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“The exodus wasn’t so big:” Census Bureau finds moves at 73-year low



The US Census Bureau this week released data showing migration activity has fallen to its lowest level in more than 70 years. The findings pour cold water on the anecdote that Americans are displaced more than ever during the pandemic.

From 2020 to 2021, nearly 27.1 million Americans, or 8.4%, said they live in a different place of residence than the year before, according to the latest geographic mobility data from the U.S. Bureau of Investigation. population census. Migration rates have fallen steadily since 2014-2015, the lowest level in more than 70 years, According to the Census Estimates of Consumer Population Survey data dating back to 1948.

The overall picture is consistent with some ongoing migration research.

While there may not be a big overall trend in terms of people moving across the country, net migration out of urban neighborhoods has increased In the early stages of the pandemic, said Stephan D. Whitaker, a policy economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland who has closely studied migration patterns.

He analyzed the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax’s Consumer Credit Board, which tracks a random sample of the whereabouts of 10 million consumers based on their credit records. The analysis shows that an urban migration is mainly driven by a decrease in the number of people moving into urban neighborhoods.

“The flow of migrants out of large, high-cost metro areas has increased during the pandemic,” Whitaker said by email on Thursday. “However, many other types of mobility, both long-distance and local, decline. The sum of all these moves shows that, in general, fewer people move in the first year of the pandemic. Translate.”

In update his research, Whitaker finds that some outflows from high-cost metro areas continue through Q2 2021, bringing people to nearby small metro areas and fast-growing destinations like Las Vegas and Nashville. But at the same time, people started returning to the major metro areas, although not enough to replace those who had left.

It’s possible the pandemic has accelerated, says Whitaker the long-standing trend of aging among Millennials and Generation Z members with families looking to buy their first home, leading to an increased “outflow”.

“I think it’s only a matter of time before the cash flows continue to catch up with the accelerated cash flows we’ve seen this year,” Whitaker said in a recent interview with CNN Business.

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