The next big wave of patent cliffs ahead; Expectations for biopharmaceutical M&A to increase (NYSE:ABBV)
With a significant number of blockbuster drugs at risk of losing their market monopoly over the next 5 years, major pharmaceutical players are expected to increase trading and market consolidation in the short and medium term, researcher and credit rating, Fitch Solution projects.
The report comes as drugmakers are bracing for a massive wave of patent loss of monopoly (LOE) in 2025-2030, which could usher in the flood of drugs for the first time. biosimilars and cheap generics against some of the leading pharmaceutical brands in the US and EU.
We hope that generic drug companies will not waste time bringing competitors’ generic and biosimilar drugs to market.
Fitch predicts an unprecedented wave of biosimilars in the US and EU amid growing demand for cheaper pharmaceuticals and amid supportive regulation.
Last week, the US Health Secretary authorized the trial of a payment model designed to limit out-of-pocket costs for certain generic drugs to a maximum of $2 per month. drugs for Medicare recipients.
According to industry observers, even the leading drugmakers have yet to determine their plans to cover an estimated loss of >200 billion USD between 2022 and 2030, as some drugs sell The best running is expected to expire copyright registration.
The patent cliff is ahead for pharmaceutical majors like AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Novartis (NVS) (OTCPK:NVSEF), Merck (NYSE:A), Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) from 2023 to 2028.
At the end of January, AbbVie (ABBV) faced the first of ten disqualifications from entering the market this year against the rheumatoid arthritis treatment Humira in the United States as Amgen (AMGN) show Amjevita is its biological analogue.
However, after navigating key LOEs in 2020, Roche (OTCQX:RHHBF) (OTCQX:RHHBF) are largely immune to biosimilar threats, as is Sanofi (SNY), has the asthma medication Dupixent, marketed with Regeneron (REGISTER) is patented in the United States until 2031.
“Pharmaceutical companies often turn to M&A when they are faced with a patent cliff and this is something we have seen before in previous patent cliffs, such as the cliff edge,” Fitch writes. from 2011 to 2015”.
That wave of LOEs saw the biopharma industry have to M&A to offset the revenue impact from general competition with blockbuster small molecule brands. such as Plavix from Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) and Lipitor from Pfizer (PFE), currently marketed by the Viatris spinoff (VTR).
Fitch points out Pfizer’s (PFE) focus on pre-LOE 2022 trading for key revenue generators, such as oral JAK inhibitor Xeljanz and breast cancer drug Ibrance scheduled for 2025 and 2027, respectively.
Last year, the New York-based pharmaceutical giant spent ~$12 billion acquiring migraine maker Biohaven Pharmaceuticals and closed a ~$5 billion deal to acquire the home. development of drugs to treat sickle cell disease. Global blood therapy.
Meanwhile, AbbVie (ABBV) is lifting its self-imposed $2 billion limit on transactions and preparing newer drugs to offset impact of Humira LOE.
Pfizer (PFE) can afford to make deals of this magnitude given the firepower generated by its COVID franchise, but “other companies holding less cash may have a hard time using M&A as a protection technique in the near future five,” Fitch debate.
However, patent holders are expected to deploy a number of other tactics to protect the territory, including settlements to delay the release of copies and clinical studies to introduce new products. greening techniques, such as new dosage forms.
See LOE 2028 for the US blockbuster Keytruda cancer therapy, Merck (A) is said to be developing easier-to-use formulas to replace the intravenous version.
Looking for Alpha Contributors who have different views on how effective major pharmaceutical companies are upcoming big LOEs. SA Author Vera Glebova chooses AbbVie (ABBV) before Merck (A) even if they both face significant patents cliffs in the years to come.