Moldova’s vote on EU membership is still too close to call

Unlock Editor’s Digest for free

Roula Khalaf, FT Editor, picks her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Moldova’s President Maia Sandu criticized an “unprecedented attack” on the democratic process by “foreign powers” on Sunday as the referendum on EU membership remained too close to call. can call after more than 2/3 has been counted.

In the weeks leading up to the vote, the administration issued warnings about aggressive Russian interference, describing its fight against the Kremlin’s proxy network as a hydra and an onslaught of money. illegal to buy votes.

Sandu, who described the referendum as a historic choice for the ex-Soviet nation of 2.5 million people between a path west and back to Russia, also did not guarantee enough votes to win outright in the presidential race held on the same day.

In a brief statement to the press at her election headquarters late Sunday night, less than 2 minutes long, Sandu said her government had evidence that “criminal groups aimed to buy 300,000 votes” to influence the double vote.

“Cooperating with foreign powers hostile to our national interests, [they] attacked our country with tens of millions of euros, lies and propaganda,” Sandu said.

“We will not back down from defending democracy and freedom,” she added. “We are waiting for the final results and we will respond with firm decisions.”

After midnight Sunday, preliminary results showed about 53% of voters opposed joining the EU, a move Sandu has pledged to complete by 2030 after launching the effort shortly after Russia began its invasion. invasion of Ukraine two and a half years ago.

But even with about 80% of the votes counted, the result was too close to call because of the narrow margin and the potential influence of voters among Moldovan communities living in the west.

The narrow result in the referendum marked an unexpected surprise for Sandu, after polls consistently showed around two-thirds of the population favored joining the EU.

It also has the potential to enable Russia to sow division within Moldova, especially as opposition to both Sandu and the EU appears to be concentrated in rural and ethnic areas.

Preliminary results show that just 5% of voters in Gagauzia, a minority region that declared independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union but later accepted autonomous status in Moldova, voted in favor of the EU.

Ahead of voting day, law enforcement warned of a Russian campaign they could see underway to influence the vote, with an estimated $100 million spent on voter influence and bribery activities.

Police reported that one scheme after another aimed at bribing ordinary voters, including the use of money brought in by “money mules” on passenger flights from Moscow in the amount of significant face.

With Sandu’s bid for a second term supported by just 38% of voters early on Monday, she will now face Alexandr Stoianoglo, who finished second with 29% of the vote at the same time, in the two will be held next month.

A former prosecutor general and political newcomer, Stoianoglo’s candidacy was supported by the pro-Russian socialist party. If other candidates with small percentages of the vote fall behind him, the race next month could be extremely tight.

Sandu and her supporters had hoped for a resounding “yes” vote that would signal a clear decision by the people of Moldovan about their future. They are not required to call a referendum on EU membership at this point in the accession process, and some diplomats and observers describe it as a risky gamble.

However, her team said it wanted to take advantage of a moment when both the president and parliament were supportive of the EU, and the bloc itself was spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to accelerate Chișinău’s push. The EU has just committed Multi-year package worth 1.8 billion euros for Moldova to help the country on its path to accession.