Russia’s Wagner Corporation, a shadowy paramilitary organization tied to the Kremlin, has play an important role in Libya, supporting the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) rebel military commander Khalifa Haftar during the country’s civil war.
In recent weeks, Western observers have begun to wonder if Wagner’s forces will withdraw from Libya to replace them. focus on support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
While Moscow may need to adjust and reconfigure its mission in Libya, there is good reason to expect the Russians to continue their campaign, which has helped shape the architecture security in eastern Libya, where Haftar is based and entrenched.
“Before February 24” [when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began]no indication of secret Russian mission [in Libya] Jalel Harchaoui, a researcher specializing in Libya, told Al Jazeera.
“It’s pretty quiet. Libyans who live nearby [Russian] The base was used to seeing some Russians at the grocery store. Several camps, bases and airbases are known to be completely controlled by the Russians,” added Harchaoui. “In those particular cases, even the LNA itself sometimes needs to get permission before entering a base.”
While there are some unconfirmed reports that Russian mercenaries have been withdrawn from the country to fight in Ukraine, the majority have remained.
“Quantity [Russian] Ferhat Polat, a Libya researcher at the TRT Center for World Studies, said the fighters making their way to Ukraine will probably be small because the Kremlin wants a stake in Libya’s future and needs fighters. hire this foreigner to maintain their forces on the country”.
Maintaining a military presence in Libya is key to Russia’s agendas elsewhere in terms of Continent of Africaespecially in the Sahel region.
For example, at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, Russian aircraft transport Armed personnel and weapons from Syria arrived in Mali via an airbase near Benghazi.
“You clearly believe in the enduring and enduring character of the Russian footprint in Libya. Harchaoui said. “Even cutting, mitigating about 300 or 400 individuals is not the end of the mission. It does not predetermine, announce, or intensify surrender. “
It is important to consider the extent to which Russia’s Role in Eastern Libya has become important not only to Haftar and those Libyans affiliated with him, such as parliament-appointed Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha, but also other outside actors whose stakes in the future are uncertain of the North African country.
The Russians had built a presence in Libya that made Haftar structurally unable to separate itself from Moscow.
A complete withdrawal of Russian forces from the country would disrupt the balance of power that has preserved Haftar’s permanence in the east. With at least three airbases, military camps and spies on the ground, the Russians retain vast amounts of leverage in Libya without any significant power wanting to seriously diminish.
“NATO has no plan to eliminate Russia [from Libya],” Harchaoui explained. “The reason is, because Haftar is the only security architecture for large areas of Libya – mainly the eastern half. Haftar is someone you cannot preserve if you go after the Russians. If you forcibly remove the Russians, you will automatically and surely weaken Haftar.”
Turkey-Russia balancing act
Turkey, one of NATO’s most powerful military members, will be closely watching the ways the war in Ukraine could affect Russian influence in the Maghreb.
Although Ankara and Moscow have supported opposites In Libya, they also maintain a relationship based on “confrontational cooperation” that allows them to pursue economic, political and military goals in their respective regions of the country and elsewhere. .
While Turkey will support another military joint venture against the LNA, Haftar, to launch another offensive as it did in April 2019, Ankara wants to avoid a major confrontation with Russia in Libya.
Reports indicate that Ankara has made several attempts at dialogue with Bashagha in recent weeks, including inviting him to Turkey and agreeing to push against Bashagha, the UN-backed prime minister. , Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, participated in the negotiations. Bashagha and Dbeibah both require to lead the legitimate government of Libya.
Russia, facing economic, military and diplomatic pressure at home, is unlikely to help Haftar launch another large-scale offensive.
“The decisive failure of the LNA attack on Tripoli…will likely prevent a major Russian military intervention in Libya in the future,” said Samuel Ramani, an associate at the Royal United Services Institute. said.
Such a joint venture is likely to face a Turkish-backed and US-backed military counterattack in western Libya, especially given the new geopolitical climate of the world, in which Washington has a desire to oppose Russia. At the same time, Haftar’s oil blockade could trigger sanctions and other tough measures.
Over the years, Haftar and his allies have become known for their demands. Against the backdrop of this year’s tensions, this could trigger a surprisingly tough response from international members, who don’t forget that Russia is being ingrained in Libya by Haftar’s faction.
Even so, Moscow is likely to remain in Libya regardless of the war in Ukraine, for the benefit of a number of countries, including Western allies and partners, without altering the balance of power in the country. this country.
“Egypt, UAE, Israel and France don’t want that.” [a weakening of Haftar],” said Harchaoui. “This [countries] influence Washington, which cares deeply about Egypt. Egypt is a very populous country and this notion of shifting the equilibrium in eastern Libya is seen as a destabilizing threat to the nation of 103 million people.
