Supply worries about maintaining oil recovery, overcoming recession risks According to Reuters

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Pump jack in action at sunset in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. Image taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS / Nick Oxford / File Photo

By Rahul Paswan

(Reuters) – Oil prices are expected to stay above $100 a barrel this year as Europe and other regions struggle to cut supply from Russia, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. , although economic risks could slow gains.

A survey of 34 economists and analysts forecast an average price of $106.82 a barrel in 2022, the highest prediction for the year so far, compared with a consensus of $101.89. in May.

Brent has averaged around $105 per barrel this year and is currently trading around $116 per barrel, amid supply concerns. [O/R]

“Crude oil will remain bid as long as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to deny much needed global supply,” said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures in Mizuho, ​​New York.

The US Energy Information Administration said last week the global surplus of crude oil production capacity in May 2022 was less than half the 2021 average, the US Energy Information Administration said last week. before, when Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine went into effect. Russian exports account for about 7% of global supply.

Analysts forecast demand growth of around 2.3 to 5 million bpd (bpd) this year and 2-2.4 million bpd in 2023, as tight supply overshadowed concerns concerned about the need.

“Concerns about demand destruction due to stagnant inflation trends and COVID-related lockdowns in China have closed the near-term bullish trend,” said DBS Bank analyst Suvro. here, but as China eases restrictions, demand could pick up again in the third quarter.” Sarkar.

Respondents also predicted muted output responses.

“In fact, many OPEC members – especially some African member states – have struggled to meet even current production quotas, due to low investment and spare capacity OPEC said. overall is still thin,” added Mr. Sarkar.

The focus will be on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+, including Russia, as they begin a series of meetings. Sources say a major policy shift is unlikely.

is seen averaging $102.82/barrel in 2022 compared to May’s $97.82 consensus. [O/R]

“OPEC and the US will try to avoid a repeat of the negative pricing disaster that pervaded the market just two years ago,” Mr. Yawger said.

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