Opinion polls predict a decisive majority for Narendra Modi in the Indian election

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Narendra Modi is poised to return to a third, five-year term as India’s prime minister, according to four opinion polls released on Saturday, forecasting a clear victory for his Bharatiya Janata Party. he and the party’s smaller allies.

Polls conducted by four Indian broadcasters and agencies all showed the National Democratic Alliance led by Mr. Modi winning a comfortable majority of 353 to 392 seats in the Lok Sabha, or House of Representatives, including 543 Indian seats.

That leaves Modi with strong power to form the next government, taking him into his second decade as prime minister.

In India’s most recent election in 2019, the NDA won 352 seats in the lower house. The Election Commission of India is scheduled to report official results on June 4.

The exit polls were published after the final round of voting in the marathon election ended on Saturday afternoon and a ban on the publication of exit polls, which applies to voting in The seven-phase election that began on April 19, has been lifted.

The election was held by each stage because of the logistical challenges of voting and counting as well as ensuring the security of polling stations in a country with a diverse geography and nearly 1 billion registered voters.

The results offer the first signs of the shape of India’s next parliament after an election that many saw as a referendum on Modi’s decade in power.

If the poll predictions are confirmed on Tuesday when official results are announced, the victory will cement Modi’s image as one of the world’s leaders. strongest leader at the helm of a rapidly growing economy, at a time when its geopolitical influence is growing.

Opinion polls have historically had mixed results in predicting Indian elections, but in recent years have proven to be a more reliable indicator of voter decisions. tri. In 2014 and 2019, opinion polls accurately predicted a win for the BJP-led NDA, but were numerically incorrect, predicting fewer seats than Mr. Modi’s bloc actually won. .

Shazia Ilmi, national spokesperson for the BJP, told the Financial Times: “I think this is exactly how things will play out and we will see a landslide victory for Modi, for the BJP this time. third consecutive year without any difficulty.”

The 73-year-old Indian leader campaigned with the slogan “Modi’s assurance”, referring to the government welfare program benefiting hundreds of millions of Indians and his achievements in reducing poverty and growing the world’s fifth largest economy. India’s GDP grew at a better-than-expected pace of 7.8% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to March and its economy is one of the fastest growing in the world. since the Covid-19 pandemic.

During the election campaign, the INDIAN opposition coalition sought to attack the BJP over its economic record, including persistently high unemployment, and accused the BJP of seeking to cripple the opposition. by imprisoned two state leaders and froze several congressional bank accounts just before the election.

Hours before the exit poll results were announced, senior members of the opposition alliance, including Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, announced that it was The opposition is ready to win.

Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge claimed that the INDIA alliance will get “at least more than 295 seats” – winning the election. Kharge claims opinion poll surveys are “government surveys because they have the means to manipulate the data”.

Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global Financial Services in Mumbai, said in a note that the results “show a solid win for the NDA”, with “better traction for the BJP” in states like Maharashtra and southern India, where opposition parties are strong. .

“While [the] The final outcome may differ from the polls, political continuity is likely to be good for risk assets in the immediate term and macro stability in the medium term,” she wrote.

This is an evolving story. . .