Japan’s scandal-hit ruling party chooses Shigeru Ishiba as the next Prime Minister

Japan’s ruling party has elected Shigeru Ishiba as its new leader, appointing the former Defense Minister as Japan’s next leader.

Nine candidates are running for leadership of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced last month that he would not seek re-election.

Since the LDP has a majority in parliament, the party’s leader will become prime minister and Ishiba is expected to be appointed to the role next week.

The changing of the guard comes at a tumultuous time for the party, which has been rocked by scandals and internal strife that have caused its once-powerful factions to splinter.

Ishiba, 67, leads in most opinion polls, in which this is his fifth and, according to him, his last attempt to lead the LDP, the party that has ruled Japan for much of the past year. large in the postwar period.

The winner is decided by an internal party vote, not a public one. The race begins with nine candidates before entering a second round between Ishiba and 63-year-old Sanae Takaichi, who is vying to become Japan’s first female leader.

Ishiba supported allowing female emperors – an issue hotly debated by many LDP members and successive governments. His outspoken candor and public criticism of Prime Minister Kishida – a rarity in Japanese politics – have made party members uncomfortable while resonating with members. of the public.

He is very knowledgeable about the party’s political intrigues as well as security policies. He offered a safe pair of hands and stability at a time of great change in the LDP.

What he doesn’t bring is a new face to an institution struggling to reinvent itself and regain public trust amid a sluggish economy, struggling households and a series of political scandals. His economic strategy includes raising wages to counter rising prices.

He said he reads three books a day and he prefers doing that to interacting with his party colleagues.

Takaichi, on the other hand, is one of two women vying for the LDP leadership position, but is also among the more conservative candidates.

A close ally of late prime minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi’s views on women’s issues are in line with the LDP’s policy of letting women take on their traditional roles as good mothers and wives.

She opposed laws allowing women to retain their maiden names as well as allowing female emperors.

Consistent among the front-runners, however, is a commitment to reforming the LDP – which has held power almost continuously since its formation in 1955 – in the face of public anger and falling approval ratings. strong.

“In the upcoming presidential election, it is necessary to show the people that the Liberal Democratic Party will change,” Kishida said at a press conference last month, announcing his decision not to run for another term. .

The LDP leadership race is not only a race for the highest office but also an attempt to regain the public trust that the party has been hemorrhaging over the past few months amid a stagnant economy and difficult households. and a series of political scandals.

Chief among these scandals are revelations regarding the level of influence that Japan’s controversial Unification Church holds in the LDP, as well as suspicions that factions within the party have reported lacking political funding for many years.

The fallout from the political sponsorship scandal has led to the breakup of five of the six factions within the LDP – factions that have long been the backbone of the party and whose support has often been crucial to won the LDP leadership election.

Perhaps more prominent in the Japanese public mind, however, are the country’s deepening economic woes.

In the wake of the Covid pandemic, average families in Japan have found it difficult to grapple with a weak yen, a stagnant economy and food prices that are rising at the fastest rate in nearly half a century.

Meanwhile, data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) shows that wages in Japan have barely changed over the past 30 years. That prolonged slump, coupled with the highest inflation in 30 years, is tightening the screws on Japanese households and prompting the government to call for help.

It also damages the LDP’s historic support position among voters.

“People are tired of the LDP,” Mieko Nakabayashi, a former opposition lawmaker and political science professor at Waseda University in Tokyo, told the BBC. “They are frustrated with the inflation they are facing now and the so-called ’30 lost years’. The Japanese currency is low, many imports have become expensive due to inflation and many people have seen that.”

Another key issue on the agenda is Japan’s shrinking and aging population, which is putting pressure on social and health services and posing a real challenge for medium and long-term labor force of the country. Whoever takes power of the LDP, and subsequently the government, will have to rethink how Japan operates its labor market and whether the country should change its attitude toward immigration.

It’s a much-needed recalibration ahead of Japan’s general election, scheduled for October 2025 – or sooner, as some candidates have pointed out. For example, Koizumi has said that he will call a general election immediately after the LDP contest.

The final two weeks of the LDP leadership campaign are seen by experts as an audition for the general election. For that reason, candidates presented themselves not only to party comrades but also to the public, trying to win the support of voters.

“The public is changing,” Kunihiko Miyake, a visiting professor at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto who has worked closely with both Abe and Kishida, told the BBC. “It is time for conservative politics in this country to adapt to the new political environment and political battlefield.”

The remaining seven candidates in the first round are Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, the youngest candidate; Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, 71, the remaining female candidate; Digital Transformation Minister Taro Kono, 61; Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63 years old; Toshimitsu Motegi, 68 years old, LDP general secretary; Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, former minister of economic security; and Katsunobu Kato, 68, former chief cabinet secretary.

Four of the nine have served as foreign ministers; three people serve as defense ministers.