How Nancy Pelosi tore off the bandaid for the Democrats to force Joe Biden out
In 2007, Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a highly influential book titled The Black Swan: The Impact of the Impossible. Taleb argues that Black Swan events (e.g., 9/11 or the rise of Google) share three criteria: they are extremely rare, extremely impactful, and—although exceptional— explainable and even predictable after the event occurs.
Both Donald Trump’s felony conviction and Joe Biden’s late withdrawal in favor of the dynamic Kamala Harris will be considered Black Swans if Harris goes on to win the election. These events are not only unlikely but also powerful; In retrospect, they were predictable. Why is a criminal president not held accountable and a weak president forced to resign? On the other hand, if Trump wins, the trial and the passing of the torch to Harris will pale in comparison to a Black Swan event, while his near-assassination will be considered an event.
If Trump loses the 2024 election, the key moment will be his decision on May 15 to agree to Biden’s request that they debate in June. Biden’s team hopes to restart the fight translated into an unprecedented debate in the middle of the year. That miscalculation caused him to fail in his candidacy. Trump could have ruined himself if he didn’t wait until the fall to debate, by which time it would be too late for Democrats to replace Biden.
I already knew what could happen. On Father’s Day, eleven days before After the historic debate on CNN on June 27, I spoke with a senior Democratic senator who told me that if Biden performed poorly in the debate, the Democratic Party would have to Find another presidential candidate. Surprised by this, I immediately broke (again) my New Year’s resolution not to conspire against Biden.
The debate was doomed from the moment the corpse president took the stage. The idea that, if somehow re-elected, he would still be president in 2028 at age 86 is alarming to many of his supporters. For half an hour, Trump controlled him. Biden is so weak that people not only ignored Trump’s dozens of lies but also his evil, which we now seem to take for granted. He even had the audacity to go after Nancy Pelosi for failing to defend the Capitol on January 6, when he incited the mob to kill her and his vice president and watched TV for 187 minutes without ordering help help. Biden has privately said that Trump is “sick” for repeatedly joking about the home invasion that almost killed Paul Pelosi. Why couldn’t the president have said something less profane during the debate? Why is he so bad?
The answer is clear. Age has robbed Biden of what political scientist Richard Neustadt taught me 45 years ago is the only real power any president has: the power of persuasion. He had been out of touch with the American people at least 18 months before that. It is now clear that he cannot be Harry Truman, the man who came from behind to defeat Tom Dewey in 1948. He cannot do that.
My family couldn’t bear to watch the debate to the end. I did, and I stayed up until 2 a.m. to write the first of three posts Opinion by The New York Times parts support an open audition process for a new nominee. That afternoon, time published a historic editorial calling for Biden to withdraw, describing his nomination as a “risky gamble.” Ezra Klein, Crooked Media, James Carville, David Remnick, Michelle Goldberg and Tom Friedman were among the major voices who initially insisted that the president resign immediately, with David Axelrod taking the view that Biden’s chances were “very fragile” also has a big impact.
