Hotspots identified in Africa, Asia and the Middle East
A ship stuck in the expanding salt marshes of Lake Urmia in Iran.
Hamed | AFP | Getty Images
The decline of global water resources should be considered one of the most pressing environmental security challenges of this century.
That’s the view of an expert in military geography and environmental security, who recently published a study examining the relationship between water shortageGeopolitics and the potential for violent conflict in a global warming.
Francis Galgano, associate professor of geography and environmental sciences at Villanova University in Pennsylvania, said poor management in highly vulnerable areas — especially in transboundary river basins — and The climate crisis is getting worse. are two main concerns.
“You have this management problem and you have the increasing impacts of drought and climate change. I think that is fundamentally destabilizing our ability [resolve water conflicts] peacefully and effectively,” Galgano told CNBC via video conference.
“I really hope I’m wrong,” he added. “But that’s my position and certainly the data seems to bear that out.”
The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) assess the governance performance of more than 200 countries.
Francis Galgano, associate professor in the Department of Geography and the Environment, Villanova University.
The prospect of water wars is a long-standing and active debate, with everyone from senior United Nations officials ARRIVE famous hydropolitical expert express their concerns about perceived risks.
However, others do more skepticalThe Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI), a non-profit organization with expertise in water management, has speak that even in a context where social conflict and violence may be on the rise, “water can be a bridge to peace negotiations rather than an agent or weapon of war”.
Water sustainability has become a increasingly urgent global challenges. It is estimate that half of the world’s population faced severe water shortages for at least part of the year, while data published Last year, the World Resources Institute warned that a whopping $70 trillion – or 31% of global gross domestic product – could be subject to water stress by 2050.
Activists and members of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hold empty water jugs and shout slogans during a protest against the state government over the ongoing severe water crisis in Bengaluru on March 12, 2024.
Idrees Mohammed | AFP | Getty Images
Increased competition for water in already arid regions, coupled with the positive impacts of climate change, has led to a slew of water-related headlines in recent months.
People in Mexico’s capital took to the streets in January to protest “unprecedented“Water shortage lasts for weeks, Iranian authorities warned In June, Tehran and more than 800 towns and villages were at risk of land subsidence and Moody’s Ratings recently speak India’s severe water shortage could hurt its credit strength.
The severity of the global water crisis has been further highlighted by an alarming increase in the number of security incidents, according to data cited by Control Risks in early June. establish that the average number of monthly water-related security incidents increased by more than 230% from the beginning of 2019 to May 2024.
These incidents include protests and violent unrest linked to water shortages or pollution, the global risk consultancy said, warning that the trend is “highly unlikely” to slow in the coming months.
Egypt-Ethiopia tensions
Galgano of Villanova University identified nine international river basins as hotspots where conflict is ongoing or at high risk of armed conflict.
These basins include the Nile River basin in Africa, the Tigris-Euphrates basin in Southwest Asia, and the Helmand and Harirud rivers along the border. Afghanistan and Iran.
Major international river basins are in conflict.
Francis Galgano, associate professor in the Department of Geography and the Environment, Villanova University.
In the Nile basin, Galgano said riparian states — that is, countries located along the river — have so far been unable to reach an agreement on a highly controversial dam, “and Egypt has officially let everyone know that they would go to war.”
Egypt and Ethiopia have been locked in a years-long dispute over Ethiopia’s construction of a 4 billion dollars hydroelectric dam on the main branch of the Nile.
Egypt is concerned The Great Ethiopian Renaissance Damor GERD, will have a devastating impact on water supplies and irrigation downstream unless Ethiopia takes its needs into account. There are concerns that the situation could spark all-out conflict.
“If [GERD] “If you’re going to significantly reduce the flow of water in Egypt, that’s definitely a flashpoint. They’ve been trying since 2011 to come up with some kind of structured agreement and they haven’t been able to do it. I see that as a real problem,” Galgano said.
Türkiye, Syria and Iraq
The Tigris-Euphrates rivers, which flow in roughly parallel courses through the central Middle East, are identified as a tipping point.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan “seems to be more entrenched in his narrow nationalist stance on some issues, so does he make the decision to actually stop the water? And then Iraq and Syria are really at a standstill,” Galgano said.
Iraqi fishermen fish in the Shatt al-Arab river, formed at the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, in the southern Iraqi city of Basra, on August 12, 2024.
Hussein Faleh | AFP | Getty Images
“You have the problem of water flowing into the Himalayas, with China — particularly western China. I don’t think there’s really anyone there who can really challenge them militarily, but it’s a flashpoint that we worry about,” he continued.
“Similarly, the Brahmaputra and the Indus rivers in the area between India, Pakistan and Nepal. Those are all major global hotspots.”
Amid concerns about the prospect of water wars, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in March published Here is a list of seven things countries and individuals can do to address looming water shortages.
Includes measures to protect and restore natural spaces, improve water use efficiency, address water leakage, exploit non-traditional water sources such as wastewater treatment and reuse, and apply integrated approaches in decision-making.
