At the heart of these negotiations is one question: who is responsible for climate change? The problem is complex, but some data on current and past emissions could begin to answer it.
Greenhouse gas emissions hit all-time high in 2021, with global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels over 36 billion tons. China is currently the largest emitter, followed by the US. Combined emissions from the European Union are the next largest, followed by India and Russia.
However, current emissions data do not tell the whole story about climate responsibility. “Countries are very unequal in the extent to which they have caused climate change,” says Taryn Fransena senior fellow in the global climate program at the World Resources Institute, a nonprofit research organization.
Climate change is the result of the total concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. And carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas that leads to climate change, stays in the atmosphere for hundreds of years.
So the researchers also looked at historical emissions: a country’s total contribution over time. The United States is by far the largest emitter in history, responsible for more than 20% of total emissions, and the EU follows closely behind. China drops to third place when climate pollution is calculated this way, with about half of the total US contribution.
The long history of fossil fuel use by the US and the EU is what makes these regions the focus of discussions about loss and damage, especially since the burning of fossil fuels has helped they develop. “Economics that have been strong for many years tend to be strong because they benefit from those early greenhouse gas emissions,” says Fransen. It is clear that the wealthiest countries in the world have and continue to have an overwhelming impact on climate, she said.
Future Responsibilities
Total emissions can help inform decisions about who pays what for climate damage. But addressing climate pollution in developing nations with a history of low emissions but rapidly increasing will also be key to slowing global warming. “We cannot solve climate change without China and India and every other major emitter country dramatically reducing their emissions,” Fransen said. Some countries may need more time to reach net zerobut eventually they will need to get there to meet the global climate goals.
