Investors see a pullback for stocks before year-end, Deutsche Bank survey

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LONDON — The majority of investors are expecting the stock market to drop between 5% and 10% before the end of the year, according to a survey from Deutsche Bank.

Its monthly poll, conducted in early September and including more than 550 market professionals worldwide, found that 58% of respondents were expecting a 5% to 10% correction before the year. new. Additionally, another 10% of respondents expect a 10% higher correction.

In contrast, only 31% of those surveyed said there would be no retracement. Last month, Citi also said The stock market is prone to a 10% correction., after a rally for speculative tech names.

NS S&P 500 up about 18% since the beginning of the year, focusing on technology Nasdaq also about 19% higher than the same period. And, in Europe, Stoxx 600 has increased 17% since January.

These performances have been largely supported by the improvement of the health situation in many Western economies since the start of the year. However, there are concerns that the economic picture will deteriorate in the coming months.

The US has experienced an increasing number of Covid-19 cases, which has forced companies to delay their return to office schedules. In addition, there is a shortage of supply for UK consumers, such as seeing empty shelves in grocery stories. And there are also question marks about the future of inflation and the pandemic-era stimulus that central banks have implemented.

Respondents in the survey said that Covid-19 The pandemic remains their top concern going forward, but higher-than-expected inflation comes in second. One of the reasons behind this is that if consumer prices stay high for a long time, this will trigger central bank to ease their stimulus at a faster rate, which will impact financial markets.

The same survey found inflation expectations for the U.S. at around 2.6% over the next five years, with the majority of investors seeing consumer prices overshoot. Federal Reserve’target s.

Fed President Jerome Powell in August said the central bank would allow inflation to rise above the standard 2% target before raising interest rates. More recently, Powell said that the central bank could begin lifting Covid-related stimulus before the end of the year.


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