There is no one on Earth hotter than Albert Pujols right now. In his last 10 games, Pujols is winning 1,258. It was the second-highest mark of his career after any roughly 10 games, beaten only by his slip rate between August 6 and August 21 of this year: 1,259. Basically, at 42 years old. The Machine is arguably having the best hitting period of his career. Since the beginning of August, Pujols leads all the big players with at least 40 appearances in the league slip rate… Over 300 points – 1,083 for Pujols; .779 for second place Paul Goldschmidt. He also leads the MLB in terms of base percentage, batting average, weighted runs added, isolation strength, and he’s tied for the league lead in home games during that period. The last number is the most important. With only 41 games left in the regular season, Pujols needs seven more to become the fourth member of the 700 club. What are the odds he gets there?
Well, at his current pace, he should get there before the end of September, but that’s not realistic. To appropriately determine where the Pujols will end the season on the all-time home run, we need to consider a number of factors.
- Chances are the Cardinals will face a left-handed throw down the stretch. This year, against right-handed pitchers, Pujols only missed 600. That was horrible. Against Southpaws, Pujols is sliding 1,242, 232 points higher than Aaron Judge who is sliding with his left hand. So if Pujols is going to hit 700 dong, the first thing we should look at is a huge amount on the starting price list. Sure, Pujols can still hit left handed late in the game, but those bats will be too far and very few in the middle.
- Pujols has only played in about 60% of Cardinals games this season. I’ll try to look at every possibility of his prominence in the squad in these final 41 games, but the main highlight will be how soon the Cardinals win a playoff spot and divisional title. If they had nothing to play with other than seeding the playoffs, I would imagine the Cardinals would give Pujols every chance they could give him to hit his big milestone. If they don’t land a playoff spot soon, they’ll likely push aside the Pujols’ home chase to switch to playing who will help them win.
- Regression run at home. Sure, at his current pace, Pujols will hit 700 even if he only shows one plate per game. The more likely scenario is that Pujols begins to return to Earth more than where he was earlier in the season. That said, if Pujols gets a string of lefties in line and is given a huge amount of chances at goal, he could still hit 700 even if his home stroke score drops. .
Today, the Cardinals continued their five-game streak against the Chicago Cubs with a brace. Based on mlb.com, three of the Cubs’ four pitchers are rightists (Javier Assad, Adrian Sampson and Marcus Stroman). Tomorrow’s start date hasn’t been determined yet, but it seems just like Luke Farrell will be nodded. With Pujols’ hot stick, the Cards probably won’t worry about his right wing split unless the team starts to lose. After all, the Pujols started at DH for the first match of the doubles shooter today. That said, I doubt he will start all four games. He could get more chances at the end of games he doesn’t start if leftist drops are included, but I don’t think we can assume the Pujols will beat any of them. of this series. At most one.
Even in his incredible August, he has yet to hit a single throw from a right-handed pitcher. Currently, the Cubs have three left-wingers – Brandon Hughes, Sean Newcomb and Steven Brault – and recently Hughes has been working as an even more recent team. However, it’s unlikely that Pujols will face a leftist multiple times in any game throughout this series.
After the Cubs, it will be the Braves. They have a great bullpen and will be trotting out three righties for their upcoming series (Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, and Jake Odorizzi). In 33 career against Morton, Pujols had only eight hits and no home games. Can’t count on anything coming out of that game. He had 11 goals against Odorizzi. Pujols is 0 for 10. Can’t expect anything there. He never faced Spencer Strider.
At that point, we’re a sixth of the way through the remainder of the season for St. Louis, and he added a zero to his name. The Cardinals have nine games left this season against the Pirates, eight against the Reds and seven against the Cubs. I discussed how the Pujols won’t stand much of a chance against the left in the face of the Cubs.
Against the Reds, he will likely face Mike Minor and Nick Lodolo multiple times. That would be Pujols’ best chance for a spot. The Minors are giving up a staggering 2.2 home runs per nine games of the season and Lodolo, despite being less likely to run at home this year, is more inclined to walk. . If several Cards can stand against Pujols in those games, Lodolo will have to challenge Pujols. You don’t want to do that.
Currently, the Pirates do not have a bias for their starting rotation. The team swapped their only left-handed starter, José Quintana, on the deadline and now only the right-handers of JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller, Zach Thompson, Bryse Wilson and Roansy Contreras remain. The Pirates had three lefties, but they only threw a total of 21.2 innings all season. Probably Dillon Peters will return from IL and throw the ball a bit against the Cardinals, but since the Pirates don’t have the qualification to run into the knockouts, it’s likely they won’t put Peters on the field as often in the final stretch, picking some younger. instead, all are rightists. That said, if Pujols manages to get a disadvantage against someone like Cam Vieaux, a few home runs is very likely.
NL Central is one of the tightest divisions in baseball. Only NL East and AL Central are tighter. Even so, at the time of this writing, the Cardinals have won 8 straight games and 9 of their last 10., while the Brewers led 5-5 in that same span. In my opinion, the Cardinals are the better team and should divide the winners and losers. Given that the Cardinals have a fairly easy schedule – just 13 games against teams over .500 – and just four games against Milwaukee (St. Louis currently has five games ahead), I think the Cardinals will finish the division title. sometime between September 21 and 28. Obviously, the sooner the better for the sake of the Pujols.
Let’s assume the best and say the Cardinals win their division on the 21st, in the middle of their series against the San Diego Padres. That would leave two games against the Padres, three games against the Dodgers, two games against the Brewers and six games against the Pirates. Six of the Pujols’ fourteen home games this year have faced those four teams. In fact, two of Pujols’ three multi-homer games this year went up against Brewers and Pirates – one of the hosts in Pirates was utility man Josh VanMeter; I doubt he will continue to pitch again.
If the Pujols hit the 700 mark, the final ten games of the season would probably be the best time to do so. Both Brewers and Dodgers are heavily staffed by Southpaws. Pujols played superbly in his final game against Brewers starter Aaron Ashby (two home runs), who should come back from IL before that series – although it is unknown when he will be scheduled to begin when he returns. Pujols has also been superb in his career against the likes of Taylor Rogers of Milwaukee as well as David Price of Los Angeles, Tyler Anderson, Clayton Kershaw, although Pujols never beat Kershaw or Anderson. Sadly, it may be too late by that point for the Pujols.
It is unlikely that the Pujols will hit 700 runs at home. If Pujols had better stats against right-handed pitchers this season, I would feel more confident saying the opposite, but as it stands, there is a line of administration waiting for the Reds. y that I cannot see Pujols penetrate. The Cardinals are vying for a divisional title, their first since 2019, and if they want to secure that title, they’ll have to realize that it’s as hot right now as Pujols, the DH position. that would be best served with someone other than Pujols filling the role. Keeping Pujols on the bench in case the opposition provides a dose of left-wing relief, but it means Pujols can only hit a game or two for Pujols in a few games. Pujols will have to continue her incredible tears, and at the age 42, I don’t see it lasting any longer.
As of Monday morning, Baseball Reference gave the Pujols a 7.1% chance of hitting 700 at the end of the season.
Even after his home game that night, those odds were right. Honestly, there isn’t enough policy and the Cardinals will probably pick someone better against the right until the team wins NL Central, and that may not be long. I wouldn’t be shocked if Pujols overtook Álex Rodríguez in all-time fourth, but 700 might be out of reach. Who knows? If he’s just short, he’ll probably decide to come back next year. That is always a possibility.