An overdue ceasefire in Gaza may stop the killing, but it will not end the conflict

A senior Palestinian official told the BBC that Hamas would release three female soldiers on the first day of the ceasefire. Mediators in Doha are trying to start the ceasefire earlier, on Thursday night instead of Sunday.

Until the ceasefire takes effect, the war that began when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023 continues. At least 12 Palestinians were killed in Israeli attacks on northern Gaza around the time the ceasefire was announced.

At times, in an even hourly ritual over the past 15 months, video broadcast from northern Gaza showed their bodies being carried out of ambulances in sheets and lined up outside hospitals.

The ceasefire is a significant diplomatic achievement. It’s long overdue. Versions of the deal have been on the table since it was announced by US President Joe Biden last May. Hamas and Israel have blamed each other for the delay.

At Khan Younis in Gaza, journalists working for the BBC filmed Palestinians dancing and chanting as a ceasefire was agreed.

Israel does not allow international journalists into Gaza to report freely, so the BBC and other news agencies must rely on brave Palestinian journalists to gather news for us. Coverage of the past 15 months of war would not have been possible without them. Israel has murdered more than 200 Palestinian journalists in Gaza.

Umm Muhammad, an elderly Palestinian woman, told one of our journalists that she felt happy and relieved.

“The pain has lessened a bit, though it’s still there. Hopefully it will be overcome with joy. Let our prisoners be released and the wounded treated. Everyone is exhausted .”

Aside from surviving, Palestinians in Gaza don’t have much to celebrate. Israel has killed at least nearly 50,000 people. More than two million people have been forced to leave their homes because of Israeli military action.

Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, which killed some 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, left Gaza in ruins. According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, Israeli attacks have killed nearly 50,000 people, both combatants and civilians. A recent study in the medical journal Lancet says that may be an underestimate.

In Tel Aviv, it was also a bittersweet moment for the families and supporters of the Israeli hostages, living and dead. In the first phase of the ceasefire, 33 women, elderly men and the sick and injured will be released over the next six weeks in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian detainees and prisoners – but the future of The remaining hostages are subject to more negotiations.

Negotiations on the second phase of the deal, the release of remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for imprisoned Palestinians, and Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza will begin 16 days after the deal. .

The first big challenge is ensuring the ceasefire holds. Senior Western diplomats fear that after the initial 42-day period, the war could continue.

The Gaza war has had enormous consequences across the Middle East. As many feared, it has not led to a general war in the region – the Biden Administration has claimed to recognize that – but it has led to geostrategic upheavals.

Hamas can still fight but it is only a shadow of what happened. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister have been accused of war crimes by the International Criminal Court. The International Court of Justice is investigating a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide.

After Lebanon’s Hezbollah intervened in the war, it was finally quelled by an Israeli attack. That was the factor that led to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran and Israel exchanged direct attacks – weakening Iran. The network of allies and proxies that Tehran calls the Axis of Resistance has been paralyzed.

Houthi forces in Yemen have halted most shipping between Europe and Asia passing through the Red Sea. Now reports say they have declared a ceasefire. Since they began attacking shipping at the beginning of the war, they have said that only a ceasefire in Gaza can stop them.

With luck, political will and tough diplomacy, the ceasefire will hold despite inevitable violations. With luck, it could stop the killing and return Israeli hostages as well as Palestinian detainees and prisoners to their families.

But after 15 months of war in Gaza, the century-old conflict remains as bitter and intractable as ever.

The ceasefire does not end the conflict. At the very least, the consequences of so much destruction and death will be felt for a generation.