Health

Why 2022 is the year we learn to live with COVID-19


Hope to remove COVID-19 In the US, the herd immunity created by vaccines has now been destroyed. Instead, with the rapid spread of Omicron variant, we need to focus on 2022 as the year in which in the United States will open a new era of “living with the virus”. ”

In epidemiological terms, this means the transition from pandemic to endemic, when the virus moves from a stage of widespread destruction to localized outbreaks of intermittent and long-term coexistence with a host of people. SARS-CoV-2 will still pose a threat to vulnerable and unvaccinated Americans, but experts believe it will no longer represent a great danger to public health the Who is immune? through vaccination or natural infection. Massive natural immunity in the United States came at the cost of 800,000 people died and an important trace of Long COVID Disability and massive economic, mental health and educational losses. With Omicron, this number is set to rise even further, but given the projections that the infection is nearly universal among the unvaccinated, its health impact will be diminished.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

Whether close to the common cold, the flu, or the number of motor vehicle accidents, by 2022, COVID-19 will become a familiar risk to individuals and society but no longer a causative agent. disrupt the daily life of families and communities. Although this will happen as an uneven and bumpy ride, there is an expectation of an eventual event. back to the norm after the pandemicl.

Why and how will we adapt to this new endemic reality the way we live, work, travel, attend school, congregate and enjoy life in 2022? Especially as Omicron is now triggering a reversal back to the early days of the pandemic, where avoiding infection at all costs is taking over a large section of society.

Forecasting COVID-19 is an endearing endeavor. The complex multidisciplinary science must be united with a multitude of social, psychological, political and cultural forces. Information evolves, uncertainty, and controversy necessitate constant testing and re-evaluation of forecasts.

Here are four predictions for why and how we will go a long way to living with the virus by 2022:

1) The burden of COVID-19 disease will decrease

Disease burden — medically known as “virulence” — is defined as serious illness requiring hospitalization and causing death. It has Not means cases or infections, just a snapshot of how much virus is circulating in a community. Omicron is a more infectious but less virulent variant than its Delta predecessor. As it quickly spreads through the remaining susceptible Americans, it could cause a spike in local hospitalizations. But it shouldn’t cause systematic spread Hospital capacity is overloaded in most geographic areas of the United States with high vaccine content and natural immunity and where vulnerable populations are protected.

As with any virus that causes asymptomatic infection or mild illness, in the future it will become increasingly recognized that cases — as identified by positive tests — will generally not serve as a useful yardstick against which to base decisions. on public health.

The level of individual and population immunity to protect against critical illness is dynamic and decreases over time and geographically. Currently, 205 million Americans are fully immunized. The CDC has recorded 53 million positive COVID tests to date, and it is estimated that 150 million Americans have been infected. Many of these two groups overlap to an unknown degree, but it is likely that more than 80% of the 330 million Americans have at least some immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Given the widespread availability of boosters and a highly transmissible variant, we can expect population effective immunity to increase from already high levels by 2022.

Whether by intentional (vaccination) or by default (infection), the population susceptible to the virus is decreasing. More interesting variants may emerge, but evolutionary biology and pandemic history forewarned that these will be more infectious and less virulent. Vaccine technology has evolved to address this situation and can New vaccine production more specificity faster than ever before.

2) The protection of the elderly and immunocompromised needs more attention and resources

Of the more than 800,000 US COVID-19 deaths recorded to date, about 75% have been in people over the age of 65. CDC data revealed that compared with 18-29 year olds (of whom 4,781 died), people aged 65 to 85+ had 5-10 times higher hospitalization rates and 65 higher mortality rates. -370 times. About twenty percent of the U.S. population is over the age of 65 or immunocompromised who need to avoid infection. Using known precautions, especially in crowded facilities and multigenerational households, remains extremely important. Impact of boosters, new mouth antiviral drugs, and a quick check of contacts for infection would be particularly beneficial in saving this group’s lives.

3) Expect political polarization to continue, but paradoxically the real social risk behavior will converge and normalize

Attitudes towards mask wearing, vaccinations, duties, and most forms of exposure prevention are based on deeply personal values ​​and beliefs. It is unlikely that there will be significant changes in these attitudes regardless of the course of the pandemic or public policy. Political polarization is as vivid in COVID as it is in other aspects of contemporary American life. However, we all rub our shoulders daily at work, airplanes, stadiums, and restaurants. Through these countless interactions, we will indirectly influence each other as public life continues to normalize and begin. Over time, public behavior and exposure risk tolerance can converge.

4) Acknowledge that “living with the virus” means living with cases and infections

Most importantly, the meaning of the goal of “stay safe” from COVID has never been clearly defined at the individual or federal policy level. In experience, for many people that means avoiding infection at all costs, with safety signs being boosters, masks, rapid checks, virtual work and school, avoiding traffic. public transport and virtually any potential exposure. For others, it’s akin to business as usual; For them, exposure to infection is an acceptable risk. This broad definition of safety will begin to narrow and accelerate towards convergence in 2022 and is an important driver of a return to a strongly dynamic society.

It will do so because with Omicron and its successors, we can expect an unavoidable high rate of infections in the non-vulnerable 80% of the population, no matter what. vaccinated or not. However, this group of 260 million people can return to a near-normal life and still have a very objectively low risk of serious illness. The urgency to get on with life, and the inevitable weariness of the pandemic, will slowly but surely change the national psyche. The steady drumbeat of cases will force us to gradually shift our focus (as the NFL and NCAA will demonstrate) from strict avoidance to living with the risk of infection, to tolerating what is to come. very low risk of serious illness. For comparison, flu and pneumonia is estimated to cause about 50,000 deaths and several hundred thousand hospitalizations each year. This happens in the same ballpark as possible damage from the endemic phase of COVID. Can we translate our risky behavior into a comparable response?

In fact, by the end of 2022, these forces will converge in increasing social risk-taking and related behaviors. Workplaces, schools, retail establishments, airports, stadiums and borders will be open for business. We will realize that our way out of the pandemic is not through managing the virus, but by challenging ourselves to live by its rules.



Source link

news7h

News7h: Update the world's latest breaking news online of the day, breaking news, politics, society today, international mainstream news .Updated news 24/7: Entertainment, Sports...at the World everyday world. Hot news, images, video clips that are updated quickly and reliably

Related Articles

Check Also
Close
Back to top button