JD Vance’s pick adds to Europe’s fears about Trump presidency

European politicians and diplomats have been preparing for changes in their relationship with the United States in the event of Donald Trump winning a second term as president.

Now that the Republican nominee has chosen Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate, those differences are even more apparent over the prospects for war in Ukraine, security and trade.

A vocal critic of US aid to Ukraine, Mr Vance told this year’s Munich Security Conference that Europe should recognise that the US must “redirect” its focus to East Asia.

“The American security blanket has weakened European security,” he said.

Nils Schmid, a senior MP in German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party, told the BBC he believed the Republican presidency would remain within NATO, even if JD Vance appeared “more isolationist” and Donald Trump remained “unpredictable”.

However, he warned of a new round of “trade war” with the United States under a second Trump presidency.

After four years of Donald Trump, no one is naive anymore, said an EU diplomat: “We understand what it means for Trump to return as president for a second term, regardless of who his running mate is.”

The unnamed diplomat compared the EU to a sailboat preparing for a storm, adding that no matter what they might tie down, the storm would always be there.

The United States is Ukraine’s biggest ally, and President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week: “I’m not worried about him becoming president, we will work together.”

He also said he believes the majority of Republicans support Ukraine and its people.

Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Trump also have a mutual friend in Boris Johnson, the former British prime minister who has consistently supported continued aid to Ukraine and recently met the former president at the Republican National Convention.

After the meeting, Mr. Johnson posted on X that he “had no doubt that [Mr Trump] will be strong and decisive in supporting that country and defending democracy.”

But even if that sentiment is true, it may not apply to Mr. Vance, who told a podcast that he “doesn’t really care what happens in Ukraine, one way or another,” days before the full-scale invasion. He also played a key role in delaying a $60 billion military aid package from Washington.

“We need to try to convince him to think otherwise,” said Yevhen Mahda, executive director of the World Policy Research Institute in Kyiv.

“One fact we can use is that he fought in Iraq, so he should be invited to Ukraine so he can see for himself what is going on and how American money is being spent.”

The question for Kyiv is how much influence he can have over his new boss’s decisions.

Yevhen Mahda agrees that Trump’s unpredictability could be a problem for Kyiv ahead of the US presidential election.

The biggest supporter of the Trump-Vance ticket in the European Union is Hungary’s Viktor Orban, who recently returned from a visit to the Republican candidate, after meeting with Mr Zelensky and President Putin, with whom he maintains close ties.

In a letter to EU leaders, Mr Orban said a victorious Donald Trump would not even wait until he took office as president to quickly demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

“He had a detailed and well-founded plan for this,” the letter said.

Mr Zelensky himself said this week that Russia should attend a possible peace summit in November next year, and he promised to have a “completely ready plan”. But he made it clear that he was under no pressure from the West to do so.

Viktor Orban’s recent “peace missions” to Moscow and Beijing have sparked accusations that he is abusing his six-month rotating presidency of the European Council. European Commission officials have been asked not to attend meetings in Hungary because of Mr Orban’s actions.

During Trump’s presidency, the US imposed tariffs on EU-made steel and aluminum. Although they were suspended under the Joe Biden administration, Trump has since imposed a 10% tariff on all foreign imports if he returns to the White House.

The prospect of a new economic confrontation with the United States would be seen as dire, even catastrophic, in most European capitals.

“The only thing we know for sure is that the European Union will be hit with punitive tariffs, so we have to prepare for another round of trade wars,” said Nils Schmid, the Social Democrats’ foreign policy chief in the Bundestag.

Earlier this year, JD Vance criticized Berlin over its military preparedness.

While not intending to “criticize” Germany, he said the country’s industrial base to support weapons production was inadequate.

All of this will put more pressure on Germany, Europe’s largest economy, to “step up” its role as a key player in ensuring European security.

After his much-lauded “zeitenwende” (turning point) speech in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Olaf Scholz was often accused of hesitating to supply arms to Kyiv.

But his allies are keen to point out that Germany is second only to the United States in military aid to Kyiv while the country has met its 2% of GDP defence spending target for the first time since the end of the Cold War, albeit through a short-term budget.

“I think we are on the right track,” Mr. Schmid said. “We have to rebuild an army that has been neglected for 15 to 20 years.”

But observers are less confident that Europe’s behind-the-scenes preparations are serious or sufficient.

There are few leaders with enough political clout or inclination to support the future security architecture of a sprawling European continent.

Chancellor Scholz has a low-key style and is clearly reluctant to take bolder foreign policy stances – and faces the very real prospect of being voted out of office next year.

French President Emmanuel Macron has been severely weakened after calling parliamentary elections that plunged his country into political paralysis.

Polish President Andrzej Duda warned on Tuesday that if Ukraine loses its fight against Russia, “the possibility of war between Russia and the West will be very close”.

“This greedy Russian monster will want to attack continuously.”