A far-right government in Austria would be a shock, but not unexpected

Political party on track to lead Austria would catapult an already conservative country into a group of countries increasingly moving to the far right in European politics. It has flirted with Nazi slogans, been friendly to Russia and drawn warnings from Holocaust survivor groups. It campaigned on promises to deport immigrants and ban political forms of Islam.

The Freedom Party, known as the FPÖ, and its firebrand leader Herbert Kickl were given the chance to form a governing coalition this week, after efforts to prevent them from seizing power collapsed . If they succeed in forming a government, it would be a shock to Austria’s political system and an even bigger shock to Western Europe, where similar far-right parties are emerging in France. , Germany and elsewhere.

But it wouldn’t be surprising.

The rise of the Freedom Party comes after years of increasing acceptance of the far right in Austrian politics. Its growth has been aided by scandals and ideological shifts within the more mainstream conservative party, which has led the Austrian government for 15 of the past 25 years.

Unlike in neighboring Germany, where all other parties refused to include the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany in the federal governing coalition, other parties in Austria have allowed the due to sharing power for many years as a junior partner.

The Liberal Party has broaden its appeal in the recent election with an anti-establishment message scathing criticism of immigrants, Covid restrictions, the European Union and support for Ukraine in defending it against a Russian invasion. The party received support from blue-collar workers, college graduates and, importantly, women. In this summer’s European Parliament elections, it was the most popular party among Austrian voters under 35 years old.

“The idea that the FPÖ is somehow politically taboo, that train left the station a long time ago,” said Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik, a political scientist at the University of Vienna.

The Freedom Party was founded by former members of the SS, the Nazi paramilitary force, in the 1950s. It was largely shunned in its early years, but then gradually became part of of the political establishment.

The party first entered the national government with the progressive Social Democrats in 1983 and has served in four governing coalitions since then, the most recent just six years ago. It also operates at the state level and is in union in most of Austria’s nine states.

Until the late 1980s, the Liberal Party was a small, elitist entity, primarily affiliated with a few nationalist university fraternities. A new leader, Jörg Haider, attracted more voters by adopting campaign rhetoric harshly critical of foreigners.

That focus has become the driving force of the modern party, honed and enhanced by Mr. Kickl, who wrote speeches for Mr. Haider early in his career. Mr. Kickl drove the group in increasingly provocative slogansincluding the xenophobia “Viennese Blood – too many foreigners benefits no one”.

In 2017, the Freedom Party joined a governing coalition with the conservative People’s Party. Karin Kneissl, then the Liberal Party’s pick for foreign minister, was widely criticized for dancing at her 2018 wedding to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. She has since moved to Russia.

The government and the coalition collapsed quickly in one scandal involving a hidden camera, a fake Russian heiress and a former leader of the Liberal Party in 2019.

During his time in power, Mr. Kickl served as the country’s interior minister, putting him in charge of immigration control, an integral theme of the party’s platform.

Back then, he made headlines for his proposal to “concentrate” refugees into centralized facilities. Although Mr. Kickl later insisted that he did not mean to be provocative, many believe that his use of the Nazi-era phrase referring to concentration camps was intentional.

It’s also not isolated. Mr. Kickl’s party has since repeatedly invoked the term “Volkskanzler” — “people’s chancellor” — that Hitler used.

While others in the party want to tone down anti-immigrant rhetoric, Mr. Kickl has capitalized on raw, emotional appeals to native-born Austrian workers. He exploited discontent with the wave of refugees arriving in Austria from the Middle East and then Ukraine. At the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, he rallied opposition to vaccine mandates, lockdowns and mask mandates.

During last fall’s election campaign, Mr. Kickl promised to build “Fortress Austria” — using strict border controls, forced deportations of immigrants and suspension of asylum rights. for refugees, this would require violating the European Union’s agreement on migration. He called for a reversal of climate change measures and a renewed focus on fossil fuels.

He also pushed for political changes that some analysts say will push Austria toward a more authoritarian model of government, akin to Viktor Orban in Hungary. Those changes include new referendum procedures allow a relatively small segment of the electorate to force a national vote to overthrow the government or dismiss individual ministers.

Mr. Kickl’s platform has attracted many voters, with the party winning the most seats in September’s parliamentary election. “Increasingly,” said Christoph Hofinger, an Austrian election researcher, There is a lot of demand for a certain toughness from politics.”

For some people, it causes alarm. After the election, Christoph Heubner, executive vice president of the International Auschwitz Committee, said that for Holocaust survivors, the victory added “an alarming new chapter to fear and anxiety.” their settlement”.

The Liberal Party has benefited in part from the People’s Party’s problems. The group won the prime ministership easily in 2017, after turning right on many issues. But the People’s Party quickly fell into a series of scandals, including one involving poll fraud published in the press. It also faces voter discontent over inflation and Covid restrictions, along with its most recent coalition partner, the Green Party.

After the election defeat, Karl Nehammer, the People’s Party’s current prime minister, said he would not join a coalition with Mr. Kickl. Many saw the promise made during the campaign as a play to retain the prime ministership rather than an ideological stance, as the two parties have a long history of cooperation in state and federal government.

“There has never been any fundamental criticism of the FPÖ’s understanding of democracy or the rule of law” from conservatives, Mr. Ennser-Jedenastik said.

Despite months of trying, the People’s Party could not form a coalition without the far right. And Mr. Nehammer announced his resignation as prime minister this week, paving the way for the Liberal Party to lead the coalition.

In a governing coalition, Mr. Kickl will not be able to fulfill all his promises. Austria’s next government will need to reduce its budget deficit, which could hinder his economic agenda, which includes tax cuts and increased social spending.

But the party’s popularity will give him a strong voice as he pushes for policy changes targeting foreigners and refugees, according to analysts. Possible among them are: cutting social services for non-German speakers or reducing financial aid for refugees.

In the fall election, 29% of Austrians voted for the Freedom Party. Current polling puts voter support at more than 35%.

“If Kickl feels the other side is not taking these negotiations seriously, then he will get up from the table and force an early election,” Mr. Hofinger said.