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What will an Ontario by-election tell us about Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre?

Three months ago, Pierre Poilievre proved he was the populist fighter the Conservatives wanted in the next federal election, winning a landslide victory in the party leadership race.

But how far is he fighting to win the country’s first voter voice during his term?

On Monday, people living in the Greater Toronto Area of ​​Mississauga-Lakeshore will be able to vote in the federal by-election resigned by former Liberal MP Sven Spengemann.

Despite saying it was time for a change, the federal Conservatives were quick to downplay expectations for the campaign — and any suggestion that its results reflect the board’s leadership. Poilievre’s head, or his message to the people of Canada.

However, they cite low expected turnout, with just two weeks to go until Christmas. Poilievre was also busy with staffing the party and his office on Parliament Hill. And the Liberals have taken control of the past three elections, although Stephen Harper’s Conservatives won in 2011.

But the biggest hurdle many overlook is the opponent the Conservative Party is up against. It was former Ontario finance minister Charles Sousa, who represented an equestrian Mississauga for the provincial Liberal Party until its defeat in 2018. The Tories nominated Ron Chhinzer, a local police officer whose history is significantly lower.

Even Poilievre himself humbled himself. A scan of his social media channels on Friday found no mention of the by-election or evidence of his presence in horseback riding, although some members of Congress did. visit.

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre poses a question during question time in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Wednesday, December 7, 2022. CANADIAN REPORT / Sean Kilpatrick

Poilievre’s office did not respond to a question about whether he plans to campaign with Chhinzer. Since Friday, Poilievre has been in Atlantic Canada.

Conservative political strategist Shakir Chambers said a victory for Chhinzer would be a clear incentive for Poilievre in an area the Tories want to find success. But if it went the other way, he said, one takeaway could be a lesson in how to deliver Poilievre’s message.

“When you look at 905, the Mississauga area and the Brampton area, a lot of them could go at any time,” he said.

“It’s very important that people realize what Pierre is talking about, his stance on certain issues, and not belittle the fact that he’s a household name because he has a lot of momentum in it. leadership race.”

In the 2021 federal election, the Conservatives lost with less than 4,000 votes. Erin O’Toole has targeted it and other Toronto-area horse races by preaching a moderate conservative message – but it’s unpopular with both potential new voters and party loyalists .

Gaining leadership with more support than the previous two leaders of the party, Poilievre enjoyed a much more unified caucus. But he has avoided spreading his message in the usual way, rarely speaking to the national media.

Instead, he relies heavily on social media.

He has also chosen to give interviews to smaller agencies, such as local radio stations and media that serve members of the country’s immigrant and racist communities in and around the country. around Toronto and Vancouver – demographic Conservatives know they have to win if they want to establish the next generation. government.

Overall, it’s an unprecedented practice, Chambers says, and he questions whether it’s appropriate for a national audience. “Is this an effective strategy in a general capacity category? Or is it only good when you talk to the (party) base?”

Philippe Fournier of 338Canada, a statistical model of election forecasting based on polls, demographics and election history, said Poilievre appeared to be “preaching to converts” with his approach near there.

“The Conservatives, if they want to win – not two or three points against the Liberals, but two or three points against the Liberals in the suburbs or in urban Canada,” he said. . “And so far, we’ve seen no indication that’s the case.”

Ginny Roth, Poilievre’s communications director during the leadership campaign, defended the strategy, saying the leader is not “dogmatic” about who he talks to. She pointed to the fact that he recently answered questions about inflation outside the House of Commons – although his appearances in front of congressional reporters have so far been rare.

Poilievre received mixed reviews on the issues he chose to highlight in his early days in office and on the eve of the first federal election of his term.

One major theme is inflation, a theme common to all opposition parties as the country sees record-high inflation and growing economic worries. Poilievre is a financier who has been a longtime finance critic for the party.

He has also spoken out about crime and has spoken out against the Liberal Party’s gun laws that aim to permanently ban certain types of firearms.

In November, Poilievre expanded his message by stating that “everything feels broken”, releasing a five-minute video filmed in front of a homeless encampment in Vancouver. In the ad, Poilievre said the policy of providing toxic drug users with a safe supply of opioids was a “failed experiment.”

The controversial stance was quickly condemned by drug policy experts and Liberal MPs, who said it was unscientific and even dangerous amid the growing overdose crisis. taking place in Canada.

Roth cautioned that Poilievre’s message should not be dismissed, saying that his political talent is being able to connect with Canadians and voice their true feelings on issues.

And longtime conservative Fraser Macdonald said some of Poilievre’s rhetoric was a welcome shift away from grievances related to the pandemic.

Macdonald, who worked on distant runner-up Jean Charest’s campaign, said: “I’m certainly glad to hear less about issues like vaccines and some of the minor issues of the COVID era.” .

“Having just been sucked in by them in the leadership race, I’m totally ready to give them a very long runway.”

Although Poilievre has avoided mentioning Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s controversial sovereignty bill, he has maintained his support for the “Liberty Convoy” protesters, who have organized a weeklong demonstration in downtown Ottawa last winter to protest against COVID-19 restrictions, with them parking their cars. Trucks block the streets around Par Hill Hill.

He recently qualified that support by telling The Andrew Lawton Show that “my preference is that they should walk and park their truck off site.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on December 10, 2022.



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