Why Embraer’s E-Jets will remain a mainstay for US regional airlines into the 2030s

If you’re flying on a regional flight in the United States today, chances are it’s on an Embraer E-Jet.

Their respective fleet plans show that the E-Jet family – specifically the E170 and E175 – make up about half of the 1,367 regional jets flying for Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines by the end of 2023. Less popular models include Mitsubishi’s and formerly Bombardier’s, the CRJ series and Embraer’s older ERJ series.

The E-Jet is so popular – it helps that there are no competing aircraft in production – that American Ordered another 90 E175s in March to supplement the more than 240 already in the American Eagle fleet. Not bad for a plane that first flew more than 20 years ago.

“The 175-E1 remains a great airplane for America,” Arjan Meijer, president and CEO of Embraer Commercial, said at an investor event in New York on Monday. “We believe there is a huge market waiting for us.”

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That market includes replacing older 50-seat aircraft, especially the CRJ200 and ERJ-145, as they disappear from U.S. skies. Schedule data from airline analytics firm Cirium Diio shows Delta affiliates flew their last CRJ200 flight in December 2023. United plans to phase out 50-seat models at affiliates branch within the next few years and American later this decade.

Meijer could not give an exact number of planes Embraer hopes to sell, because replacing the 50-seat regional jets will not be one-for-one due to pilot contract limits. However, he said, the market for E175-sized aircraft is still significant because many destinations across the United States are too small for larger aircraft such as the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families.

Regardless of the numbers, one thing is clear: US flyers can expect to see E175s in regular rotation throughout the 2030s – and possibly into the 2040s.

That’s both good news and bad news for Embraer. While continued E175 sales are positive for the Brazilian aircraft manufacturer’s bottom line, they come at the expense of the next generation E-Jet, known as the E2, being developed to replace original samples.

According to the company, the E175-E2 delivers double-digit fuel economy compared to the E175, also known as the E175-E1, plus more range and slightly more seating. The updated aircraft seats 80 passengers, instead of 76, with a two-class configuration that is standard in parts of the United States.

Despite those performance improvements, the E175-E2 has yet to receive any firm orders from the US. The lack of deals has left Embraer in 2022 certification delay of the aircraft until 2027 or 2028, at least three years later than planned.

The lack of interest is a result of strict regulations in the pilot contracts of Alaska, American, Delta and United. Those rules, called “scope clauses,” govern the size and number of regional aircraft that major airlines can contract with affiliates. They currently limit the size of regional jets to 76 seats with a maximum takeoff weight of 86,000 pounds; the E175-E2 is somewhat large and heavy, seating 80 passengers with a maximum takeoff weight of 98,767 pounds.

“The E175-E1, it’s such an amazingly powerful airplane, it basically eliminates the need to change the range clause,” Meijer said.

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Pilot contracts at Alaska, American, Delta and United that limit existing regional jet limits will not be renewed until 2026 at the earliest.

The E175 that American and other airlines buy today is not the plane that Embraer first flew in 2003. The addition of “wingtips” – angled extensions at the wing tips – in 2014 has improves fuel efficiency by more than 6% compared to the original model with unmodified wings.

With E175 and E2 sales continuing on hold, Embraer is in a position to take stock of what comes next for the regional aircraft segment. Meijer has said that work on developing a potential new turboprop that could hold up to 90 passengers is in a “deep freezer”. And while research into other new technologies, including hydrogen fuel cell propulsion and vertical takeoff and landing (or eVTOL) aircraft, continues, the plane maker has yet to set a direction. specifically for its next commercial aircraft.

“We are really investing in new technologies to stay ready for a new product,” Embraer CEO Francisco Gomes Neto said Monday. “At this point, we have no specific plans to go in one direction or the other.”

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