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Stock index futures looked cautious on Friday ahead of the February jobs report, but the bond market leaned toward the weak payrolls report.
S&P Futures (SPX) -0.2% and Dow futures (INDIA) -0.2% lower. Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX:IND) does not change when interest rates fall.
“Today’s February jobs report is the most important in a while,” said Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macro. “A repeat of January’s 517K jump will immediately boost expectations for both the ultimate fund rate and the pace of rate hikes over the next few months, hurting both stocks and bonds. , a complete adaptation to the near-zero payroll headline headline, would have had the opposite effect.”
The job number press before ringing. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 200,000, with unemployment rising to 5.1 percent and average hourly earnings up 0.3 percent.
Meanwhile, the banking industry (KBE) continue to struggle later Thursday plunges against concerns about SVB Financial’s health and liquidity.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (US10Y) fell 8 basis points to 3.83% and the 2-year rate (US2Y) fell 11 basis points to 4.78%.
The drop in output was caused yesterday by a spike in jobless claims, though those numbers won’t be in the survey period for February payrolls.
“With the labor market looking weaker than expected, investors have turned to dialing back the rate hikes that are priced in in the coming months,” said Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank.
On Thursday, “two-year yields saw their biggest daily decline since January 6,” he added. “” Long-term Treasuries also rallied… and that even means the curve of the 2010s is also sloping up for the first time in a week.”
Among the positive stocks, SIVB depressed Another 40% like VC companies withdraw capital.
BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky writes: “We consider banking and semis to be two groups that have historically been very good leading indicators. “Normally, the market can be fine if either side is weakening, but when one of them is making a big move you should listen wisely. In this case, the move is too big. will obviously lead to downside.”
