Hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza grow as pressure increases on Hamas and Israel

The outline of a ceasefire in Gaza and a hostage release agreement are currently being discussed by Israel and Hamas at indirect talks in Doha that have been on the negotiating table since May. So why the new prediction that it might work after being frozen for eight months of war?

Some things have changed – both politically and practically.

The first is Donald Trump’s election as the next US president.

He does threatening that “all hell” would break loose if the hostages are not released before he takes office on January 20.

Hamas may see it as a sign that even the flimsy brakes on which the Biden administration has tried to restrain the Israeli government will be lifted, though it’s hard to imagine what that could mean. What can we do for a territory that has been severely devastated after 15 months of war? .

Israel is also feeling pressure from the incoming president to end the conflict in Gaza, which threatens to hinder Trump’s hopes of reaching a broader regional deal and desired image. His work as president ended the war.

On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces continued pressure from his far-right coalition allies to continue the war.

But Trump could also be an asset to him in persuading his allies to accept the deal and stay in government; The new US president and his pick as Israeli ambassador are seen as supporters of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which Israel’s far-right Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said . has said he wants a merger.

But after meeting with the prime minister last night, Smotrich appeared unconvinced, writing on social media that the current agreement was a “disaster” for Israel’s national security and that he would not support it.

However, some in Israel believe that both Smotrich and his far-right ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, see their current roles in the Israeli government as the best opportunity to strengthen consolidate control over the West Bank, especially when Trump returns to Israel. White House, and that they are unlikely to follow through on their threat to resign.

The second thing that has changed is the increasing pressure on Netanyahu from his own military establishment.

Many key figures are said to have repeatedly challenged him over his waning military goals in continuing the war, following the killing of a top Hamas leader and the destruction of Gaza.

Last week, 10 Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, shedding light on the cost of the war for Israel and the perennial question of whether the “total victory” over Hamas promised by Netanyahu will be achieved. Are not.

Some analysts now say that Hamas is rebuilding faster than Israel defeated it, and that Israel therefore needs to reconsider its strategy.

And there is a third – regional – change that also affects expectations here: the weakening and erosion of Hamas’s allies in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”.from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, along with the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.

For all these reasons, now is seen as the best opportunity in months to close the gap between Israel and Hamas and end the war.

What hasn’t changed in the eight months since the last negotiations is the distance between them.

Key among them is the direct conflict between the primary concerns of Hamas, which wants to end the war, and of Israel, which wants to leave open the possibility of resuming the conflict, whether for political or military reasons.

Agree, as President Joe Biden outlined in Mayis divided into three phases, with a permanent ceasefire only in effect in phase two.

Success will now likely depend on whether assurances can be found to assuage Hamas’s fears that Israel will withdraw from the deal after the initial release of hostages.

Questions about how to manage the territory from which Israel has withdrawn are also unclear at this stage.

However, the diplomatic network spreading across the region in the past week and Mr. Netanyahu’s sending the head of Israel’s security agencies to talks in Doha along with a key political adviser are encouraging signs. .

So did the departure to Doha of the detained Palestinian coordinator, Qadoura Fares.

The deal is still not done – and previous negotiations have failed.

This old deal is sparking new hopes in part because the negotiations are taking place in a new regional context, with growing pressure both internally and from key allies abroad.