A mood of grim fatalism pervades the Tory ranks

A grim fatalism hung over the Conservative summer party in London on Thursday night as James Cleverly, the home secretary, appealed to sponsors, gentlemen and other guests at the Club. The elite Hurlingham set “stick together through good times and bad”.

Cleverly there is good reason to ask for solidarity as champagne glasses clink on the River Thames. Behind the scenes, Tory HQ directed party activists to campaign in his seat of Braintree, a once impregnable Essex stronghold with a majority of over 25,000 people.

“The army is being deployed to Braintree,” a senior Conservative figure has said, warning that the party’s support is “draining” from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and opens up the possibility of Labor wins in unlikely places.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak did not attend the Hurlingham fundraiser as he was 200 miles away in York attending a debate with the BBC, which was probably just as well, given the mood of resignation. “No one pretends that we will still win the election,” said one guest.

Party donors voted with their wallets. New figures show that in the second week of the campaign, Labor has won more than £4 million in private donationsalmost 15 times more than the £292,000 the Conservative Party has managed to scrape together.

The activists’ turn to Braintree is emblematic of a Tory campaign that is failing badly. The Conservative Party’s numbers say that in some cases, the party candidate – not activists – who are said to be fighting against northern seats have been deployed to knock on doors in the south of England.

Conservative campaign officials insist morale remains high and the party is starting to “land” some of its messaging. They deny the party is heading for an asteroid-level election event on July 4 as some polls have suggested.

Labor is also wary of the polls, some of which show extreme results. Savanna, for example, said the Conservatives could win just 53 seats and Labor was aiming for a staggering majority of 382 seats. Under that scenario, Sunak would lose his own Richmond seat.

A close ally of Sir Keir Starmer, the Labor leader, said polls also showed millions of voters were undecided, many seats were “too close to call” and “the Conservatives were shy.” shy” or those worried that a Labor landslide might change their views. Dial suddenly.

“If we make some fairly loose assumptions about ‘turnout’ rates, there could be about 5.4 million voters who will vote but are undecided about how to vote,” the ally said and emphasized that there would be no complacency in the closing stages of the campaign.

Yet Sunak’s campaign continues to stagger, with one misstep after another. In York, an audience member asked the prime minister whether he was “embarrassed” to lead the Conservative party.

In the latest failure of his election campaign, high-ranking figures close to him are being investigated for crimes allegedly placed bets for an election in July before Sunak announced the date. Tory HQ confirmed that campaign manager Tony Lee has “stepped down” from his role while the investigation continues.

Sunak said on Thursday: “I was extremely angry to learn of these allegations. It’s a really serious problem. I want to make it clear that if anyone breaks the rules, they will face the full force of the law.”

Sunak’s allies said he was personally disappointed. “He is loyal to those around him so this is extremely disappointing for him. That was a huge error in judgment. What stupidity,” one person said.

The Prime Minister has failed in his campaign to escape the narrative of a leader approaching the end of his time in office, stretching back to his somber announcement of the election in a rainy May downing Street .

His decision to return early from D-day events in France was a self-inflicted disaster, while this week he was attacked again for his unsuccessful attempt to feed a herd of Devon sheep.

YouGov on Friday said record 75% The British have an unfavorable opinion of Sunak, worse than Boris Johnson or Liz Truss at their most unpopular.

No one in Sunak’s camp further disputes that the Conservatives will win on July 4, but they believe there are signs that the prime minister can hold off the landslide election that the polls have called for. detector is predicting.

The final 12 days of the campaign will see the Conservatives deliver two of their most effective messages: that Labor will raise taxes and that it would be dangerous to let Starmer win with a “super majority.” number”.

“Both of those messages were really profound,” said one Conservative campaign official. “Labour’s vote share is going down, which shows what we are doing is working.”

The problem, as Sunak’s team acknowledges, is that Labour’s lead remains at more than 20 points, as the Conservatives’ poll position has been squeezed by defections of supporters party to Reformation UK.

The Conservative campaign hopes to win back some Reform-minded voters in the closing days of the campaign.

“Some of them want to burn everything,” said one Conservative Party official. “But others don’t like the Labor Party and are probably easier to convince.”

Sunak and Starmer will face off in a BBC debate next Wednesday in the election’s final showdown, as both parties prepare to make their final salute to voters.

But for some Conservatives, attention has turned to the day after the July 4 poll. One official said some Conservatives remained loyal to Sunak hoping to receive an honor politics, adding that they would be “angry” if not recognized.

Meanwhile at Hurlingham, guests took note potential future Tory leaders such as Kemi Badenoch, Grant Shapps and Priti Patel are working the table. One viewer said: “It feels like the end of an era – and the beginning of a new one.”