BILLIONyears became a global pandemic whose original cause is still the same topic of debateReuters, on March 11, published a particularly jarring story: The World Health Organization, according to the news agency, had advised Ukraine to eliminate any high-threat pathogens it had in its system. their biology, to reduce (and ideally eliminate) the risks, is Russian Army Attack those bases, pathogens will get out and spread disease to the population.
The risk of such a disaster – through some terrible accident, or by nefarious design – is real, but fortunately, not as big of a threat as one might think. First, Ukraine does not have a single Biosafety Level (BSL) 4 within its borders — these are the highest-security laboratories, authorized to store the most dangerous pathogens ( as the last remaining samples of smallpox in the world). In addition, many pathogens stored in lower BSL laboratories are vulnerable to heat and sunlight, which means they are unlikely to spread widely if they escape those facilities — where there are safeguards in place to prevent that from happening.
The risk that the chaos of the war would release pathogens from Ukraine’s laboratories is “extremely unlikely. But, in theory, it’s a possibility,” says Filippa Lentzos, co-director of the Center for Science and Security Studies at King’s College London. Even in peacetime, accidents at laboratories around the world make people sicker more common than one would hope; just this December, a laboratory worker in Taiwan was diagnosed with the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, which was derived from the bite of an infected laboratory mouse. Lab leaks threaten even more dire consequences; Gregory Lewis, acting leader of the Biosafety Research Group at the University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute, points out, the last known death from smallpox, in 1978, was due to a laboratory leak in UK. “Globally, we are not good enough. Lewis said.
In 2020, the head of Ihor Kuzin, then the state sanitary doctor of Ukraine, told Ukrainian TV network TSN the country has only two Biosafety level 3 laboratories. Such laboratories, while not posing the greatest security risk, are still designed to house pathogens that can be transmitted through the air and can cause deadly infections. However, wartime conditions can affect those security measures. If someone is infected, accidentally or otherwise, wartime conditions can be more difficult to treat for those who have been exposed and contained, said Hayley Severance, vice president of global biological policy and programs. disease, such as affecting access to medication. in Nuclear Threat Initiativea security nonprofit dedicated to reducing nuclear and biological threats around the globe.
However, Severance and Lentzos explain that there are several factors that reduce the risk to Ukraine’s biosearch infrastructure. For example, in lower-security labs — most in Ukraine — scientists often disable pathogens to test them, Severance said. And in the safer BSL 3 labs, pathogens face additional obstacles that keep them from getting out; according to the standards of the World Health Organization, equipped laboratory with various features to keep pathogens safe, including self-closing, interlocking doors; Sealed windows, and decontamination equipment such as incinerators. Lentzos says it has multi-layered protections in place, so some will stay in place if others fail.
In addition, it is unlikely that the Russian government would steal pathogens from a lab to infect others, Severance said. First of all, because Russia has a similar ecosystem to Ukraine, its own laboratories may already have any pathogens that can be found in the Ukrainian laboratory. Indeed, Russia is one of the few countries with a BSL 4 laboratory. Second, biological attacks are uncommon, as pathogens tend to be “difficult to spread” and “very unpredictable.” , Lentzos said. Compared to conventional weapons, pathogens are much more difficult to control – meaning that it is very difficult to prevent them from harming their own troops. “It’s easier to make something very nasty in a test tube, but it’s actually a bit harder to actually use it in combat,” Lewis said.
Furthermore, it is also unlikely that locals will stumble into laboratories to find medical supplies; As Lentzos points out, such labs don’t store drugs, and it’s hard to mistake a lab filled with mysterious flasks, test tubes, and liquid solutions for a pharmacy. Also, actually getting a disease out of a test tube (accidentally or otherwise) and spreading it to others is harder than you think, unless you happen to have a biologist on hand. “What the hell are you going to do with it? Will you infect yourself and then try to infect others? Would you throw it at people? Will you defrost it? ‘ said Lentzos.
All that said, it is still possible for Russia to turn biolabs into a tool of vulnerability for the Ukrainian public – by turning the potential for pathogens to be released into a weapon of disinformation and confusion. general public.
Indeed, Russia has begun Spreading false information on biological weapons in Ukraine. Earlier this month, for example, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that Ukraine was operating in secret biological weapons program believed to be controlled by the US military; soon after, experts – including some Russian scientists – responded, saying that there wasn’t any evidence to support those allegations. Severance said Ukraine has been transparent about the work at its facilities and has participated in international efforts such as the Joint Threat Reduction Program, which the US created to assist former Soviet states eliminate unique weapons programs and regularly collaborate with scientists from other countries.
Such propaganda suggests that, if Russia took over Ukraine’s biological search laboratories, it could provide Moscow with more fuel to further misinformation, which the Putin regime could use in an attempt to justify war on Russian citizens; sabotage international organizations, such as the United Nations, that investigate claims of biological weapons programs; and often creates more mistrust and uncertainty.
Furthermore, by spreading rumors about biological weapons, and thus creating a false narrative to justify Russia’s use of such destructive tools, Russian propaganda could undermine the longstanding international consensus that biological weapons are inhumane and unacceptable. Going forward, Severance believes the world should do more to make it harder to make false claims about biological weapons programs. Although Ukraine is a party to the Biological Weapons Convention, the disarmament treaty does not have a verification process that could, in theory, help prove that Russia’s accusations are baseless. As it stands, Severance says that Russian propaganda is “eroding established standards of battle and victory against the use of biological weapons. It just really creates a dangerous environment.”
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