The NDP says it’s 10 seats away from toppling Doug Ford. Does the math add up?

Ontario’s New Democrats are charting a path to forming a minority government with Liberal and Green Party backing in a strategy less geared toward winning a majority government than rejecting PCs. Doug Ford for a second term, party insiders said.

Sources within the Ontario NDP told Global News that the party is targeting at least 10 additional seats to put the New Democratic Party within striking distance of forming a minority government alongside the following Ontario Liberal Party. June election.

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“So the math for us is… we re-elect 40 (incumbent candidates) and we have 10 seats near here where we have about 5% of the Conservatives last time around,” said one. NDP sources said.

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“So if we can convert those and get those from Mr. Ford, that would take us to 50.”

NDP leader Andrea Horwath made the same calculation on Monday following the leadership debate.

“We have 40 (incumbents) involved,” Horwath reminded reporters. “We only have 10 seats, or only 10 seats left to beat Doug Ford right now.”

“Voters who don’t want to see Doug Ford back as prime minister…. That’s what I’m asking them to think about,” Horwath stressed, in what could become the party’s main pitch for voters in the final weeks of the election campaign.

Click to play video: 'Ontario election: Del Duca says PC leadership against 2018 election again, Ford says Liberals 'destroyed this province'

Ontario election: Del Duca says PC leadership against 2018 election again, Ford says Liberals ‘destroyed this province’

Ontario election: Del Duca says PC leadership against 2018 election again, Ford says Liberals ‘destroyed this province’

But the NDP’s precarious path to power depends on a number of factors outside Horwath and party control – most notably Steven Del Duca’s Liberal Party having a slight resurgence following the 2018 election, prompting the party fell from majority government to just seven seats.

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It also relies on the Liberal Party’s recovery taking more seats from Ford’s PC than the NDP.

Del Duca did not echo the NDP’s seat calculation, but neither did he refute the opinion made by Horwath.

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“If you are a progressive voter in this province, you want to see results. You’re not too focused on who’s going to deliver results, you just want to know that good things are going to happen to you and your family,” Del Duca said Monday.

“When you look at my plan and you look at Andrea Horwath’s plan, I think we have some things in common, for example, the repeal of Proposition 124, the repeal of Highway 413.”

All three opposition parties have said they do not want to support the minority Ford government, but leave the door open for a potential coalition government.

However, the NDP math only gets a majority if they take into account the extra 13 seats from the Liberals and Greens in Ontario combined to bring the parties to the magic number of 63 – the majority of the 124 seats captured in the House of Commons. Ontario Legislature.

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NDP insiders have produced a list where the party ranks second close to the Radical Conservatives in the 2018 election, suggesting the party will target those seats with additional funding and volunteers to make sure they bring voters to the polls on election day.

Ride a horse MPP margin Margin %
Ottawa West — Nepal Jeremy Roberts (PC) 175 0.3%
Brantford — Brant Will Bouma (PC) 635 1.1%
Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu (PC) 490 1.3%
Sault Ste. Marie Ross Romano (PC) 414 1.3%
Kitchener — Conestoga Mike Harris Jr. (PC) 686 1.6%
Kitchener South — Hespeler Amy Fee (PC) 770 1.8%
Scarborough — Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam (PC) 963 2.3%
Peterborough — Kawartha Dave Smith (PC) 2.386 3.9%
Cambridge Belinda Karahalios (New Blue) 2.154 4.5%
Scarborough Center Christina Mitas (PC) 2.019 5.1%

While the parties share a similar vision of unmasking a sitting prime minister, questions about a joint effort to lobby against Ford have been met with lukewarm responses from both Horwath and Del Duca.

Horwath dismissed her progressive opponent as “not ready to form a government” – an attack on Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau during the 2015 federal election – while Del Duca warned the NDP of potential threats. their campaign tactics.

“Multiple sclerosis. Horwath spent more time attacking Ontario Liberals than bringing the fight where it belongs, and that was with the Ford Conservatives,” Del Duca said Monday.

The NDP’s math is also based on the party’s ability to retain all 40 seats it won in the last election, despite aggressive push from the Radical Conservatives to oust the New Democrats into the PC column. .

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Ontario Budget 2022: Bethlenfalvy outlines investments in Hwy 413, other projects – April 28, 2022

Ford has played a big role in Brampton and Windsor, two traditional strongholds of the NDP, with massive planned spending announcements, including the construction of new electric vehicle factories, hospitals and Highway 413. — which Ford attempted to turn into a campaign-related issue.

During Tuesday night’s debate, Ford also supported endorsements from many labor groups – including LiUNA – that might traditionally lean more towards the New Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, several Toronto-area companies, which broke away from the Liberals in the last election, are also at risk of returning to the Grits if the party regains its footing under Del Duca.

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However, Horwath is counting on the convergence of the progressive vote behind the NDP for the remainder of the election campaign – making a direct appeal to the roughly 60% of voters who are not planning on the Conservative Party. Progressives on June 2.

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“We are your best shot at getting rid of Doug Ford,” Horwath declared.

According to a Abacus Data Poll released on Monday, Ford’s PCs have maintained their lead over the Ontario Liberals, with the NDP coming in at third. Abacus’ numbers, taken from a survey of 1,000 Ontario voters between May 12 and 15, show the PC with 35 percent support among pledged eligible voters, with the Liberals at 28% and the NDP at 24%.

But the Abacus poll – considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 – shows that the NDP will find it difficult to keep up with metro Toronto’s lead in the 2018 election.

Abacus puts Liberal support at 41% in the city, followed by 32% for the Tories and 21% for Horwath’s New Democrats.

Those numbers were drawn ahead of Monday night’s debate, and it’s not yet known whether performances by Horwath, Del Duca or Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner impacted the needle.

© 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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