed teams a relatively small amount of power play opportunities, and Tarasenko has been second on the team in terms of strength games over the past 25 games.
He will start our evening.
Josh Morrissey on 2.5 SOG (+110 DK)
We’re back with old friend Josh Morrissey, who continues to fight his SOG.
He has now scored this goal in 12 of his last 16 games, including eight out of 10 at home. He’s also passed 2.5 goals in both games against Colorado this season.
Avs are a good target for the defence, allowing for 12th shots into position since March 1 and have seen defensive players regularly get past three SOGs against them recently.
As a team, Colorado are on 35.1 shots per game on the road in their last 10 games, making them a great target tonight.
Pierre-Luc Dubois on 2.5 SOG (-145 DK)
I’m twice against the Battle of Avalanche, I think there’s enough to go around.
I know he’s a different guy but I can’t ignore both Dubois’ success and his effort numbers.
PLD has covered its SOG in five out of six and four at home. It’s his home volume that really brings this to life. In his previous five appearances for Winnipeg, Dubois averaged 7.0 shots per game.
With a 63% success rate for the year at home, I’m ready for a juice against this generous opponent. Dubois has scored 10 times against Colorado in two games this season.
Valeri Nichuskin on 2.5 SOG (-130 DK)
We stayed in this game with Valeri Nichuskin. We uploaded Nichuskin the other night before he missed the game, and the logic of it all remained the same.
He is rolling with injuries that are plaguing this squad, overcoming 2.5 SOGs in eight tenths, often finishing with four.
Winnipeg is allowing 34.2 shots per game at home in their past 10 games, I want Nichuskin to stay with him here.
.5u: Steven Stamkos & David Perron on 2.5 SOG (+250 DK)
Consider this an experiment.
Stamkos is playing against Boston, a team that has averaged the most penalties per game in the 10th round. Perron is playing against a Minnesota team with similar problems, averaging the eighth most penalties per game over the same period. A period of time.
When cutting power shots in the last 25 games, these players are heavily involved in their team so it’s right to keep track of the data.
Stamkos is second in the NHL for the last 25 games with 34 power shots, 16 ahead of the next closest player on Lightning.
Perron is third in the NHL this time around, with 30 shots at power play. This is 12 more than the next closest Blues player (Tarasenko from top).
I think you can understand this logic. I’m combining the two and risking only half a unit, for science.
Good luck on Friday night! Get back on track in the NHL this Friday night.
