Judgment day for the ANC and Modi, and perhaps even Trump

Hello and welcome to the work week.

We have entered a period of political closure, and perhaps a victory or two again, in this historic election year.

South Africa holds a general election on Wednesday with voter surveys suggesting the ruling African National Congress will lose the absolute majority it has held since 1994. A landmark moment turn if that happens. One will do not stand is former president Jacob Zuma. Read this to understand political nuances, and this by FT foreign editor Alec Russell to understand the problems facing ANC leader and current president, Cyril Ramaphosa.

Now there’s a correction to last week’s announcement that Donald Trump’s trial will end quickly in New York. It’s not, and it may not happen yet this week, but we’ve been told that closing arguments will begin on Tuesday and could last until Wednesday, after which the jury will begin deliberating. essay. So we are at a point where we can predict the length of a piece of string before making a judgment. Of course, this distracted the former US president. re-election campaign sponsor. Click here to sign up for our twice-weekly newsletter with all the details, US Election Countdown.

Polls will close in India’s parliamentary election on Saturday with an easy victory expected for two-term authoritarian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). his Hindu faith even as signs of a “cult of Modi” emerged. lost its luster. However, we will have to wait until June 4 to have the official results of this contest.

Mexicans go to the polls on Sunday. Claudia Sheinbaum, the incumbent party’s candidate, is leading by 20 to 30 points in the polls, although the opposition claims that many of these Surveys are biased.

The processing of economic data will move faster, at least at the beginning of the week, thanks to Memorial Day on Monday in the United States and the late May bank holiday in the United Kingdom. GDP updates are a theme, with revised first-quarter figures from the US on Thursday and fourth-quarter figures from India on Friday.

We’re nearing the end of the current earnings season, which means there’s only been a trickle of corporate reports. Hess Shareholders will vote on a $53 billion sale to the US oil major Chevron on Wednesday – or rather they may not. A stress dispute over oil-rich Guyana casting one overshadow the agreement.

Speaking of transactions, Wednesday is also the deadline to BHP to dictate the final price to its smaller rival British American after the latter extended takeover negotiations last week even after rejecting a third approach worth £38.6bn. BHP has until 5pm BST to make another offer. Click here to read more about Anglo’s “aggressive” plan to maintain independence.

Also, this is a quick fix for the upcoming FT event. Join more than 10,000 technology industry leaders and enthusiasts in Amsterdam on June 20-21 to attend the TNW Conference. Featuring more than 190 speakers, including former Danish prime minister and co-chair of Meta’s supervisory board Helle Thorning-Schmidt, and HSBC Europe chief executive Colin Bell. As a newsletter subscriber, sign up with our exclusive promo code FT-SUBS-50 to save 50% on regular parking fees.

One more thing . . .

Friday is the anniversary of a special day for millions of parents of children of a certain age: the first broadcast of the hit television series peppa pig. The Moules family is always larger Octonautsthen (of course) Which doctor?. But for those with fond memories, this is the one Charming piece from the FT archive provides some insight into the people and business model behind the world-famous grunt.

What are your plans for the next seven days? Are your priorities different from Last Week? Email me at [email protected] Or if you’re reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Important economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect from corporate reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the International Conference of the central bank’s Institute for Economic and Monetary Research in Tokyo.

• Germany: ifo May Business Climate Index survey

• Israel: interest rate decision

• UK: Spring bank holiday. Financial markets are closed.

• USA: Memorial Day. Financial markets are closed.

Tuesday

• Australia: April retail trade data

• EU: European Central Bank Economic Expectations Survey

• UK: British Retail Consortium Shop Price Index

• Result: soft cat Updated transactions for the third quarter, Victorian Plumbing HY

Wednesday

• Hess Shareholders vote on the $53 billion sale for Chevron.

• The deadline is 5pm (extended by a week last Wednesday) for BHP to make a formal bid for its smaller rival British American.

• Australia: Consumer price index (CPI) inflation index for April

• France: Consumer confidence data for May

• Germany: Data on consumer price index (HICP) inflation rate and preliminary harmonized index for May. In addition, data on GfK consumer confidence.

• United States: Federal Reserve Beige Book

• Result: Abercrombie & Fitch Q1, Agilent Technologies Q2, HP Q2, Impax Asset Management HY, JD sports fashion finance, Pets at home finance, Sales force Q1

Thursday

• EU: April unemployment data

• South Africa: interest rate decision

• US: revised first quarter GDP figures

• Result: Car dealer finance, Best buy Q1, Birkenstock Q2, Costco Q3, common dollars Q1, Dr. Martens finance, Distance Q1, Nordstrom Q1, extend financial year

Friday

• Vibration entertainment moved its listing on the main market of the London Stock Exchange from “premium” to “standard” to transfer the company’s main listing to the New York Stock Exchange.

• Canada: GDP figures for the first quarter

• EU: Eurozone preliminary HICP inflation rate estimates for May

• France: Q1 GDP plus preliminary CPI and HICP inflation figures

• Germany: April retail trade turnover data

• India: Fourth quarter GDP figures

• Japan: April labor force and industrial production figures

• UK: May nationwide house price index. Also, April effective interest rate data.

• US: April personal income data

World events

Finally, here’s a list of other important events and milestones this week.

Monday

• France: The French National Assembly has begun considering a bill allowing assisted suicide introduced by President Emmanuel Macron’s government.

• Kenya: African Development Bank members gather in Nairobi for the organization’s conference annual meetinglasts until Friday.

• Switzerland: 77th World Health Assembly, meeting of the supreme decision-making body of World Health Organizationopens in Geneva.

Tuesday

• Germany: French President Macron concludes a state visit to his country’s larger European neighbor.

• US: scheduled closing arguments in the trial of former president Donald Trump on charges of falsifying business records to pay ‘hush money’.

Wednesday

Thursday

• Czech Republic: NATO foreign ministers gather in Prague for a two-day informal meeting, expected to discuss the conflict in Ukraine against Russia.

• UK: Westminster Parliament dissolved before general election on July 4

• USA: annual final Scripps National Spelling Bee held this year at the Gaylord National Resort & Conference Center in National Harbor, Maryland.

Friday

Saturday

• The first day of meteorological summer

• Austria: Opec ministerial meeting of non-Opec countries, including Russia, to discuss market conditions and production adjustments.

• Iceland: presidential election

• India: parliamentary elections nearing end Results expected on June 4.

Sunday