When the Bills head to the Saints for an unofficial game on Thursday night to complete the NFL’s Thanksgiving action (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), it will be about two lackluster playoff teams trying to get back to their feet. right way again.
Buffalo (6-4) has dropped to 7th seed in the AFC playoff rankings. Likewise, New Orleans (5-5) has dropped to last place in the NFC playoff picture. No tie, one team will continue to slide while the other team will come off the mat.
The Bills have slowed uncomfortably with Josh Allen and last week their solid defence was attacked by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. The Saints are struggling to find offensive identity with Trevor Siemian starting in QB and running back to Alvin Kamara (knee), their top offensive weapon, missing time. Their solid defenses were also burned in Week 11, by Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.
Will the Bills be caught looking ahead with the Patriots? Or will the Saints think too much about shooting at the Cowboys next week?
Here’s everything there is to know about Bills vs. Saints in Week 12, featuring updated odds, trends and our predictions for the 2021 NFL Thanksgiving game.
Odds Bills vs. Saints for NFL Thanksgiving
- Transmitted: Bill of 6
- On lower: 45.5
- Moneyine: Bills -270, Saints +220
The Bills head into New Orleans as the near-favorite contender despite falling to the Colts at home and going pretty far in a short week. However, The Saints have lost three games in a row to the Falcons, Titans and Eagles. The number is right there, as is the total of the usual defensive strengths of both teams.
(betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)
The All Time Series Bills vs. Saints
The two teams have met only 11 times, with a score of 7-4 in the series of The Saints. From 2001 to 17, The Saints won 5 games in a row to turn deficits into dominance. The Bills last won in New Orleans in December 1998.
Three trends to know
—67 percent of spread bettors expect the Saints to make the night loser at home in desperation mode and keep the game closer to six points, denying the Bills a cover.
—81 percent of over/under bets think the modest sum is too high and go with the lower as the Bills and Saints have struggled to attack and face good defence.
—The Bills are 5-4-1 by the margin along with their straight 6-4 record. The total has surpassed half of their games. The Saints are 5-5 ATS to match their record, but the total has passed in their six games.
Three things to see
Will Wil have more Taysom Hill?
The Saints have just re-executed Hill’s contract to promote him as a special change of all offensive trades for Sean Payton or their early straight-start quarterback. Hill was injured, first a concussion and then a leg injury. But now he is healthy and Siemian (right hand) is facing a problem of his own. With Kamara and Mark Ingram (knees) in pain, New Orleans desperately needed to throw out Hill’s wrinkle against the Bills defense.
Stefan Diggs vs. the Saints
He burned them for “Minneapolis Miracle” while playing wide receiver for Vikings. Additionally, in the regular two games of the season against the Saints, Diggs caught a total of 17 of 19 goals at 212 yards and 3 TDs. In his previous two games for the Bills, Diggs caught a total of 12 of 19 goals at 185 yards and 3 TDs. The Saints have Marshon Lattimore, but they can be torn up elsewhere. Safety Marcus Williams will never forget how Diggs overcame him in the knockout stages.
The protection of The Bills ‘run
There is no Taylor type in this game with Kamara on the shelf. The Bills still have the right to defend the No. 9 in the NFL even though Taylor forced them to file last week. If they shut down the Saints after a weakened offensive line lacking Terron Armstead, Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk, they would win easily.
181.8. That’s the average number of passes per game the Bills have brought in this season, second only to the Panthers. Meanwhile, The Saints are number 22 with an average of 252.2 passing yards per game. Allen should feel pretty comfortable with the fun approach. Siemian, on the verge of losing main game time to Hill, is facing bigger struggles at home after throwing a six pick against the Eagles.
Predict Bills vs. Saints
The Bills are a much more talented and engaged team with coach Sean McDermott. They struggled with Allen’s need to readjust their defense and some limitations in passing. But Diggs and defense can deal a lot of damage alone to take care of business and avoid falling into a trap.
Bills 27, Saints 17