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Russia and OPEC Are Driving U.S. and China Into an Unlikely Partnership


The past seems to exercise its own gravity. Even as continuous progress propels us forward, with all our knowledge rooted in memory we tend to see contemporary events in the light of the past rather than the future they are constantly opening up. That could be a dangerous trap.

While George Santayana famously wrote in his book, The Life of Reason: Stages of Human Progress, that “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” a paradoxical corollary is also true. Those who cannot stop seeing the world primarily in the past are condemned as unprepared for change.

The risks of that are seems especially urgent this week. Major developments on the world stage have evoked defining moments of 20th century, but seeing them primarily in that light can lead us to make the wrong choices in response to them. Helpfully, an event taking place next week will serve as a reminder that the international landscape of the 21st century is very different from that with which many of our leaders are most familiar, a reminder that that — if we pay attention — can help guide us to smarter decisions going forward.

In recent days, headlines have echoed the crises of the past 60 or 70 years, dominated by concerns about nuclear confrontation with Russia or tensions with oil-producing nations in China. Winter. But as Chinese Party Congress will convene next week and that country commits its journey for the foreseeable future, which will remind us that geopolitics in the years to come will be increasingly influenced by the presence, The needs, ambitions, and weaknesses of a new and very different nation state. Properly considered, these factors will help us see the world, the risks we face, and the choices ahead in a new way.

For example, while many analysts are quick to note that OPEC’s decision to production restrictions in the coming months– hoping to push up oil prices – as a blow to the US and the West and aid to Russia, they ignored the note that Beijing, heavily dependent on foreign energy, was also hit hard. by this decision.

That is not to minimize the fact that OPEC has consciously put forward a “middle finger“With the Biden administration, it is well known that this decision is something the United States hopes can be avoided or postponed, and that it will have a negative effect on the political prospects of President Biden’s party in the election. coming soon in the United States.

OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais (R) and Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud (2nd L) hold a press conference after the 2nd OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting. 33 in Vienna, Austria on October 5, 2022.

Askin Kiyagan / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Even before the decision was made, senior U.S. officials pointed out to me that it became increasingly clear in the weeks and months following Biden’s trip to the region this past July that Arabs Saudi Arabia (and especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman) are proving very difficult and unreliable partners. However, the acumen of the response from the administration and from Democrats on Capitol Hill has highlighted that the decision is particularly unwelcome and appears to undercut all of the rationale for Biden’s visit. during the summer, while especially bad omen for future relationships between Riyadh and Washington.

OPEC’s cooperation with Russia in its brutal war against Ukraine also seems to indicate which side the region is choosing, and carries with it the echoes of Cold War competition for influence in China. East, as well as past episodes, in which oil producers sought to increase their weight. But in taking action that alienates not only the United States and its allies from Europe to Japan, but also a China already grappling with economic difficulties and potentially suffering an oil price shock, OPEC’s decision must be considered short-sighted.

The past week has resonated with Michael Corleone, as events seem to be saying that ‘just when we think we’re out of the 20th century, it seems to pull us back in.’

Perhaps most importantly, it serves as an important reminder that the strongest responses the United States can muster to OPEC are those that are at least tacitly coordinated with China — and thus It is also a reminder of the dangers of viewing American and Western relationships with the organization. A 21st-century adversary emerges in the same way that we once viewed a 20th-century Cold War adversary as a mistake. Indeed, the fact that the West and China’s combined energy interests will drive a reduction in worldwide demand for fossil fuels will ultimately dispel the growing irrelevance. of the oils that once made a big splash.

Gas prices in Los Angeles County, California, on October 3, 2022.

Zeng Hui / Xinhua via Getty Images

Of course, that’s not good news for Russia, which the late Senator John McCain once described as “gas station masquerading as a country. “As such, this is a reminder of the fact that if the US and China find ways to work together towards green energy innovation and combating climate change, that will have the effect of weakening Russia. .

At the same time, Russia’s growing reliance on China’s current energy needs—while many of its customers reduce their reliance on their energy sources as a result of sanctions related to Ukraine—for China to increase its power over Russia. That influence is amplified by the fact that Russia as a nation state has obvious and growing social, economic and military weaknesses. needs its partnership with China to stay relevant as a “main power.”

For these reasons, the United States and our allies have wisely sought to reach out to China to help contain Russian behavior in Ukraine. The success of that effort to date – including discouraging China from supplying Russia with weapons to support its invasion – shows that recognition of power is shifting in this era. this new.

That dynamic is especially important amid another flashback to 20th-century threats last week, President Biden’s comment on Thursday regarding the nuclear threat made by Putin that “We hasn’t faced the prospect of Armageddon since the Kennedys and the Cuban Missile Crisis. ” Biden also said that he doesn’t feel Putin can use tactical nuclear weapons and “doesn’t end up with Armageddon.”

Reminiscent of the worst days of the Cold War as Biden remarked, they shouldn’t have created the kind of eyeball confrontation that marked the Cuban Missile Crisis and its darkest moments. That is because Russia is not only comparatively weaker (as demonstrated in Ukraine) and the West is relatively stronger, but also because Russia is clearly a minor partner in the burgeoning relationship with China. . And for that relationship, Russia’s use of nuclear weapons will be both a rationale for China’s need to maintain global stability so it can focus on economic issues that are important to China. with their own cohesion as a nation. Further, of course, Russia’s use of nuclear weapons would undermine China’s security interests as a response to Russia would inevitably profoundly weaken a security ally that China has established. National hopes they can depend on.

In other words, China doesn’t want Russia to denuclearize in Ukraine any more than we do.

President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021.

Mandel Ngan / AFP via Getty Images

And that’s what we and our allies can do to help manage this situation — just as cooperation with China will be essential to solving many of the other central issues of decades. next. This includes the climate crisis (as cited above) to pandemics, and from regional conflicts to internet regulation and security and next-generation technologies.

This Sunday, in Beijing, the 20th National Party Congress of the Communist Party of China will summon. In the short term, the five-yearly event will consolidate Chinese President Xi Jinping’s power and confirm his status as China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. However, it will also provide insights into both how he intends to hold that power and who might be positioned to one day succeed him. You can also look forward to further expression about China’s ascendant role on the world stage and Xi’s clear intention to use that role to assert China’s influence and consolidate its economic and political power over the years. next.

Almost certainly, the response to Congress will activate significant faction among U.S. officials, analysts, and commentators who see the future of U.S. relations with China as a war. Second Cold War. Again, such framing of the 20th century is a mistake.

For the reasons outlined above, the US and the West have much more shared interests with China – and China needs to use its influence to support our goals far more than they do. we used to do with or with the Soviet Union. Furthermore, with 70,000 U.S. businesses in China and our economies deeply intertwined, zero-sum Cold War thinking is completely out of place here.

As last week showed, and next week will highlight, future demands that we set aside patterns and biases of the past. That future will not be less complicated, but it will be more complicated. Finding a way to manage a relationship with a new competitor with whom we have many interdependent relationships is a complex thing that we must master. Understanding your competitors’ needs and relationships with the rest of the world is another. Understanding how new technologies will reshape economic and geopolitical relationships and the nature of power is a third.

The past week has resonated with Michael Corleone, as events seem to be saying “just when we think we’re out of the 20th century, it seems to pull us back.”

But it was an illusion and a profound mistake at the time. It is important that as we consider the major challenges of this moment and the future, as we do so, keeping in mind the views of the players we will be forced to compete with — and who will seek to lead with us or be in our place on the global stage instead of being distracted by Putins and old school spoilers who are fighting for their last moment of relevance before being brought in Trash of history.

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