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Glenn Youngkin wrote the GOP playbook to navigate the Trump factor. Can it be replicated in 2022?


That is regardless of operating in opposition to a rival, Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, whose closing message — in speeches, debates and tv ads — was devoted virtually solely to convincing voters that Youngkin was no completely different than Trump.

Republicans say Youngkin’s win affords the social gathering classes it may well apply throughout the 2022 midterm election panorama. Youngkin walked a tightrope on the right-wing grievances being fueled by conservative media. He mentioned he favors auditing voting machines often, with out embracing Trump’s lies about widespread voter fraud. He mentioned he would ban important race concept, however characterised his place as favoring instructing “the great and the dangerous” of historical past with out pitting kids in opposition to one another.

“Youngkin successful exhibits that ‘Cease the Steal’ is not the successful formulation for purple states,” a Georgia Republican operative mentioned.

It was a efficiency that got here with the electoral upside that Trump had introduced the GOP with its base — with out the price of dropping moderates and independents. Youngkin delivered a dominant, Trump-like efficiency amongst White voters in rural Virginia. However he additionally received again a share of the suburbanites who had deserted Trump and handed Democrats management of the Home in 2018 and the presidency in 2020.

“The largest factor Youngkin was capable of do was bridge the hole between the more and more populist base and a number of the extra mild-mannered conventional Republicans voters who blanched at Trump’s type,” mentioned veteran Republican strategist Liam Donovan.

Exit polls from 2017 and 2021 show the key groups that helped Youngkin turn Virginia red

Trump endorsed Youngkin and issued a sequence of statements praising him. He additionally held an invite-only tele-rally on the eve of the election that was organized with out Youngkin’s involvement. However he didn’t go to the state, and after his ban from main social media platforms, didn’t have a big position within the race.

“Glenn benefited from Trump’s comparatively low profile, each within the sense that his absence undermined McAuliffe’s most well-liked argument, and since his nominal help was nonetheless a key signifier for motivating MAGA-minded voters who would possibly in any other case be cautious of an establishment-friendly candidate,” Donovan mentioned.

Youngkin led a ticket that swept Republicans into energy in a state the place President Joe Biden had received by 10 factors only one 12 months earlier.

“In Virginia a minimum of, with out Trump on the poll, Republicans are successful again Romney-Clinton voters quicker than Democrats are successful again Obama-Trump voters or discovering new voters. If that development holds, there isn’t a math that offers Democrats the Home, Senate, or White Home,” wrote Dan Pfeiffer, a long-time high aide to former President Barack Obama.

Schooling’s central position

On the core of Youngkin’s win, many Republicans mentioned, was his message on training.

Home Minority Chief Kevin McCarthy instructed reporters Wednesday that as many as 70 Home seats can be aggressive subsequent 12 months. He mentioned Republicans will unveil a “parental invoice of rights” because the GOP seeks to make training and cultural points a centerpiece of the social gathering’s midterm technique.

“Youngkin’s success reveals that Republicans can and should develop into the social gathering of oldsters. There may be actual vitality from dad and mom that we have to perceive,” Rep. Jim Banks, the Indiana Republican who chairs the conservative Republican Research Committee, wrote in a three-page memo that outlined a sequence of insurance policies GOP candidates may marketing campaign on in 2022.
Democrats struggle to find message on culture wars amid GOP success in Virginia

“Democrats are attacking our colleges in new methods, and conservatives should alter,” Banks wrote. “Glenn Youngkin understood this. He knew dad and mom weren’t simply involved about conventional training points, however fairly seen training as an extension of the tradition conflict.”

Youngkin tapped into the grievances of oldsters with a combination of education-focused messages: He pledged to finish coronavirus-related protocols and maintain colleges open full-time. He mentioned he would ship pay raises for academics and extra funding for particular training. He dedicated to a speedy growth of constitution faculty choices. He promised parental involvement in colleges’ curriculum, and mentioned he would ban the instructing of important race concept, which is not a part of Virginia’s training requirements however has nonetheless develop into a well-liked goal amongst Republicans.

After which, with a gaffe of their second and last debate, McAuliffe helped Youngkin unite the constituencies for these disparate messages.

“I do not assume dad and mom must be telling colleges what they need to educate,” McAuliffe mentioned in that debate.

CNN’s exit polls confirmed that 52% of Virginia voters mentioned dad and mom ought to have “rather a lot” of say in what’s taught in colleges — and Youngkin bought the votes of 77% of that group, whereas McAuliffe received by large margins amongst those that mentioned “some” or “not a lot.”

At Youngkin’s rally in Richmond the day earlier than the election, Anne Taydus, a stay-at-home mom from Chesterfield County who mentioned she bought concerned in native faculty board conferences this 12 months, wore a shirt that mentioned: “Kids first, widespread sense second, politics and worry useless final.”

“It is not nearly Virginia, it isn’t nearly Chesterfield County, it is everyone, individuals who have had their hope and their religion in America squashed by the Democrats and the Democratic Get together,” she mentioned.

“You do not mess with the children,” she mentioned. “You simply do not mess with the youngsters and that is a nationwide feeling.”

Youngkin’s built-in benefits

Youngkin had a number of benefits that will be troublesome for different candidates to duplicate — together with private wealth that allowed him to outline himself in tv adverts earlier than McAuliffe may successfully hyperlink him to Trump.

Youngkin additionally benefitted from Virginia Republicans selecting their gubernatorial nominee at a conference, fairly than holding a drawn-out main during which fealty to Trump would have doubtless develop into the defining challenge.

A key query dealing with Republicans subsequent 12 months is whether or not candidates who can win normal elections will survive main contests in opposition to extra strident, Trump-aligned figures, and whether or not the social gathering’s base will rally round them in the event that they do. In any other case, the social gathering may face losses harking back to blown races by hard-line conservatives in 2010 and 2012.

Trump, for his half, has made clear that he intends to insert himself into races and declare credit score for GOP victories.

“I want to thank my BASE for popping out in drive and voting for Glenn Youngkin. With out you, he wouldn’t have been near successful,” he mentioned in an announcement. “The MAGA motion is larger and stronger than ever earlier than.”

Youngkin additionally introduced his personal strengths to the desk. The previous Rice basketball participant and chief govt of the non-public fairness agency The Carlyle Group was an unproven commodity as a first-time candidate — and carried the chance of dealing with assaults just like these Mitt Romney confronted as a presidential candidate in 2012.

“Glenn proved to be a extremely stable, pure retail pol, which as a primary time candidate was not at all times assured. You’ll be able to’t educate that,” Donovan mentioned.

Biden’s declining favorability, mentioned one GOP strategist concerned in 2022 races who was readily available for Youngkin’s victory social gathering in Chantilly on Tuesday evening, gave Youngkin a gap with voters starting to doubt Democratic insurance policies.

However the strategist mentioned Youngkin additionally tapped right into a sequence of points — crime, the economic system and training — that may work for Republicans in different states, too. Youngkin drew contrasts with McAuliffe and tapped into financial points which have emerged throughout Biden’s presidency with out reminding voters of Trump.

Schooling was a very salient challenge in Virginia for Youngkin, the strategist mentioned; different points, equivalent to immigration, would possibly play that position in different states.

“Youngkin had a message, was very disciplined and dealt with Trump with respect. Virginia punished Biden too,” mentioned Scott Reed, the previous chief political strategist for the US Chamber of Commerce.

CNN’s Dan Merica, Michael Warren and Melanie Zanona contributed to this report.



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