Trump’s trading hit a snag after Selzer Iowa poll had Harris ahead
One of the nation’s best pollsters just raised a big warning sign for the Trump campaign.
On Saturday, J. Ann Selzer, an Iowa pollster renowned for her accuracy, released her final results. opinion polls before election dayshows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 47% to 44% in the Hawkeye State. Both campaigns see Iowa as a sure Trump victory. No Democrat has won Iowa since Obama in 2012. In 2016 and 2020, Trump won the state by 9 points and 8 points, respectively.
“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw this coming,” Selzer speak female Des Moines Registerreleased the poll for the first time. “She clearly jumped to the top.”
Selzer’s poll casts election forecasts into doubt. If Trump can lose a state widely expected to go Republican, perhaps it portends electoral defeat elsewhere, such as in key battleground states in the Midwest.
Prediction markets have been trending away from Trump following his now-infamous Madison Square Garden rally on October 27. Shares of Trump Media fell 35% last week, also due to the outlook in The election is dwindling.
But Selzer’s poll added pessimism to the so-called Trump trade in financial markets, which had previously priced in a Trump victory. Because Trump plans to implement such an unorthodox economic policy, centered on his signature proposal for blanket tariffs, many investors are preparing for what they think will be a huge fluctuations in the global market. Selzer’s poll refutes that assumption.
As a result, markets on Monday moved to prepare for Trump’s defeat. US dollar fall 0.7% on Monday, according to ARRIVE Bloomberg. The Mexican peso, arguably one of the hardest hit currencies under Trump’s tariff regime, rose 1.4% against the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro increased 0.6% against the dollar.
Stocks in Europe are trading at lower prices as they are expected to be hit hard by Trump’s tariffs. They lagged the broader market through October, according to an analyst note from Barclays was published last month. The euro’s surge seems to suggest that at least to some extent those concerns have eased.
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Monday as Trump’s policies were seen as inflationary, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates further.
Crypto markets also reacted to Trump’s declining election chances. Bitcoin price fell 1% on Monday. Trump has repositioned himself as a cryptocurrency advocate after his previous skepticism. In July at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Trump speak he wants the United States to become the “crypto capital of the planet.”
Cryptocurrencies used as currencies of record on some prediction markets have also responded to lower election chances for Trump. Betting site Polymarket, which only accepts cryptocurrency bets, saw Trump’s election odds drop from a 65% chance of winning on October 27 to 56% on Sunday night. On Kalshi, another prediction market, Trump was briefly overtaken by Harris as the favorite on Saturday night, hours after the poll was released. Odds for Trump on both sites have rebounded slightly but remain below their peak in late October.
However, a transaction previously tied to Trump’s election chances has swung in the opposite direction. Trump Media shares, which had previously fluctuated roughly in tandem with Trump’s campaign’s political outlook, rose on Monday. Trump Technology and Media Group owns the conservative social media platform Truth Social and is in the process of building and developing a streaming platform. Shares rose 3% on Monday to $31 a share. Although that price is down from $53 at the beginning of last week.
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