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La Niña will hit Australia with summer rain during the wet and windy holiday period


Meteorologists around the world, including Australia, have been warning for months that La Niña conditions are forming in the Pacific and Tuesday’s announcement means parts of the country are in warning of potential flooding and the rise of tropical cyclones.

“In terms of tropical cyclones, for La Niña we tend to see more than average – perhaps about a 65% chance of seeing more than the average number of 11 tropical cyclones,” The head of the climate service operations, Andrew Watkins, said at a news conference.

Similar parts of the country already have wet soils, full rivers and high basins from prolonged rains.

“Any further rainfall would increase the risk of widespread flooding, typically in southeastern Australia,” he said.

The news dents plans for the millions of Australians planning local beach holidays over the Christmas summer, many of whom have only recently emerged following the closures that caused the storm. out pandemic.

But La Niña offers a number of advantages, including cooler temperatures in the summer, which can often soar above 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit).

“The good news about La Niña is that it tends to reduce the risk of wildfires,” says Watkins. “At least for the big wildfires that we’ve seen a few years ago, the risk has lessened.”

La Niña usually occurs over periods of several years to a decade, and often lasts for a year or two, but one has formed after another.

What is La Nina?

La Niña is part of a natural cycle known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation – or ENSO – and occurs when cold water accumulates on the west coast of mainland South America.

Dragged by strong winter winds, the cold water surged westward across the Pacific Ocean, creating a “cold tongue”. This pushes the warmer waters and thus the high-pressure system in front of it. The resulting weather system – filled with warm, water-laden air – caused unusually heavy rain as it made landfall.

Its impact varies in different parts of the world.

In the United States, for example, La Niña typically brings wetter and cooler conditions to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, but it yields drier and warmer than average conditions for the northern states. south, which could exacerbate drought conditions in some areas there.

For Australia, cooler waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, coupled with stronger and persistent southeast to northwesterly winds, help shift clouds westward, closer to the country, the BOM explained. like.

“The last major La Niña match was 2010-12,” said Watkins. This powerful event has seen major impacts across Australia, including Australia’s wettest two-year period on record and widespread flooding,” Watkins said.

Link to climate change?

It remains unclear to what extent global warming may be contributing to La Niña’s intensity, with records of the event lasting only 60 years.

El Niño and La Niña are events that occur naturally as part of Earth’s weather systems, but research is beginning to show that rising global temperatures could soften or change their effects. .

A 2018 study of atmospheric conditions ran simulations of climate conditions and found that climate change can increase the severity of weather events stemming from El Niño patterns. .

It's not your imagination.  Weather and climate disasters have become more frequent since the years & # 39;  70

In addition to hurricane impacts, climate change could mean that some of the older temperature patterns associated with El Niño and La Niña no longer apply.

While La Niña tends to lower temperatures, global warming is happening so fast that its effects are sometimes muted.

Long-term weather patterns across Australia are notoriously difficult to predict, and the BOM has gathered oral evidence from Aboriginal Australians to better understand the continent’s weather cycles.

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