Business

The Second Age of Platform Technology

The world is in constant turmoil. A pandemic has killed millions. A war is going on in Europe. In many countries, there are deep political divisions and public unrest. The global economy is facing stalled growth and there is a widespread sense of anger.

An observer could have recorded these observations of the state of the world as early as this spring — or nearly a century ago. And that is no coincidence. The root cause of all current disruption is very similar to that of the convulsions that occurred in the early 20th century: a rare and powerful 30-year burst of fundamental innovation. foundation, change lives.

That’s both good news and bad news. Opportunities to reinvent the world and develop innovations over the next decade will be abundant, but there will also be chaos and crisis.

About six years ago, I co-authored a book called Not rated yet. Its premise is based on the historical arc of innovation over the past 130 years.

From 1890 to 1920, the world experienced an unprecedented wave of technological innovation. During those 30 years, the United States saw the electrification of much of the country, the popularity of Alexander Graham Bell’s telephone, the first radio broadcasts, the brothers’ first powered flight. the Wright house, and with the Ford Model T, the emergence of the mass-market automobile. These are all foundational technologies. That is, they didn’t do just one thing; they have opened the way for all modes of innovation and change. For example, electricity, transportation and communications allow factories to scale and mass produce, making everything from food to furniture cheaper and more abundant.

In every way, life changed dramatically from 1890 to 1920. So many changes were for the better, lifting millions out of poverty, liberating people from agricultural labor, increasing goods. decades of life and generally makes life easier. But they also exacerbate the gulf between rich and poor, between management and labor, and between people with fundamentally different views on how to organize society. Geopolitical power shifts from Europe to America. Cultural change (flappers! Jazz! Women’s suffrage! Prohibition!) has blown through society.

All were driven by the emerging technologies of the day, and such enormous change has unsettled the world. As we wrote in Not rated yet: “Not to be alarmed, but in the early 1900s – the last time technology completely transformed the economy and lives – the shocks followed by two world wars, a recession globalization and the rise of a liberal Western-led world order. “

The remaining decades of the 20th century certainly saw plenty of technological innovations, but they were never as gathering, intense or profound as they were in that 1890-1920 period.

Then, in 2007, Apple introduced its iPhone – in a way, the Model T of the 21st century. And now, most of the world’s population has a remarkably powerful computer in their pocket. . (There are 7 billion smartphone used worldwide.) Additionally, in 2007, Amazon rolled out Amazon Web Services and cloud computing came into full play, allowing anyone to access software, services, and content anywhere anywhere, any time. Social networks became ubiquitous, fundamentally changing the nature of communities and communication. (Facebook was founded in 2004; Twitter in 2006.)

We are being overwhelmed by a tsunami of new platform technology. Artificial intelligence (AI) is enabling computer systems to learn and solve problems that humans cannot. CRISPR allows scientists to edit genes and program DNA. Blockchain has brought new ways of thinking about money, contracts, and identities. The list of paradigm-changing innovations continues, including 3D printing, virtual reality, super islands, and civil spaceflight.

When such a wave arrives, it doesn’t just change one or two behaviours. It changes everything. Economist Carlota Perez described the impact of such moments in her influential 2003 book Technological revolution and financial capital: “When a technological revolution bursts into the scene, it does not just add some dynamic new industries to the previous production structure. It provides the means to modernize all existing industries and activities. “

Leave the sink for a few minutes. We are in the process of “modernizing all existing industries and operations”.

That means huge, difficult, social overhaul. We see it all around us. Part of society is racing against cryptocurrency, social media, AI, etc — while others fight to keep to the lifestyle they’ve always known. So divisions are growing in society and politics, between rich and poor, and rising and falling nations. That led to civil unrest and, yes, war. Many analysts believe that Vladimir Putin launched Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to try to regain the geopolitical power of the former Soviet Union in the context of the rapidly changing world.

Opportunities to reinvent the world and develop innovations over the next decade will be abundant, but there will also be chaos and crisis.

According to Perez’s plan, today we are in the “installation phase” of these technologies, “in which the critical mass of the industries and infrastructure of the revolution are introduced. against the resistance of the established pattern.” If you want to see “the resistance of the established model,” look at the anti-scientific, anti-globalization political response of the past six years.

If the past is just the beginning, we are already halfway through the 30-year cycle of the technological revolution. As AI, cryptocurrencies, gene editing, and other technologies evolve and accelerate changes, it is likely that they will continue to rip apart economic and social norms as well as geographic maps. politics. In other words, prepare yourself for the many kinds of turmoil we’re experiencing right now.

However, it is difficult to envision all the opportunities these underlying technologies are creating. We can reinvent every industry and everything about the way we live. The next decade could see the emergence of affordable, universal clean energy and artificial intelligence-based technologies that help reverse climate change. We can edit our genes so that we can live to 100 years old with a 30 year old body. We can see a complete reorganization of states that ensures peace and elevates poorer countries. We can hang around in flying cars, spend a lot of our time on bullet trains and vacation in space hotels. We will do a lot of things that are beyond our conception today.

Sometime within the next 15 years, this revolution will make a turning point and move into a phase that “finally leads to a ‘different way of life'”, as Perez put it. It was the last place we went after World War II. For the next 70 years, the Western world was relatively peaceful, creating a modern life beyond imagination for anyone alive in 1890 — a life with cars, TVs, supermarkets, care Advanced healthcare, jet travel, computers, professional sports and skyscrapers.

The key will be to get through the next 15 years intact — without the world wars and deep recession that extend beyond the last wave. To do that, business leaders and entrepreneurs must understand that technology-driven change is far beyond what most people can absorb. Companies will need to think about the potential impact and consequences of the products they build (which may mean asking yourself: what if this succeeds beyond wild dreams? our best?) and working harder than ever to give back to society instead of trying to “break” anything. Instead of fighting regulations, they will need to work alongside policymakers to establish barriers that prevent technologies — facial recognition and gene editing, for example — from going too far and over-sized. violent reaction.

At the same time, however, innovators have a generational opportunity to reinvent industries and everyday life in beneficial ways. If the next decade and a half goes well, there’s a good chance we’ll come out on the other end with a much better way of life than anyone who’s ever been through the dark ages before the iPhone and the cloud. imagine.

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