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Punishment History – The New York Times


In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine late last month, Western powers turned to an increasingly popular play: grave A series of sanctions have an immediate and devastating impact on the economy, financial system and people of Russia.

The use of these types of punishments has increased dramatically in recent years, according to Global sanctions databaseA project from Drexel University has become the most comprehensive tally of its kind.



Constantinos Syropoulos and Yoto Yotov, trade economists and two of the researchers behind the database, suggest that one factor driving the popularity of sanctions may be resistance. participation in military conflicts. The United States, for example, has long used sanctions as a foreign policy tool. But it has accelerated their use over the past 20 years, as support has waned for the costly and unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

According to Drexel data, the United States is responsible for the most sanctions cases, accounting for 42% of them since 1950. This is followed by the European Union, with 12% and the United Nations, at 7%.

Sanctions are also becoming increasingly specific. The intent is often to punish the responsible parties directly – without harming the citizens of the target country, weakening that country’s economy, or jeopardizing commercial relationships. value with allied nations.

As their use increases, so does the pressing question: Are sanctions effective? “There is no doubt in our mind that sanctions are very, very painful economically,” Mr. Yotov said. However, he added, “this does not mean they will achieve their end goal.”

To gauge the success of sanctions in their database, the researchers compared stated policy goals for each case with decisions from governments or major sources. knowledge like the United Nations about whether the goal was achieved. Using this framework, they found that about half of the goals stated in the sanctions cases were at least partially achieved and about 35% were fully achieved. These estimates are roughly in line with previous research, although Yotov and Syropoulos cautioned that quantifying the goals or outcomes of sanctions inherently involves a degree of subjectivity and behavior. prize.

Do sanctions achieve their stated goals?

Specific target for sanctions cases from 1950-2019, by results

Source: Global Sanctions Database

The success or failure of a goal is based on the official reports collected.

These numbers include only sanctions that have been imposed, but sometimes just a threat is enough to achieve a particular goal. Estimates from others database which includes cases of threat and imposition of sanctions up to 2005 shows that if threatened cases of sanctions are counted alongside cases when they are imposed, the rate the success of sanctions will generally be higher. And even if the goal is not achieved, the enforcement of sanctions can make future threats of sanctions more credible, says T. Clifton Morgan, political scientist at the University of California. from Rice and is the lead researcher behind the database.

In the current crisis, the threat of sanctions has not deterred Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it is too early to say whether the imposition will help encourage an end to the war. Determining what makes sanctions successful involves many factors, including the degree to which they are coordinated across countries and how important the underlying cause is – in this case, desirable. President Vladimir Putin’s control of Ukraine – is over the target country.

Whether they achieve their stated goals or not, such penalties are often very effective in causing extreme economic pain and severely reducing the quality of life in the target country. The Russians are going through this right now – as they did to a lesser extent after 2014, when the country’s GDP fell by almost 2% after sanctions were imposed while global oil prices fell.


Russia is still recovering from previous sanctions

Russia’s Gross Domestic Product in Current US Dollars





2014

Sanctions against Russia

for the annexation of Crimea, when oil prices fell

2014

Sanctions against Russia

for the annexation of Crimea, when oil prices fell


Source: World Bank

During the current crisis, the first wave of sanctions against Russia was mainly financial. The international assets of oligarchs and other powerful Russians within Mr. Putin have been frozen and their travel abroad restricted. Russian banks have been excluded from the vital communication system used for international transactions. These actions are part of a broader strategy to cut off the means by which Putin funds his war effort.

Source: Global Sanctions Database

Note: A single instance can contain multiple punishment types.

When Russia refused to change course in Ukraine, Western countries rallied their tactics, including blocking Russian oil and gas sales. Private companies like McDonald’s and credit card companies have also shut down in the country, causing even more havoc.

The Russian economy has struggled with the weight of these heavier penalties, and expected fell into default, causing ripples around the world as oil prices and other costs rose.

The reaction to the pile of sanctions is not always predictable. One concern among Western leaders is that Russia could deepen ties with China if it continues to cut ties with the rest of the world. An example of that happened late last week, when Russia’s central bank said some of the country’s financial institutions can start using China’s credit card system after Visa and Mastercard stopped working there.

According to Dursun Peksen, a political scientist at the University of Memphis, sometimes sanctions can also have the opposite effect in consolidating an authoritarian government’s power. He found that, as a country became isolated, access to state resources became even more important, and elites united behind the leader and quelled opposition. Sanctions are often detrimental to human rights, democracy, gender equality, press freedom and public health in affected countries such as Iran and Cuba, Peksen’s research shows.

“Russia will become much more authoritarian, much more isolated, and it will be ordinary Russian citizens who will bear the most costs,” he said. Ultimately, he added, when imposing sanctions “we have to strike a balance between political gain and civilian pain.”



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