How Canada Can Qualify for the World Cup in Qatar: Explaining Scenarios for CanMNT in 2022

Canada has qualified for only one FIFA Men’s World Cup in the nation’s history, but that could change before the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Les Rouges are leading the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers with eight games already past, and there is a real possibility that Canada could qualify for its first World Cup since 1986. Still, still There’s still a lot of work to be done to secure one of the three direct slots against a contested group of four teams.

The United States is just one point behind in second place, with a head-to-head showdown between the two sides set to emerge at the end of the month. Mexico and Panama are also two points behind, meaning things can change quickly, especially with three games spanning seven days at the end of January.

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The upcoming 9th match will be very important. Since all the top four teams are two points apart and all four are facing the bottom four, it’s entirely possible that a bad result could change the outcome of the qualifying round.

CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Rankings

Below are the current standings in the race to qualify for the 2022 World Cup from the CONCACAF region.

The top three teams qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, while the fourth-placed team will play an intercontinental playoff against the winner of the Oceana region. The bottom four teams are eliminated.

Canada 16 8 4 0 4 13 5 +8
USA 15 8 4 first 3 twelfth 5 +7
Mexico 14 8 4 2 2 11 7 +4
Panama 14 8 4 2 2 11 9 +2
Costa Rica 9 8 2 3 3 6 7 -first
Jamaica 7 8 first 3 4 6 ten -4
El Salvador 6 8 first 4 3 4 ten -6
Honduras 3 8 0 5 3 5 15 -ten

Canada World Cup qualifying results and fixtures

Below is a complete list of past results and upcoming matches for Canada in its quest for a place in the 2022 World Cup.

Day Competition Time (ET) TV / Stream
September 2, 2021 Canada first, Honduras first Highlights
September 5, 2021 USA first, Canada first Highlights
September 8, 2021 Canada 3, El Salvador 0 Highlights
October 7, 2021 Mexico first, Canada first Highlights
October 10, 2021 Jamaica 0, Canada 0 Highlights
October 13, 2021 Canada 4, Panama first Highlights
November 12, 2021 Canada first, Costa Rica 0 Highlights
November 16, 2021 Canada 2, Mexico first Highlights
January 27, 2022 Honduras and Canada 8:05 p.m. ET
January 30, 2022 Canada vs USA 3:05 p.m. ET
February 2, 2022 El Salvador and Canada 9 p.m. ET
March 24, 2022 Costa Rica and Canada TBD
March 27, 2022 Canada vs Jamaica TBD
March 30, 2022 Panama and Canada TBD

How many points to qualify for the World Cup?

If we are using previous regional World Cup qualifying cycles for historical comparison, we need to use the points per game (PPG) index, as only 10 matches took place in the CONCACAF finals. in previous cycles (compared to 14 matches on the pre-Qatar 2022 calendar).

Despite the different number of matches, the top three still qualify directly for each of the World Cups listed below (each qualifying team’s score per game is bolded). And since the 2006 World Cup, the fourth-place team advances to a play-off against a country from another region.

Qualification Day 1 2nd 3rd 4th day 5 6th Saturday 8th
1998 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6
2002 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.5
2006 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.2
2010 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.6
2014 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5
2018 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.6
2022 * 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.4

Predict Canada’s qualifying results

So what needs to happen in practice for Canada to comfortably stay in the 1.8-1.9 points-per-game range they need to qualify without breaking a sweat? Or, if fans want to dream big, how can they push the 2.0 PPG barrier to claim the top spot?

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We tried to predict outcomes for the last six matches, taking a series of less favorable results to find the minimum needed to qualify comfortably. Canada are currently unbeaten in first place, but they have only two home games left in their last six (against the US and Jamaica) with four trips to Central America coming up.

The less favorable set of results includes one loss and three draws in those last six games. Considering the possibility of losing to the US at home, plus draws against Panama, Costa Rica and Honduras, a total of 25 points (and an approximate performance of 1.8 points per game) is enough to qualify.

However, those results allow for very little error, as negligence in any match will complicate things. For example, a draw against Jamaica or El Salvador instead of a win would leave Canada in a very vulnerable position (1.6 PPG), especially if the other teams around them go on to win. Obviously, a result (perhaps a win?) against the United States at home would go a long way to allay those fears.

Canada’s strong start has given them some headroom and CanMNT supporters will be hoping the team can avoid a scenario where they will need a result in their final game in Panama to claim a spot. location in Qatar.

Competition Day Opponent / Result PPG
9 Thursday, January 27, 2022 Honduras 0, Canada 0 (Draw a picture) 1.9
ten Sunday January 30, 2022 Canada 0, United States 1 (Lose) 1.7
11 Wednesday, February 2, 2022 El Salvador 0, Canada 2 (win) 1.8
twelfth Thursday, March 24, 2022 Costa Rica 1, Canada 1 (Draw a picture) 1.8
13 Sunday, March 27, 2022 Canada 1, Jamaica 0 (win) 1.8
14 Wednesday, March 30, 2022 Panama 2, Canada 2 (Draw a picture) 1.8

How Canada secured a place in the World Cup

With six games left in qualifying and four teams leading within two points, there’s still a lot of work to do and a razor-thin margin of error.

The top four are clearly established, with a relatively large gap between fourth and fifth. Only three points guarantee eligibility; 4th place will have to play a knockout intercontinental playoff with a representative from Oceania, likely New Zealand.

Canada is eight-game unbeaten, with four wins and four draws against the Maple Leafs, and the ability to secure results on the road is key. They have drawn on-road draws against the United States, Mexico and Jamaica. Add those to the 4W-0L-1D home record, including the famous 2-1 home win over Mexico, and the points are in full swing.

THAN: How the World Cup’s Intercontinental Qualifiers Work

The schedule sees four of the final six games coming up, so Canada will need a road warrior mentality to move forward. The remaining two home games against the United States and Jamaica will be crucial.

Canadian fans will be hoping results from a trio of games coming up at the end of January – including a home game against the US – will allow them to take control of their fate to advance into the international window. Final.

Shirts on the CONCACAF chart

There is always the possibility that the CONCACAF rankings are extremely tight and that Canada is tied with one or more of the other seven countries in the qualifying rankings. Lace tops will be born.

Here is the standings for the teams even by points:

  1. Goal difference in all group stage matches
  2. Score the most goals in all group stage matches
  3. Most of the points are obtained from group stage matches between the teams involved
  4. Goal difference compared to group stage matches between the teams involved
  5. Most of the goals were scored in group stage matches between the teams involved
  6. Goal scored away (if two teams tie)
  7. Disciplinary points (based on yellow/red cards)
  8. FIFA draw

The Qatar FIFA World Cup will take place from November 21 to December 18, 2022.

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